Alert archive / Ohio / Lake Effect Snow Warnings in 2005

Lake Effect Snow Warning 1, NWS Cleveland, OH

November 16, 2005Crawford County, Erie County, Pennsylvania; Ashtabula County, Geauga County, Lake County, Ohio

NWS Cleveland, OH issued this lake effect snow warning at Nov 16, 2005, 3:37 PM EST for Crawford County, Erie County, Pennsylvania; Ashtabula County, Geauga County, Lake County, Ohio. It took effect at Nov 16, 2005, 10:08 PM EST. It was in force for 23 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Nov 16, 2005, 3:37 PM EST (20:37 UTC)
In effect from
Nov 16, 2005, 10:08 PM EST
Expired
Nov 17, 2005, 9:19 PM EST
In force
23 hr
Issued by
NWS Cleveland, OH

Counties Ashtabula County, OH, Geauga County, OH, Lake County, OH, Crawford County, PA, Erie County, PA

The radar

The Cleveland radar (KCLE), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:39 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Pittsburgh, PA (KPIT), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 160 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Pittsburgh, PA at 12:00Z on 2005-11-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Pittsburgh, PA at 12:00Z on 2005-11-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 76 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
649 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
76 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
118 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WWUS41 KCLE 162037
WSWCLE

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
337 PM EST WED NOV 16 2005

PAZ001-002-170445-
/O.UPG.KCLE.LE.A.0001.051117T0700Z-051117T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KCLE.LE.W.0001.051117T0500Z-051118T1200Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ERIE...EDINBORO
337 PM EST WED NOV 16 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
7 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
7 AM EST FRIDAY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT. 

COLD AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
TO DEVELOP AND BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT. A BAND OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND BEGIN MOVING ONSHORE
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY BE MIXED WITH RAIN AT FIRST
CLOSE TO THE LAKE...BUT EVENTUALLY TURN TO ALL SNOW LATE TONIGHT.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE...LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES...THROUGH
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

IN ADDITION...WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...MAINLY ON THURSDAY. 

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 2 TO 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT
...MAINLY IN THE INLAND LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY. AN
ADDITIONAL 6 TO 8 INCHES IS EXPECTED THURSDAY COUNTY WIDE...WITH A
STORM TOTAL OF 8 TO 12 INCHES BY FRIDAY MORNING.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

OHZ011>013-170445-
/O.EXB.KCLE.LE.A.0001.051117T1200Z-051118T1200Z/
CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON
337 PM EST WED NOV 16 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. 

COLD AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. THE SNOW COULD BEGIN
MOVING ONSHORE OVER LAKE COUNTY BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE
EXTECTED TO THEN SPREAD INLAND AND CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT AS WELL.

FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL 6 TO 8 INCH AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...MAINLY FROM
NORTHEAST CUYAHOGA COUNTY...EAST INTO LAKE AND GEAUGA COUNTY.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS ON
THIS UPCOMING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT.

$$

OHZ014-089-PAZ003-170445-
/O.EXT.KCLE.LE.A.0001.051117T1200Z-051118T1200Z/
ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JEFFERSON...ASHTABULA...MEADVILLE
337 PM EST WED NOV 16 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. 

COLD AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. THE SNOW COULD BEGIN MOVING
ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN ASHTABULA COUNTY BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE BANDS GETS PUSHED ONSHORE. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXTECTED
TO CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF ASHTABULA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL 6 TO 8 INCH
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS ON
THIS UPCOMING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT.

$$
5 follow-up statements
000 
WWUS41 KCLE 170308
WSWCLE

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1008 PM EST WED NOV 16 2005

OHZ014-089-171115-
/O.UPG.KCLE.LE.A.0001.051117T1200Z-051118T1200Z/
/O.EXA.KCLE.LE.W.0001.051117T0500Z-051118T1200Z/
ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JEFFERSON...ASHTABULA
1008 PM EST WED NOV 16 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

COLD AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. THE SNOW COULD BEGIN
MOVING ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN ASHTABULA COUNTY BEGINNING EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE BANDS GETS PUSHED ONSHORE. SNOW SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL.

FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF ASHTABULA COUNTY LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL 4 TO 7 INCH
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS ON
THIS UPCOMING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

PAZ001-002-171115-
/O.CON.KCLE.LE.W.0001.051117T0500Z-051118T1200Z/
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ERIE...EDINBORO
1008 PM EST WED NOV 16 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY. 

