Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
334 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2005

.SHORT-TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...LARGE AREA OF SH/TSRA DEVELOPING
OVER THE COASTAL BEND AHEAD OF THE MID LVL TROUGH ATTM...WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINS FOCUSED ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH WAS DEVELOPING. EXPECT TRAINING ECHOES NEAR THE
PROXIMITY TO THE SFC BNDRY ACROSS DUVAL...KLEBERG...NUECES...SAN
PATRICIO COUNTIES THROUGH 12Z. HEAVY RAINS WILL SHIFT TO THE
EASTERN COASTAL BEND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BETWEEN 12-15Z.
EXPECT 1-2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENRALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281...WITH
ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. 03Z LAPS
SOUNDINGS INDICATE CAPES WERE RUNNING BETWEEN 1200-1500 J/KG WHICH
IS MARGINAL AND THE KCRP 88D VWP INDICATED A FAIRLY WEAK
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FROM THE SFC-H7 MB. BELIEVE PRIMARY CONCERN FROM
STORMS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAIN...HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM. BECAUSE OF THE DRY SOIL
CONDITIONS AND HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER AN ISOLATED FFW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

CONVECTION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE MID
LVL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA AND TEMPS WILL HEAT
UP...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST. CONSIDERING THE COLD MID LVL TEMPS AND
STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SEE ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH MID AFTN BEFORE
STRONG SUBSIDENCE MOVES IN. WILL TREND TEMPS CLOSER TO GFS MOS FOR
HIGHS TODAY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW ETA MOS FOR MINS TONIGHT. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL YIELD SOME FOG TONIGHT.
BELIEVE THE FOG WILL BE PATCHY AND CONFINED TO INLAND AREAS OF THE
COASTAL BEND SINCE MODELS PROG AN UNFAVORABLE SW WIND COMPONENT AND
A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND DEVELOPING CYCLONE OVER THE
SRN PLAINS.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS IN THE MARINE AREAS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO RESPOND TO
THE APCHG S/W AND DEVELOPING MCS OVER THE COASTAL BEND. WILL
CONTINUE THE SCAS FOR ALL AREAS UNTIL MID AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME
WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THE FLAGS FOR THE BAYS AND NEARSHORE
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...MVFR AND OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
MOST OF THE COASTAL BEND THROUGH 15Z AS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
THIS AFTERNOON OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END. EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG FROM ALI-NIR-VCT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROF/SHORT
WAVE WILL TREK N OF THE REGION ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEV FEATURE WITH A
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH S TX SUN NIGHT/MON MORN. AHD OF THE FRONT
SLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BREEZY/WINDY WITH SCAS LIKELY. WINDS
BRIEFLY DIMINISH AS THE BDRY MOVES THROUGH THEN QUICKLY STRENGTHENS
OUT OF THE N IN ITS WAKE. THE GFS IS MUCH DRIER WITH THIS FRONT THAN
THE ETA. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT...WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHC FOR NE AND OVER THE MARINE
ZONES WITH THE FRONT. DRIER/COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TUE
THEN RETURN FLOW SETS UP THROUGH WED WITH A WARMING TREND AND
INCREASING MOISTURE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE THU WITH
A SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP...MAINLY ERN CWA. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES THROUGH THE EXTENDED BUT HAVE KEPT THEM BELOW
THE MEX VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    82  61  86  58  73  /  80   0  10  20  10
VICTORIA          77  58  84  51  69  / 100   0  10  20  10
LAREDO            86  59  90  55  74  /  20   0  10  10   0
ALICE             84  58  88  56  73  /  70   0  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          79  64  80  56  70  / 100   0  10  20  10
COTULLA           83  55  88  49  73  /  30   0  10  10   0
KINGSVILLE        83  58  87  57  73  /  70   0  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM...AND WATERS
     PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS...
     BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR...
     COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM...AND
     COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM.

&&

JM/75...SHORT-TERM
TE/81...LONG-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
405 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2005

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-261800-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
405 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
COASTAL BEND THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL AFFECT THE COASTAL
COUNTIES MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 77 THROUGH NOON. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. NORTH OF HIGHWAY 77 RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED. THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT AND THROUGH MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN ALONG THE FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

JM/TE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
226 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2005

TXZ243-260900-
NUECES-
226 AM CST SAT NOV 26 2005

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS AFFECTING NUECES COUNTY...

AT 221 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CHAPMAN RANCH...OR 12 MILES SOUTH OF CORPUS
CHRISTI...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  CORPUS CHRISTI BY 240 AM CST.

SMALL HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND WINDS GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

94