Special Marine Warning 113, NWS Charleston, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
325 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE IS PROVIDING A LOW LEVEL FOCUS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE AND SHOULD
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE PULLS AWAY AND HEATING IS LOST.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY SO WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO CWFA ON
SATURDAY NIGHT SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUN THRU FRI/...MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE WILMA. MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF LARGE SCALE
FEATURES THAT WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT WILMA NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
FLORIDA AND OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.

APPEARS THAT SUNDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IN WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S. H5 TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIP INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HELPING TO STEER WILMA NORTHWARD
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WILMA WILL PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC AND CONTINUE ON ITS
NORTHEASTWARD PATH. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE MON AND MON
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...AS WILMA MAKES HER CLOSEST
APPROACH. IN FACT...MON COULD BE A RATHER RAW DAY...HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA...BUT IF LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN OCCUR...COULD SEE MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO 60.

AS WILMA CONTINUES TO PULL INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC TUE THROUGH
THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...RESULTING IN
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHT COOLER THEN NORMAL.
MODELS INDICATE THAT A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY APPROACH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...FOR NOW WILL MENTION SLGT CHC POPS IN GA COASTAL ZONES AND
KEEP A DRY FORECAST ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTH WINDS THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY VEER SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AND THEN WEST ON SATURDAY AND NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. SEAS IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE TONIGHT WILL
BUILD ONLY A LITTLE WITH THE OFFSHORE WINDS.

BEHIND COLD FRONT...EXPECT NW WINDS AOB 20 KT SUN AND SUN
NIGHT...WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT COASTAL WATERS...AND 3 TO 5 FT OUTER GA
WATERS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO HURRICANE WILMA AS IT IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GOMEX INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MON. THE
SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD...TO THE EAST OF THE
WATERS MON NIGHT. WILL LIKELY NEED SCA HEADLINES MON THROUGH
TUE...POSSIBLY INTO TUE NIGHT. MAY EVEN NEED GALES AT SOME POINT AS
WILMA MAKES HER CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE AREA. EXPECT THAT AS WILMA
CONTINUES TO PULL FURTHER AWAY FROM THE WATERS TUE NIGHT AND
WED...THAT WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO 20 KT OR LESS...WITH SEAS
DIMINISHING TO 2 TO 4 FT COASTAL WATERS...AND 3 TO 5 FT OUTER GA
WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY VEER TO WEST BY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SCW/JRJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141-SCZ040-
042>045-047>051-221000-
CHARLESTON HARBOR-
WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SC OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM EDISTO BEACH SC TO SAVANNAH GA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT
20 NM...INCLUDING GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
60 NM-JENKINS-SCREVEN-CANDLER-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-TATTNALL-EVANS-
INLAND BRYAN-COASTAL BRYAN-INLAND CHATHAM-COASTAL CHATHAM-LONG-
INLAND LIBERTY-COASTAL LIBERTY-INLAND MCINTOSH-COASTAL MCINTOSH-
ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-INLAND COLLETON-DORCHESTER-BERKELEY-INLAND
JASPER-BEAUFORT-COASTAL COLLETON-CHARLESTON-COASTAL JASPER-
1100 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
.MARINE INTERESTS...MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THE TRACK OF HURRICANE
WILMA. GUSTY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS COULD POSSIBLY IMPACT THE
COASTAL WATERS DEPENDANT ON THE PATH THE STORM TAKES OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST ON WILMA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

24/SCW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
408 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0359 PM     HAIL             3 NE SUMMERVILLE        33.05N 80.14W
10/21/2005  1.00 INCH        BERKELEY           SC   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED JUST NORTH OF I-26 ON 17A.
            TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

JRJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
451 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             3 NW SUMMERVILLE        33.05N 80.21W
10/21/2005  1.50 INCH        DORCHESTER         SC   PUBLIC

            SLIGHTLY SMALLER THAN GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED. SIZE
            AND TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

JRJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
517 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

SCZ043-212145-
INLAND COLLETON-
517 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT COLLETON COUNTY THROUGH
545 PM EDT...

AT 517 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WALTERBORO...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN
AND AROUND WALTERBORO...DRAWDY...THAYER...RHODES CROSSROADS...
SIDNEY...ROUND O...GLOVERVILLE...HIOTTS AND COTTAGEVILLE THROUGH 545
PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

MTE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
602 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0554 PM     HAIL             9 NW LUDOWICI           31.80N 81.85W
10/21/2005  1.00 INCH        LONG               GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON HIGHWAY 301 NORTHWEST OF
            LUDOWICI.

&&

JRJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
603 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

GAZ101-118-212245-
EFFINGHAM-INLAND CHATHAM-
603 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EFFINGHAM COUNTY AND CHATHAM
COUNTY THROUGH 645 PM EDT...

AT 603 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER MELDRIM...OR ABOUT 14 MILES NORTH
OF RICHMOND HILL...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND MELDRIM...BLOOMINGDALE...MEINHARD...
TUTENS AND WILLIAMS THROUGH 645 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
747 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

GAZ140-141-220045-
COASTAL MCINTOSH-INLAND MCINTOSH-
747 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT MCINTOSH COUNTY THROUGH 845 PM
EDT...

AT 747 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 3 MILES NORTH OF EULONIA...OR ABOUT 14
MILES NORTH OF DARIEN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THIS STRONG
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND WARSAW...TOWNSEND...
SOUTH NEWPORT...JONES...HUXFORD...BRICKSTON...EULONIA...FAIRHOPE...
PINE HARBOR AND SHELLMAN BLUFF THROUGH 845 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.