Tornado Warning 6, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
955 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
MOST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. MODERATE INSTABILITY TODAY WITH
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. MAY HAVE INTERACTION OF SHORWAVE
WITH OLD CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES FROM LAST NIGHT. TWEAKED SKY GRIDS
TO REFLECT GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS BY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES MADE.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 332 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT ARE THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS ARE CAUGHT IN
BASE OF UPPER RIDGE. SO IT WILL NOT MOVE VERY MUCH UNTIL THE RIDGE
BREAKS DOWN OR A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THAT IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
LIFT IT OUT. ONE UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST TODAY BUT ANOTHER BUILDS
EAST NEAR THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SO IT LOOKS LIKE
THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL STAY PUT FOR THE SHORT TERM ANYWAY.
IT LOOKS MORE LIKE A CUT OFF LOW ON THE MODEL PROGS. WEAK SHORT
WAVES SHOULD ROTATE AROUND THE SYSTEM AS WELL. NAM IS NOT PULLING
A SHORT WAVE OVER THE AREA TODAY. BUT THE RUC MODEL HAS ONE
APPROACHING BY 18Z AND BELIEVE A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MOVED THROUGH ALABAMA AND GEORGIA
LATE YESTERDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. LIS -4/-5...TOTALS 42/43 AND
KIS JUST OVER 30 ARE SORT OF MARGINAL BUT PWS NEAR 2 INCHES AND
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING CAPES EXPECTED TO GET CLOSE TO 2000...
THINK THERE WILL BE PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WILL GO 20-30 PERCENT THIS MORNING AND 60 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL DROP BACK TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE TONIGHT. WITH
GOOD AFTERNOON HEATING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND MORE WEAK SHORT
WAVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED...WILL INCLUDE 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD. HIGHS NEAR 90 AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
NO REAL CHANGES TO EXTENDED PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS DENNIS
SHOULD FILL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND. BERMUDA RIDGE LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND COVER
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

AVIATION...
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A FEW AREAS
COULD HAVE SOME FOG THIS MORNING PRODUCING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. ANY
FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING. SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR MOST OF THE DAY...EXCEPT DURING SHRA/TSRA WHEN MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR.

FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...MIXING HGT 2800 FT. TRANSPORT WINDS SOUTHWEST 12 MPH.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
452 AM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-
140815-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
452 AM EDT TUE JUL 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA..

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1246 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

SCZ030-035-131715-

AIKEN-BARNWELL-
1246 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT AIKEN COUNTY AND BARNWELL COUNTY
THROUGH 115 PM EDT...

AT 1246 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 2 MILES WEST OF WILLISTON...
OR ABOUT 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF BARNWELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.
THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND
WINDSOR...WILLISTON AND ELKO THROUGH 115 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
153 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HAIL             GASTON                  33.82N 81.10W
07/13/2005  0.88 INCH        LEXINGTON          SC   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL AND ESTIMATED 60 MPH WIND IN GASTON
            REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

&&

KILMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
221 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0147 PM     TSTM WND DMG     11 W ST. MATTHEWS       33.66N 80.97W
07/13/2005                   CALHOUN            SC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CALHOUN COUNTY EOC REPORTS TREES DOWN ON SC 6.

0205 PM     TSTM WND DMG     15 SW WINNSBORO         34.22N 81.28W
07/13/2005                   FAIRFIELD          SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HIGHWAY DEPT REPORTS TREES DOWN VICINITY OF JENKINSVILLE.

0212 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PEAK                    34.24N 81.33W
07/13/2005                   NEWBERRY           SC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NEWBERRY COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTS TREES DOWN NEAR PEAK AND
            POMARIA.

&&

KILMER