Flash Flood Warning 20, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

000 
WGUS74 KCRP 110238
FFSCRP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
935 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2005

TXC479-110415-
WEBB-
935 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN WEBB COUNTY...

AT 935 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER NORTHWEST 
WEBB COUNTY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. RADAR ESTIMATES OF 3 
TO 5 INCHES HAVE OCCURRED ALONG HIGHWAY 44 AND HIGHWAY 83 WEST OF 
ENCINAL...AND AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE AS THESE 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING VERY SLOWLY.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 2820 9940 2804 9940 2803 9935 2804 9932
      2793 9930 2777 9981 2778 9982 2777 9985
      2784 9989 2820 9994

$$

94

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
340 PM CDT SAT SEP 10 2005

.SHORT-TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...WELL POP FORECAST
ACROSS THE CWA DID NOT PAN OUT AT ALL TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE GULF AND MAYBE THE FAR NE COUNTIES. DEEP LAYER FLOW REMAINED
MORE SRLY THAN WAS EXPECTED...AND THUS MOST OF THE CONVECTION
REMAINED IN THE MOIST CONVEYOR BELT ACROSS THE GULF AND UP INTO SE
TX. HOWEVER...AS TEMPS CLIMBED INTO THE MID 90S OUT ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED THIS AFTN...WITH LAPS
SHOWING SFC CAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG W OF AN ALI-COT LINE. THIS IS
ALSO CLOSER TO DIVERGENT UPR LVL FLOW ANALYZED BY RUC. THINK THIS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY AREA THRU SUNSET TO SEE ADDITIONAL RW AND TSTMS
DEVELOPMENT...AND THUS WILL HAVE 40-50 POPS FOR THE EVENING OUT
WEST. DO ANTICIPATED RW/TSTM COVERAGE TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER LLJ TONIGHT. THE
WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT AXIS WILL BE STRETCHED N-S TOMORROW AROUND
UPR LVL RIDGE CNTRD ACROSS THE MID MISS RIVER VALLEY...AS WELL AS
NUDGED SLIGHTLY MORE WWD. THEREFORE DESPITE LACK OF COVERAGE ACROSS
LAND TODAY...DO EXPECT MORE COVERAGE TOMORROW ALONG THE COASTAL BEND
IN THE MORNING AND UP INTO NRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE AFTN.
AS WITH THIS EVENING...THINK SCT POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY
EVENING TOMORROW...OUT WEST. DRIER AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK IN FROM
THE NE INTO THE FAR NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA AND OFFSHORE WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL ANTICIPATE AT LEAST ISOLD/SCT STREAMER TYPE RWS
OVER THE GULF WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD/SCT RWS AND TSTMS WILL CONT ACROSS S TX THRU
SUNSET...PRIMARILY W OF AN ALI-COT LINE AND E OF A VCT TO RKP LINE.
VSBLTYS MAY BE REDUCED INTO MVFR CAT LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE ALI-VCT
CORRIDOR...DUE TO BR. EXPECT RWS/TSTMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND STREAM INTO THE COASTAL BEND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU THE
EARLY EVE. ANTICIPATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A WEAK
TO MODERATE SE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THRU TOMORROW.

&&

.LONG-TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...GFS CONSISTENT DRG THE TWO
MOST RECENT RUNS WITH RESPECT TO THE PSN OF THE UPPER LOW/TUTT LOW
PROGD TO MOVE ACRS THE REGION BY THU...YET WITH MOST OF THE
ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT SOUTH OF THE CWFA. HWR...THE NOGAPS
PROGS THE UPPER LOW TO BE SUPPRESSED BY A DEVELOPING UPPER RIDGE AND
THUS NOT AFFECT THE REGION. CONCUR WITH THE GFS. THUS...EXPECT
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DECREASING PW VALUES ACRS THE REGION BY
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
INCREASING SOMEWHAT BY THU AS THE UPPER LOW AXIS MOVS WEST. THE
NOGAPS/GFS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT SUBSIDENCE FRI/SAT. MONDAY...EXPECT
SCT CONVECTION OWING TO SIGNIFICANT MSTR. TUE-WED...WL FCST VERY LOW
POPS AS A BALANCE BETWEEN SUBSIDENCE AND SEA/LAND BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. THU...WL ISSUE HIGHER POPS OWING TO LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW. FRI/SAT...WL FCST DRY CONDITIONS OWING TO
SUBSIDENCE/LIMITED MSTR ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS

CORPUS CHRISTI  075 087 075 090 074 / 40 70 30 30 10
VICTORIA        073 087 073 091 073 / 40 70 30 30 10
LAREDO          076 095 077 094 076 / 50 50 50 40 30
ALICE           074 089 074 092 073 / 40 60 30 30 20
ROCKPORT        076 086 077 088 078 / 50 70 30 30 10
COTULLA         073 092 073 094 073 / 50 50 50 40 30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

76...SHORT-TERM
87...LONG-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
600 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2005

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-102100-
ARANSAS-BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-BEE-CALHOUN-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LASALLE-LIVE OAK-MCMULLEN-NUECES-
REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-WEBB-
600 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS.  TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY OVER
PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.  WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF AN ALICE TO THREE
RIVERS LINE.  SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING ROADS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.  ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME.  THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THESE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME ANY FLOODING WHICH COULD HAPPEN IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
ISOLATED.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.  AT THIS TIME...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

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