Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
447 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

.SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...UPPER LOW REMAINS ELONGATED
OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE THIS MORNING WITH STRONGER S/W
MOVING JUST EAST OF THE BIG BEND REGION NOW.  COPIOUS MOISTURE IN
PLACE ALONG WITH DISCERNIBLE BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NEAR HBV TO
NORTH OF RKP IS HELPING TO INITIATE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS
MORNING.  ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF CRP
IN AREA OF GOOD MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.  WITH UPPER LOW STILL OVERHEAD
AND DECENT H25 DIVERGENCE GIVEN THIS TIME OF YEAR...WILL MAINTAIN
HIGH POPS ACROSS THE REGION FOR TODAY.  ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND LATER TODAY WITH THE HELP OF SOME HEATING IN
THE UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT.  AS WITH THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...A FEW
STORMS COULD BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LIMITS...BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND WILL MENTION THIS IN THE
ZONES AND HWO.  ALTHOUGH FFG VALUES HAVE COME DOWN...AREAS THAT SAW
HEAVY RAINFALL ON THURSDAY GOT A BREAK YESTERDAY...SO THINK THAT
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN SCATTERED ENOUGH IN
COVERAGE AT ANY GIVEN TIME TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.  UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TO THE WEST LATER TONIGHT AND
WILL KEEP HIGHEST POPS OUT WEST FOR TONIGHT.  UPPER RIDGING WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE BACK IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT MOISTURE AND
AFTERNOON HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG-TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/NAM
THAT THE UPPER TROUGH WL DISSIPATE AS AN UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCES THE
REGION. YET...ANTICIPATE ISOLD CONVECTION THROUGH MONDAY NGT OWING
TO LOCAL FORCING/LINGERING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. BASED ON THE MOST
RECENT HNC TRACK OF EMILY...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WL LIKELY
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTN AND CONTINUE THROUGH WED AFTN. WL INCREASE POPS
ACCORDINGLY AND REMOVE THUNDER DRG THAT PERIOD. AFTER EMILY MOVES
AWAY...THE UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE. YET...EXPECT
LOCALLY-GENERATED ISOLD/SCT CONVECTION THU/FRI OWING TO LINGERING
TROPICAL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS

CORPUS CHRISTI  091 077 094 077 094 / 70 40 40 20 20
VICTORIA        089 075 093 075 096 / 70 30 50 20 20
LAREDO          097 077 103 079 103 / 60 50 30 20 10
ALICE           094 075 097 075 101 / 60 40 40 20 20
ROCKPORT        089 079 091 080 090 / 70 30 50 20 20
COTULLA         096 074 099 076 101 / 70 50 40 20 10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

91/DUNN...SHORT-TERM
87...LONG-TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
550 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-162100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
ARANSAS-BEE-CALHOUN-DUVAL-GOLIAD-JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-LA SALLE-LIVE OAK-
MCMULLEN-NUECES-REFUGIO-SAN PATRICIO-VICTORIA-WEBB-
550 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS THROUGHOUT THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA
CROSSROADS.  ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AS DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS.  WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...SOME
STORMS MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LIMITS THIS AFTERNOON.  THE MAIN
THREAT TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  MANY AREAS ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS HAVE RECEIVED 3 TO 5 INCHES
OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.  SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
OVER THE REGION. HIGH MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ACCORDING TO THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...HURRICANE EMILY WILL MOVE SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

DUNN
WC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
405 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

TXZ244-160930-
SAN PATRICIO-
405 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WESTERN SAN PATRICIO COUNTY...

AT 401 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF EDROY...OR 10 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF MATHIS...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.  THIS STORM IS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

DUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
615 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

TXZ234-161215-
VICTORIA-
615 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER VICTORIA COUNTY...

AT 610 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DACOSTA...OR 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
VICTORIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS OF 40 TO
50 MPH...TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN VICTORIA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
TELFERNER...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

DUNN