Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Cleveland, OH

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 302000
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
400 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

OHC155-302030-
/O.CON.KCLE.SV.W.0126.000000T0000Z-050630T2030Z/
TRUMBULL OH-
400 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2005


...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 430 PM EDT FOR
TRUMBULL COUNTY...


AT 351 PM EDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS REPORTED CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES EAST OF NORTH BLOOMFIELD
TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BRISTOLVILLE...AND MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH.


LAT...LON 4125 8053 4118 8062 4118 8063 4145 8099
      4149 8094 4149 8066 4148 8063 4141 8052
      4126 8052

$$

BM

000 
WWUS51 KCLE 302036
SVSCLE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
436 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

OHC155-302046-
/O.EXP.KCLE.SV.W.0126.000000T0000Z-050630T2030Z/
TRUMBULL OH-
436 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2005


...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR TRUMBULL COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
430 PM EDT...

LAT...LON 4125 8053 4118 8062 4118 8063 4145 8099
      4149 8094 4149 8066 4148 8063 4141 8052
      4126 8052

$$

THOMPSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
210 PM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

.SHORT TERM(TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...
COLD FRONT MOVEMENT THROUGH THE WARNING AREA WILL BE THE BIG CONCERN
OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.  CURRENTLY MCS MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA AT A RAPID PACE.  THIS LINE WAS GENERATED BY THE
REMANANTS OF AN OLD CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT WAS GENERATED LAST
NIGHT.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS EVENING
OVER THE EAST SECTIONS OF THE CWA WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM.  THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED OVER THE WEST SINCE THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE ALREADY WORKED THIS AIR MASS.  THE CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO THE WEST OVER IL.  THE AIR MASS
IN THIS AREA IS VERY UNSTABLE. CAPE VALUES OVR IL EXCEEDING 3000 IN
SOME AREAS.  WITH THIS IN MIND...I EXPECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANOTHER
SQUALL LINE TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  WE SHOULD SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST.  GUIDANCE VALUES OVERNIGHT VARY FROM LOW
CHANCE FROM THE FWC TO LIKELY POPS FROM THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE.  I
AM LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE LIKELY POPS FOR TONIGHT FOR THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.  I WILL KEEP HIGH CHC POPS FOR ALL
OTHER AREAS.  FRIDAY MORNING IS TRICKY.  WHERE WILL THE FRONT BE AND
HOW FAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL THE PCPN BE.  THE PCPN COULD BE WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND LEAVE MOST AREAS HIGH AND DRY ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...I AM NOT COMFORTABLE LEAVING OUT POPS BEFORE THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.  I WILL KEEP CHC POPS ALL AREAS
FRI MORNING AND BRINGING DRYING THROUGH THE DAY.  TEMPS WILL RUN
NEAR GUIDANCE VALUES SINCE THE NUMBERS ARE REASONABLE AND FAIRLY
CONSISTENT.
&&

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT THRU THU)...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.  A RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE ON
SUNDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE TEMPS TO START TO CRAWL BACK INTO THE
80S.  BY MONDAY WE SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH WARM AIR ADVECTION TO LIFT
TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID 80S.  A COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUE.  THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS NOT CERTAIN BUT IT
SHOULD IMPACT AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF THE AREA BY 00Z
WED.  I WL KEEP CHC POPS ALL LOCATIONS FOR TUE BUT THE BEST THREAT
WILL BE IN THE NW.  THE GFS SHOWS THE FRONT BOUNDARY STALLING OVER
THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF OHIO ON WED.  A WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT
AND MOVES EASTWARD.  IF THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON WED.  A SECOND WAVE MAY DEVELOP ON
THE FRONT AS EARLY AS THU.  THESE WEAK WAVES ARE DIFFICULT FOR THE
MODELS TO HANDLE...LET ALONE ON DAY 6 AND 7.  I WILL KEEP CHC POPS
FOR THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.  WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
TRENDS OF THE EXTENDED MODELS TO DETERMINE IF THE FRONTAL LOCATIONS
AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE WAVES IS CONSISTENT.

&&
.AVIATION  (12Z-12Z)...
WIDESPREAD MARGINAL VIS WITH FOG/HAZE THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO
PREDOMINATELY VFR BY MID MORNING. SQUALL LINE STRETCHING FROM MI TO
NWRN INDIANA MOVING EAST AROUND 40KT  SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS IT
MOVES INTO SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS...BUT COULD REACH A TOL TO
FDY LINE BEFORE IT DOES DISSIPATE.

THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON CONDITIONS BECOME UNSTABLE WITH CAPES
EXCEDING 2000 J/KG AND LIS -4 TO -6 PRODUCING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FORECAST AREA...EXPECIALLY WESTERN OHIO.  THEN
OVERNIGHT THE COLD FRONT NOW ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE
INTO NE BY THIS TIME SATURDAY.
&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.OH...NONE.
.PA...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...GTG
LONG TERM...GTG
AVIATION...BC

...CORRECTED TIME

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
524 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-011100-
ASHLAND OH-ASHTABULA INLAND OH-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE OH-CRAWFORD PA-
CRAWFORD OH-CUYAHOGA OH-ERIE OH-GEAUGA OH-HANCOCK OH-HOLMES OH-
HURON OH-KNOX OH-LAKE OH-LORAIN OH-LUCAS OH-MAHONING OH-MARION OH-
MEDINA OH-MORROW OH-NORTHERN ERIE PA-OTTAWA OH-PORTAGE OH-
RICHLAND OH-SANDUSKY OH-SENECA OH-SOUTHERN ERIE PA-STARK OH-
SUMMIT OH-TRUMBULL OH-WAYNE OH-WOOD OH-WYANDOT OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AKRON...ASHLAND...ASHTABULA...
BOWLING GREEN...BUCYRUS...CANTON...CHARDON...CLEVELAND...ELYRIA...
ERIE...FINDLAY...FOSTORIA...FREMONT...JEFFERSON...LORAIN...
MANSFIELD...MARION...MEADVILLE...MEDINA...MILLERSBURG...
MOUNT GILEAD...MOUNT VERNON...NORWALK...PAINESVILLE...PORT CLINTON...
RAVENNA...SANDUSKY...TIFFIN...TOLEDO...UPPER SANDUSKY...WARREN...
WOOSTER AND YOUNGSTOWN
524 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTION OF NORTHERN OHIO AND A
PORTION OF NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A COLD FRONT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TOLEDO AND
FINDLAY AREAS IS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...WHILE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
NORTHERN OHIO IS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS PLACED MOST OF OHIO UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL HAVE HAIL OF AT LEAST
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND WINDS 58 MPH OR GREATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED EXTREME EASTERN OHIO AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY WILL BE EAST OF AKRON AND CLEVELAND...AND MAINLY IN THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MRD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1043 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

OHZ003-006>008-017-018-027-301542-
HANCOCK OH-LUCAS OH-OTTAWA OH-SANDUSKY OH-SENECA OH-WOOD OH-
WYANDOT OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WOOSTER
1043 AM EDT THU JUN 30 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF MICHIGAN
SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF INDIANA.  THIS LINE HAS
SEVERAL THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS.  A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

THE LINE WAS MOVING TO THE EAST AROUND 40 MILES AN HOUR.  THIS
MOVEMENT WILL BRING THE LINE OF STORMS NEAR TOLEDO...BOWLING GREEN
AND FINDLAY IN BETWEEN 1130 AM TO NOON.  THE LINE WILL REACH PORT
CLINTON...FREMONT...TIFFIN AND UPPER SANDUSKY SHORTLY AFTER NOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.