COLD AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
DEVELOP AND BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT.  A BAND OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND LATER TONIGHT MAINLY CLOSE TO THE
LAKESHORE. THE BANDS WILL EXPAND FURTHER INLAND ON THURSDAY.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 2 TO 4 INCHES OVERNIGHT
...MAINLY CLOSE TO THE LAKESHORE. AN ADDITIONAL 6 TO 8 INCHES IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY COUNTY WIDE...WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 8 TO 12
INCHES BY FRIDAY MORNING.

IN ADDITION...WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW...MAINLY ON THURSDAY.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

OHZ011>013-PAZ003-171115-
/O.CON.KCLE.LE.A.0001.051117T1200Z-051118T1200Z/
CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON...
MEADVILLE
1008 PM EST WED NOV 16 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EST
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM EST THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. 

COLD AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT. THE SNOW COULD BEGIN
MOVING ONSHORE OVER LAKE COUNTY BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
THEN SPREAD INLAND AND CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS
WELL.

GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY LATE TONIGHT. LOCAL 4 TO 6 INCH
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...MAINLY FROM
NORTHEAST CUYAHOGA COUNTY...EAST INTO LAKE AND GEAUGA COUNTY.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.

PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA WILL NEED TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS ON
THIS UPCOMING LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT.

$$
000 
WWUS41 KCLE 170920
WSWCLE

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
420 AM EST THU NOV 17 2005

OHZ012-171730-
/O.UPG.KCLE.LE.A.0001.051117T1200Z-051118T1200Z/
/O.EXA.KCLE.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-051118T1200Z/
LAKE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MENTOR
420 AM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

COLD AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE ERIE HAS ALLOWED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SHORELINE. SOME OF THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY
TODAY...WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. EXPECT THE SHOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES TODAY AND
ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT. ALONG WITH THE SNOW...WIND GUSTS TO
35 MPH WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW WHICH WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES
AT TIMES.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

PAZ003-171730-
/O.UPG.KCLE.LE.A.0001.051117T1200Z-051118T1200Z/
/O.EXA.KCLE.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-051118T1200Z/
CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MEADVILLE
420 AM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. ANOTHER 3 TO 5 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH MAY
CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW...REDUCING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY
HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY.
IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID
CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS
OR UPDATES.

$$

OHZ014-089-PAZ001-002-171730-
/O.CON.KCLE.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-051118T1200Z/
ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JEFFERSON...ASHTABULA...ERIE...EDINBORO
420 AM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY. 

COLD AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW THIS MORNING TO
BE NEAR THE LAKESHORE...BUT SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY AS THE
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST.

AREAS NEAR INTERSTATE 90 CAN EXPECT 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL
TODAY...WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT. AREAS FURTHER INLAND
CAN EXPECT 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY AND ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES
TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

OHZ013-171730-
/O.UPG.KCLE.LE.A.0001.051117T1200Z-051118T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KCLE.LE.Y.0001.051117T0920Z-051118T0500Z/
GEAUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHARDON
420 AM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SHIFT INLAND. THE NORTHERN
PART OF GEAUGA COUNTY CAN EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY WITH
1 TO 3 INCHES TONIGHT. AREAS OVER FAR SOUTHERN GEAUGA COUNTY CAN
EXPECT LOCALLY AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

OHZ011-171730-
/O.UPG.KCLE.LE.A.0001.051117T1200Z-051118T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KCLE.LE.Y.0001.051117T0920Z-051118T0500Z/
CUYAHOGA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CLEVELAND
420 AM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS JUST OFFSHORE OF CUYAHOGA COUNTY WILL MOVE
ONSHORE TODAY. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PART OF CUYAHOGA COUNTY...GENERALLY NEAR THE
LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND. THIS AREA CAN EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER 1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT EAST OF CLEVELAND BEFORE THE SNOW
SHOWERS DIMINISH AS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND ONCE AGAIN SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME BLOWING
SNOW...REDUCING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

ELSEWHERE IN CUYAHOGA COUNTY...AN INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATION CAN BE
EXPECTED IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGH TONIGHT.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

MRD
000 
WWUS41 KCLE 171515
WSWCLE

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1015 AM EST THU NOV 17 2005

OHZ013-172315-
/O.UPG.KCLE.LE.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-051118T0500Z/
/O.EXA.KCLE.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-051118T1200Z/
GEAUGA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CHARDON
1015 AM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS SHIFT INLAND. THE NORTHERN
PART OF GEAUGA COUNTY CAN EXPECT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY WITH
2 TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT. AREAS OVER FAR SOUTHERN GEAUGA COUNTY CAN
EXPECT AN 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

OHZ014-089-PAZ001-002-172315-
/O.CON.KCLE.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-051118T1200Z/
ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JEFFERSON...ASHTABULA...ERIE...EDINBORO
1015 AM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

COLD AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL ALLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW THIS MORNING TO
BE NEAR THE LAKESHORE...BUT SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY AS THE
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST.

AREAS NEAR INTERSTATE 90 CAN EXPECT 4 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW TO FALL
TODAY...WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT. AREAS FURTHER INLAND
CAN EXPECT 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY AND ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES
TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL LIKELY
CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

OHZ012-172315-
/O.CON.KCLE.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-051118T1200Z/
LAKE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MENTOR
1015 AM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...


COLD AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE ERIE HAS ALLOWED LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SHORELINE. SOME OF THE SNOW...
ESPECIALLY TODAY...WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES. EXPECT THE SHOW
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO
6 INCHES TODAY AND ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES TONIGHT. ALONG WITH THE
SNOW...WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH WILL CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW WHICH
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

PAZ003-172315-
/O.CON.KCLE.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-051118T1200Z/
CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MEADVILLE
1015 AM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

EXPECT LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS WINDS
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH. ANOTHER 3 TO 5 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH MAY
CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW...REDUCING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

OHZ011-172315-
/O.CON.KCLE.LE.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-051118T0500Z/
CUYAHOGA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CLEVELAND
1015 AM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST
TONIGHT...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS HAS MOVED INTO CUYAHOGA COUNTY. THIS BAND
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE EXTREME NORTH PART OF CUYAHOGA
COUNTY...GENERALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE EAST OF CLEVELAND. THIS AREA
CAN EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER 1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT EAST OF
CLEVELAND BEFORE THE SNOW SHOWERS DIMINISH AS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BAND ONCE AGAIN SHIFTS OFFSHORE. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH MAY ALSO
CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW...REDUCING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES.

ELSEWHERE IN CUYAHOGA COUNTY...AN INCH OR LESS ACCUMULATION CAN
BE EXPECTED IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THROUGH
TONIGHT.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$
000 
WWUS41 KCLE 172007
WSWCLE

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
307 PM EST THU NOV 17 2005

OHZ014-089-PAZ001-002-180415-
/O.CON.KCLE.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-051118T1200Z/
ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JEFFERSON...ASHTABULA...ERIE...EDINBORO
307 PM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE MAIN
INTENSE BAND OF SNOW OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH. THE BAND OF SNOW
WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AND THEN SHIFT BACK SOUTH LATE TONIGHT SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90. THE BAND WILL THEN MOVE BACK NORTH TO THE LAKE
SHORE BY SUNRISE. 

SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MOST INTENSE BAND. AREAS NEAR
INTERSTATE 90 CAN EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 8
INCHES TO FALL TONIGHT. AREAS FURTHER INLAND CAN EXPECT 2 TO 5
INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE LAKE SHORE...WILL LIKELY CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT FROM THE BLOWING SNOW REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

OHZ012-180415-
/O.CON.KCLE.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-051118T1200Z/
LAKE-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MENTOR
307 PM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE MAIN
INTENSE BAND OF SNOW OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH. THE BAND OF SNOW
WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AND THEN SHIFT BACK SOUTH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE INLAND
SNOW BELT AREAS. THE BAND WILL THEN SHIFT BACK NORTH TO THE LAKE
SHORE TOWARD SUNRISE.

THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MOST INTENSE BAND. AREAS 
NEAR INTERSTATE 90 CAN EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF
6 TO 8 INCHES TO FALL TONIGHT. AREAS FURTHER INLAND CAN EXPECT 1
TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE LAKE SHORE...WILL LIKELY CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT FROM THE BLOWING SNOW REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

OHZ013-PAZ003-180415-
/O.CON.KCLE.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-051118T1200Z/
GEAUGA-CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARDON...MEADVILLE
307 PM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE MAIN
INTENSE BAND OF SNOW OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH. THE BAND OF SNOW
WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AND THEN SHIFT BACK SOUTH LATER TONIGHT TO THE INLAND
SNOW BELT AREAS OF GEAUGA AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES. THE BAND WILL
THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE LAKE SHORE TOWARD SUNRISE.

THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MOST INTENSE BAND. AREAS 
NEAR INTERSTATE 90 CAN EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF
3 TO 5 INCHES TO FALL TONIGHT. AREAS FURTHER INLAND CAN EXPECT 1
TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE LAKE SHORE...WILL LIKELY CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT FROM THE BLOWING SNOW REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

OHZ011-180415-
/O.EXT.KCLE.LE.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-051118T1200Z/
CUYAHOGA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CLEVELAND
307 PM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE MAIN
INTENSE BAND OF SNOW OSCILLATES NORTH AND SOUTH. THE BAND OF SNOW
WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY NORTH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE AND THEN SHIFT BACK SOUTH LATER TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN
CUYAHOGA COUNTY. THE BAND WILL THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE LAKE SHORE
TOWARD SUNRISE.

THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MOST INTENSE BAND. AREAS 
NEAR INTERSTATE 90 IN NORTHEASTERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY CAN EXPECT AN
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES TO FALL TONIGHT.
AREAS FURTHER INLAND CAN EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE LAKE SHORE...WILL LIKELY CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
TRAVEL WILL BE DIFFICULT FROM THE BLOWING SNOW REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW
IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL
BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN
ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

$$

LOMBARDY
000 
WWUS41 KCLE 180219
WSWCLE

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
919 PM EST THU NOV 17 2005


OHZ012>014-089-PAZ001>003-180330-
/O.CAN.KCLE.LE.W.0001.000000T0000Z-051118T1200Z/
LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-
SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MENTOR...CHARDON...JEFFERSON...
ASHTABULA...ERIE...EDINBORO...MEADVILLE
919 PM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY AND WILL NO
LONGER POSE A THREAT. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...WITH LOCALLY UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

$$

OHZ011-180330-
/O.CAN.KCLE.LE.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-051118T1200Z/
CUYAHOGA-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CLEVELAND
919 PM EST THU NOV 17 2005

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS CANCELLED THE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR CUYAHOGA COUNTY. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW HAS
DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY. AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN EXTREME EASTERN CUYAHOGA COUNTY OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF THE COUNTY WILL SEE LESS THAN AN INCH.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this lake effect snow warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Cleveland, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before this lake effect snow warning went out at Nov 16, 3:37 PM EST, 0 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 16, 3:37 PM EST, 0 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
337 PM EST WED NOV 16 2005

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU FRI)...

SNOW BELT AREAS (REST OF THE AREA SEE BELOW)...

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE AREA THIS MORNING ALLOWING
FLOW TO BECOME WELL ALIGNED FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW.  BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES DROPPED QUICKLY OVER MICHIGAN ALLOWING RAIN SNOW MIX TO
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW.  SOME LIGHT SNOW HAS BEGUN TO FALL IN
NORTHERN OHIO AND AREAS TO THE WEST ALREADY.  LATEST RADAR IS
SHOWING PRECIPITATION STARTING TO FORM IN A FAIRLY WIDE BAND UP THE
MIDDLE OF LAKE ERIE AND OVER INDIANA.  ACTIVITY TO THE WEST IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WORK STATION ETA MODEL INDICATES AN INTENSE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT WILL
DEVELOP OVER LAKE ERIE AND SHOULD BE GOING STRONG BY 03Z TONIGHT.
THIS BAND WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SOUTH TO THE LAKE SHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WE FEEL THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TIME
OVER THE WATER FOR THE COLD AIR MASS TO BECOME MODIFIED TO KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION ALL RAIN ALONG THE LAKE SHORE.  THEREFORE...WE ARE
EXPECTING SNOW TO BEGIN ACCUMULATING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED FOR ERIE COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA FOR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

THE LAKE SNOW BAND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FURTHER SOUTH BY SUNRISE INTO
EASTERN CUYAHOGA...LAKE...GEAUGA...AND CRAWFORD PA COUNTIES. A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ASHTABULA COUNTY IN OHIO
AND CRAWFORD COUNTY PENNSYLVANIA AND BE HOISTED FOR CUYAHOGA...LAKE
AND GEAUGA COUNTIES FOR TOMORROW AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

I AM EXPECTING WINDS TO BE 15 TO 25 MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS SO THERE COULD BE COME BLOWING AND DRIFTING
OF THET SNOW.

