Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Columbia, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1029 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WILL ISSUE ZONE UPDATE TO REMOVE REFERENCE TO EARLY MORNING FOG.
LATEST SATELLITE PIX SHOWS FOG/STRATUS OVER FORECAST AREA
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
AIRMASS REMAINS HUMID AND UNSTABLE TO TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED
DIURNAL CONVECTION. RUC SHOWS SHORTWAVE TRIGGERS EAST AND WEST OF
OUR AREA...BUT A FEW PULSE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 219 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WV LOOP SHOWS THAT 500 MB SHORT WAVE MEANDERING SLOWLY NORTHEAST
OVER MS/AL WAS QUITE ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY ON MONDAY. SOME OF THIS
CONVECTION MADE IT INTO THE UPSTATE OF SC WITH A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS INTO CENTRAL SC AND THE CSRA OF GA. EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME
TODAY WITH PERHAPS SOMEWHAT BETTER COVERAGE INTO CENTRAL SC/CSRA
AS WAVE MOVES A BIT CLOSER. HOWEVER PERSISTENT BERMUDA UPPER RIDGE
THAT HAS BUILT WESTWARD INTO THE SERN US COASTAL REGION WANTS TO
DEFLECT THIS WAVE MORE TO THE NORTH. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. MAX
TEMP GUIDANCE IS A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S. WILL GO CLOSE TO CONSENSUS MOS
FOR MAX/MIN.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE AREA THROUGHT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. IF THIS IS THE CASE...DIURNAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE INHIBITED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST ABOVE
NORMAL WITH THIS SCENARIO.

AVIATION...
VERY MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE STRATUS CEILINGS BELOW 1000
FEET 07-12Z THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW 3 MILES.
LOCAL VISIBILITIES WILL BE LESS THAN ONE MILE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO MVFR AFTER 15Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

24

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
353 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-
080800-
LINCOLN-MCDUFFIE-COLUMBIA-RICHMOND-BURKE-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD-
MCCORMICK-NEWBERRY-FAIRFIELD-KERSHAW-EDGEFIELD-SALUDA-LEXINGTON-
RICHLAND-LEE-AIKEN-SUMTER-BARNWELL-ORANGEBURG-CALHOUN-CLARENDON-
BAMBERG-
353 AM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH
CAROLINA AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA..

.DAY ONE...

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
PUMP WARM MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE A LITTLE CLOSER TO OUR AREA
TODAY. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
115 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

GAZ065-071745-

RICHMOND-
115 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT RICHMOND COUNTY THROUGH 145 PM
EDT...

AT 115 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT
GORDON...OR ABOUT 4 MILES SOUTH OF GROVETOWN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5
MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND
AROUND FORT GORDON AND HEPHZIBAH THROUGH 145 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THESE STORMS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN UP TO ONE INCH.

MOVE INSIDE IF STORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
133 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

SCZ030-071800-

AIKEN-
133 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT AIKEN COUNTY THROUGH 200 PM
EDT...

AT 133 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES NORTH OF BURNETTOWN...OR ABOUT 5
MILES NORTHEAST OF BELVEDERE....MOVING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. THIS
STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND
BELVEDERE...NORTH AUGUSTA...GLOVERVILLE...CLEARWATER...BURNETTOWN
AND AIKEN THROUGH 200 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
146 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

GAZ064-071815-

COLUMBIA-
146 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT COLUMBIA COUNTY THROUGH 215 PM
EDT...

AT 146 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF EVANS MOVING
SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
AREAS IN AND AROUND MARTINEZ...GROVETOWN AND EVANS THROUGH 215 PM
EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
153 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

SCZ016-071830-

CHESTERFIELD-
153 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CHESTERFIELD COUNTY THROUGH 230
PM EDT...

AT 153 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED 8 MILES WEST OF PATRICK...OR ABOUT 17
MILES WEST OF CHERAW...STATIONARY. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL
AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND PATRICK THROUGH 230 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
159 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

SCZ025-030-071830-

AIKEN-EDGEFIELD-
159 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EDGEFIELD COUNTY AND AIKEN COUNTY
THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 159 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
TRENTON...OR ABOUT 10 MILES NORTH OF BELVEDERE...MOVING WEST AT 5
MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND
AROUND TRENTON AND EDGEFIELD THROUGH 230 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES.