High Wind Watch 7, NWS Caribou, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
320 PM EST WED NOV 23 2005

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
LIFTING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN AND CREST OVER THE STATE LATER TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THANKSGIVING
SPREADING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SNOW
WILL CHANGE TO RAIN OVER DOWNEAST AREAS BEFORE THE LOW LIFTS NORTH
INTO QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT. A BLUSTERY DAY WILL FOLLOW WHILE THE
LOW CONTINUES NORTH INTO QUEBEC ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
TWO ISSUES TO DEAL W/ THIS FCST PERIOD... FIRST...PRECIP ECHOES
EXPANDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS ATTM IN RESPONSE TO
UPPER SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING SRN AREAS... THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL INTERACT W/ THE COLD FRONT JUST E OF THE FA LATER TODAY TO
INDUCE A WEAK SFC WAVE OVER WRN NB BY THIS EVE. THIS SFC WAVE THEN
XPCTD TO LIFT NE AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT... WILL KEEP LIKELY
POPS GOING E CENTRAL AND NE THIS EVE AND WILL MENTION ACCUMS OF
1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE...

THEREAFTER...HGH BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATER TNGT BUT IS
QUITE SHORT-LIVED AS INTENSE UPPER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC
CLIPPER SYSTEM RACE RAPIDLY E FROM THE GRT LAKES... THIS SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SNOW OVER THE FA LATE THU AM SPREADING NE
THRU THE ERLY AFTN.  INTENSE BUT SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED W/ THIS SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE W THU AFTN
THEN PIVOTS N INTO QUEBEC THU NGT. BECAUSE IT WILL BE A QUICK
HITTER...HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WNTR WX ADV FOR THE CENTRAL AND N
FOR THU AFTN INTO THU EVE. AS TOMORROW IS THANKSGIVING...WILL BE
LOTS OF LOCAL TRAVELING W/ PEOPLE HEADING HOME IN THE EVE WHEN
THERE IS XPCTD TO BE A BRIEF BURST OF HEAVY SNOW SO FELT IT
PRUDENT TO ISSUE THE ADV ATTM TO GET THE WORD OUT ERLY. STILL
THINKING 4-8 INCHES FOR THE HGHR ELEVS OF THE W AND N W/ 3-6
INCHES NE AND N CENTRAL. CRITICAL THICKNESSES...PRIMARILY BL
TEMPS...SUGGEST PRECIP TO CHG TO RAIN DOWNEAST INTO E CENTRAL
AREAS AS STRONG LL ERLY JETS ADVECTS SOME WARMER MARITIME AIR IN
FROM THE E. PRIMARILY SNOW UP N AND W BUT COULD SEE A CHNGOVER UP
INTO ZN 2 FOR AWHILE THU EVE...

BESIDES PRECIP...INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED W/ 925 JET MAX
OF GREATER THAN 60 KTS PROGGED INTO THE FAR SE SUGGEST ANOTHER
ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS AND HAVE ISSUED A HGH WND WATCH
FOR ZNS 16/17/29/30 FOR TOMORROW AFTN INTO EVE. SOME CONCERN AS TO
HOW MUCH WILL MIX DOWN AS ERLY WNDS NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED
FOR STRONG WINDS BUT HARD TO IGNORE SUCH A STRONG LL JET AND
BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER DOES INDICATE SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS
WILL MIX DOWN SO WILL SEE...

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
(FA) ON SATURDAY WITH QUIET WX CONDS ON TAP. OTHERWISE..DURING
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONGER RANGE FCST PORTION WE WILL BE LOOKG
AT A BROAD AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF WAA...WITH CLDS AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT PCPN FROM TIME TO TIME. THIS IS IN GENERAL RESPONSE
TO A LOW CONFIDENCE PATTERN CHANGE WITH HEIGHTS RISING IN THE
EAST AND TROFING OVER THE 4 CORNERS LIFTING INTO THE CNTRAL
UNITED STATES.

APPEARS CHC FOR PCPN SAT NITE/ERY SUNDAY IN THE NORTH...WITH
AFOREMENTIONED WAA PTN...THEN ANOTHER SHOT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERMAL PTN WILL WARM ENUF FOR MAINLY RAIN SHWRS NEXT WEEK...
IF PTN CHANGE HOLDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
XPCT MVFR MOST AREAS INTO TNGT W/ CONDS POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO VFR
LATER TNGT AS SHORT WAVE EXITS AND HGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS IN.
CONDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AT KBGR BEFORE 18Z THU W/ THE
APPROACH OF THE NXT SYSTEM...

&&

.MARINE...
WILL CONT TO HEADLINE GLW THU AFTN INTO THU NGT W/ THE APPROACH OF
THE RATHER INTENSE CLIPPER FROM THE W.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MEZ001>006-010 FROM NOON THURSDAY
     TO MIDNIGHT FRIDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MEZ016-017-029-030 FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 8
     PM THURSDAY.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ050 FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO NOON FRIDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM/MARINE...KHW
LONG TERM/MARINE...STUREY
AVIATION...WOLFE

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