THE FLOW DOES NOT REALLY SHIFT MUCH UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN IT BECOMES
MORE SOUTHWEST AGAIN.  THEREFORE...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SNOW SHOWERS INTO FRIDAY EVENING.  A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO TAPER
OFF.

REST OF THE AREA...

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING PLACE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT.  BRISK WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT THEN DIMINISH BY MORNING.

RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS TO THE WEST INDICATE THERE ARE A FEW SNOW
FLURRIES FALLING SO WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF FLURRIES THIS EVENING.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND THEN WARM AIR WILL BEGIN
TO RETURN BY FRIDAY EVENING.

STAYED CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM(FRI NGT THRU WED)...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO OCCUR AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THAT TAKES ITS TIME GETTING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.  THIS COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA JUST IN TIME FOR THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

LONG RANGE GFS SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
AND SLIDING SOUTHEAST WHILE DEEPENING AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. THIS SCENARIO CAN SET THE REGION UP FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENT. EUROPEAN MODEL APPEARS TO AGREE
WITH THIS SCENARIO AS WELL AS VIGOROUS VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO THE BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  FLOW SHOULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR EVEN MORE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS STATES ALLOWING ARCTIC BLAST TO HIT THE AREA.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS WEATHER PROBLEM TO SEE HOW IT
EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

I WILL MENTION SNOW FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT ONLY A CHANCE AT
THIS TIME.

STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MEX GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z-18Z)...
SFC LOW NR HUDSON BAY ATTM MOVG NE WL ALLOW GRADIENT TO SLOWLY RELAX
AND WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH.  WRAP AROUND MSTR HWVR WL CONT THRU
MUCH OF THE PD ALTHOUGH XPC CIGS AFTER 06Z OR SO TO INCR TO VFR IN
FM TOL TO FDY.  ELSEWHERE WITH TEMPS DECREASING AND WINDS TURNING
WLY TO WNWLY XPC SNOW SHOWERS DWNSTRM OF LAKE ERIE...SPCLY AFTER
06Z-08Z TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT KERI AT FIRST ALTHOUGH
AS WINDS TURN MORE NWLY AFTER 12Z SNOW BANDS WILL MOVE MORE INLAND
AND AFFECT KCLE-KYNG-KCAK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.OH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH OHZ011>014-089 7 AM THU THRU 7 AM FRI.
.PA...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING PAZ001-002 MID TONIGHT THRU 7 AM FRI
AND LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH PAZ03 7 AM THU THRU 7 AM FRI.
.LERI...GALE WRNG IN EFFECT.
&&

SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...TK
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 16, 5:24 AM EST, 10 hours 13 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
524 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005

OHZ003-006>011-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-171030-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-HANCOCK-SENECA-
HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-
ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
524 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIND ADVISORY THROUGH NOON...WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...A FEW
TREES...LIMBS AND POWER LINES COULD COME DOWN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LEZ142>149-162>169-171030-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY OH TO RENO BEACH OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
524 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

GALE WARNING TODAY AND LOW WATER POSSIBLE ON THE WEST END OF THE
LAKE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

OHZ012>014-089-PAZ001>003-171030-
LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-
SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD-
524 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
WIND ADVISORY THROUGH NOON...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...A FEW
TREES...LIMBS AND POWERLINES COULD COME DOWN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WATCH LATE TONIGHT EAST OF LAKE AND GEAUGA COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH THURSDAY FOR EAST OF LAKE AND GEAUGA
COUNTIES. FOUR TO EIGHT INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE IN THE
WATCH AREA. IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY WITH SOME BLOWING SNOW LOWERING
THE VISIBILITY. FOR LAKE AND GEAUGA COUNTIES 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW
IS FORECAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

KIELTYKA

The office that day

Everything else NWS Cleveland, OH issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 16, 4:34 AM ESTLake Effect Snow WatchCLECrawford, Erie41 hr
Nov 15, 8:34 PM ESTSpecial Marine WarningCLE41 min

Nearby

Lake Effect Snow Warnings in Ohio, 2005Lake Effect Snow Warnings in Pennsylvania, 2005Every lake effect snow warning in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.