Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
735 PM MDT SUN JUN 19 2005

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

ALREADY TWEAKED GRIDS AND UPDATED ZONES IN ANTICIPATION OF SEVERE
WEATHER TONIGHT. NOTHING GOING ON SO FAR...WITH ONLY A FLAT CU
FIELD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SOME CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO
FIRE IN NORTHEAST WYOMING...BUT HAVE A FEELING THAT WE ARE
WAITING FOR AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TO INCREASE (AS IT SHOULD BE
DOING SHORTLY)...TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO INITIATE.
OTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST IS A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT IN UTAH. THIS ALONG WITH AFOREMENTIONED LLJ AND PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY (UP TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE) AND SHEAR (60-70KT OF
0-6KM SHEAR) MAY VERY WELL YIELD ANOTHER ACTIVE NIGHT OF WEATHER.
WITH LLJ NOSING WELL INTO THE WESTERN CWA...WOULD EXPECT PLACES
WEST OF BILLINGS TO BE UNDER THE GUN AS WELL (AT LEAST DURING THE
EVENING)...WITH THE EAST LIKELY PRONE THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

JKL

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST UPPER
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE WEAK OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY. THESE SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES ARE LOCATED AHEAD
OF AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL BE MOVING ON-SHORE IN WESTERN
CANADA EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS SAME TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE
GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS THEN SHOW A STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE
FRIDAY...WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN POSITION OF THE LONGER WAVE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. WITH EITHER
SOLUTION...FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVES EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IF CAP ISSUES DUE TO WARM MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES DO NOT MATERIALIZE. CARPENTER

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED EVENING CONVECTION...SOME SEVERE...LOOKS TO BE POSSIBLE
OVER A FAIRLY LARGE PART OF COUNTY WARNING AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING IN WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES AND PROGRESSING INTO EASTERN
ZONES LIKELY AFTER 06Z. RASCH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/088 061/094 064/092 058/088 054/082 053/084 054/082
    33/T    21/B    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
LVM 048/085 050/090 052/088 052/083 048/078 047/081 048/077
    33/T    32/T    23/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 060/091 062/096 066/095 060/092 054/085 055/086 056/086
    33/T    30/B    12/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    21/B
MLS 060/091 063/095 067/096 061/092 055/084 057/087 058/082
    32/T    30/B    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    21/B
4BQ 064/093 062/094 067/097 060/091 056/086 056/086 058/085
    32/T    30/B    02/T    22/T    12/T    21/U    11/B
BHK 061/087 061/090 065/094 060/090 054/081 052/082 053/080
    32/T    30/B    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    21/B
SHR 058/090 058/092 061/092 054/089 051/082 049/086 051/081
    33/T    20/U    02/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    21/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM MDT MONDAY
     FOR ZONES 29>39-42-56>58-66.
WY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 500 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM MDT MONDAY
     FOR ZONE 99.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1058 PM MDT SUN JUN 19 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1058 PM     HAIL             BROADUS                 45.44N 105.41W
06/19/2005  0.88 INCH        POWDER RIVER       MT   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&