Freeze Warning 1, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
323 PM CST TUE NOV 15 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT
TO ENTER THE CWA. WEAK PRE-FNTL TROF HAS DEVELOPED OUT AHEAD OF IT
FM ABOUT CHOKE CANYON TO LAREDO. APPEARS TALKED ABOUT CAP IS
ERODING...AT LEAST ACROSS THE NE THIRD OF THE CWA...AND SFC BASED
CAPES ANALYZED BY LAPS ARE BETWEEN 2500-3500 J/KG. FRONTAL
FORCING SHOULD HELP TO BREAK WHAT IS LEFT OF THE CAP ACROSS
EASTERN SECTION OF THE CWA...WHERE MOISTURE IS BEST POOLED. RADAR
TRENDS HAVE SHOWN SW EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE LINE IS SLOW TO EXPAND
FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST...BUT GIVEN THE ABOVE MENTIONED EROSION
OF CAP THINK IT WILL HAPPEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SO FOR
THIS EVENING WILL RETAIN POP CONFIGURATION ACROSS THE EAST FROM
PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT WILL LOWER OUT WEST TO JUST ISOLD ACROSS
LA SALLE AND WEBB (AND MAY LIKELY BE REMOVED ALL TOGETHER IN EVE
UPDATED GIVEN PRE- FNTL TROF THAT HAS DEVELOPED). STRONG 3 HR
PRESS RISES CONT NORTH OF THE FRONT (6-8 MB/3 HR) AND SHOULD
INCREASE DURING THE EVENING...ACCELERATING THE FRONT S AFTER
SUNSET. SO FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTH TO A COT-LRD LINE
BY 4 PM...TO A LRD-RKP LINE BY 5 PM...AND MVNG THRU CRP AROUND
PM.

NO REAL CHANGES TO THOUGHTS ON WIND BEHIND THIS FRONT FROM PREVIOUS
MORNING UPDATE. WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.

HAVE WENT AT OR A FEW DEGREES THE COOLEST GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TONIGHT. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 GIVEN THE GOOD
CAA. ALSO...OVC MID LEVEL DECK THAT WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT MAY BE
SLOWER TO ERODE TOMORROW THAN WHAT GFS IS INDICATING. GFS MOS
LOOKS WAY TO WARM HERE TOMORROW...SO HAVE AT OR A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MET.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN BAYS
AND NEARSHORE GULF WATERS (BETWEEN PORT ARANSAS AND PORT
OCONNOR) AROUND 430 PM...AND THE SOUTHERN BAYS AND NEARSHORE GULF
WATERS (BETWEEN BAFFIN BAY AND PORT ARANSAS) BETWEEN 6 PM AND 7
PM. THE FRONT WILL ACCELERATE INTO THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS DURING
THE EVENING. VERY STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...
25-30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE BAYS AND 30 TO 35
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS OVER THE GULF. SEAS OFFSHORE WILL
BUILD TO 10-13 FEET. AS A RESULT...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND AN SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
BAYS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR AND REMAIN IN PORT
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ALONG AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVAITION...STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH A VCT-COT LINE BY
22Z...LRD TO RKP BY 23Z...AND TO CRP BY 00Z. EXPECT SCT TO NUM
RWS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 21-00Z ALONG AND EAST OF A ALI
TO VCT LINE. VERY STRONG AND GUSTY N WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 40 KTS IN SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE
COASTAL BEND. EXPECT BKN-OVC 4-5K FT DECK TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT AS WELL.

&&

.LONG-TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL
LEAD TO COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON TO DATE. COULD SEE SOME AREAS
WITH READINGS BELOW FREEZING ESPECIALLY THE UPPER NUECES RIVER
VALLEY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD THRU
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GFS AND UKMET MODELS ARE STRONGER WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WHICH LEADS TO INCREASED MOISTURE RETURN FLOW AT 85H. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SUCH A STRONG FRONT...SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN AT
85H SEEMS DOUBTFUL AT THIS TIME. WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS POINT. A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON SATURDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT THE MOISTURE RETURN TO BE
SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT TO WARRANT MENTIONING
POPS FOR SUNDAY. WENT A CATEGORY BELOW GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR MINIMUMS
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY AND LEAD TO A FULL SCALE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE REINFORCED OVER THE REGION TUESDAY.

MARINE...SCA CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE
GULF WATERS BEFORE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    48  60  37  66  45  /  70  10   0   0  10
VICTORIA          41  61  33  64  40  /  40   0   0   0  10
LAREDO            47  63  40  69  50  /  20   0   0   0  10
ALICE             46  61  34  67  43  /  60   0   0   0  10
ROCKPORT          47  60  42  64  47  /  70   0   0   0   0
COTULLA           40  63  32  67  43  /  10   0   0   0  10
KINGSVILLE        49  60  35  67  43  /  70  10   0   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEE...GOLIAD...LA SALLE...LIVE OAK...MCMULLEN...AND
     VICTORIA.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: DUVAL...JIM WELLS...AND WEBB.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES...
     REFUGIO...AND SAN PATRICIO.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     AND BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: AND BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS
     TO PORT OCONNOR.

     GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO
     60 NM...AND WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 PM WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT
     ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20
     TO 60 NM...AND WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

JR/76...SHORT-TERM
TT/89...LONG-TERM