Severe Thunderstorm Warning 32, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
210 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2005

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED...

GFS/NAM IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH 12Z RUN TODAY. NAM INITIALIZING
SLIGHTLY BETTER WITH UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AND WILL TREND FORECAST
TOWARD THE NAM.

TONIGHT...MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALL OF
SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHICH INCLUDES ROSEBUD...CUSTER...POWDER
RIVER...FALLON...CARTER AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES. SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEAST WYOMING WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL JET AND ADVECT VERY
MOIST SURFACE AIR INTO THESE AREAS. SURFACE FRONT ALSO MOVING
THROUGH AND WILL BRING GOOD SURFACE CONVERGENCE. UPPER DYNAMICS
ALSO INCREASING AS UPPER LOW BRINGING INCREASING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
DAYTIME HEATING HAS BROUGHT STEEP LAPSE RATES TO THESE AREAS ALONG
WITH CAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG. STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL SUPPORT ROTATING SUPER CELLS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. OVERCAST SKIES HAVE LIMITED
HEATING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS DECREASED. STILL A POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WITH STORMS. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH TROUGH MOVING IN STILL LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR
LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE
IN OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BEST SHOT OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS STRONG DIVERGENCE MOVES THROUGH. MADE LITTLE ADJUSTMENTS
TO CURRENT GRID TEMPERATURES AS THEY MATCHED UP WELL WITH
GUIDANCE. RICHMOND

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SITTING OVER THE REGION THURSDAY
KEEPING CONDITIONS COOL AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED. MODELS ARENT
SHOWING A LOT OF LIFT SO WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE. MODELS
DIVERGE A BIT FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE GFS FLATTENING THE
FLOW...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MORE OF A TROUGH OVER THE AREA. WILL
GO MORE WITH THE ECWMF SOLUTION AND KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE
AND STILL MENTION A CHANCE OF RAIN. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THEM ARENT
DRASTIC. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND SOME MONDAY WITH SOME
LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH 80 DEGREES...STILL BELOW NORMAL. IT ALSO
APPEARS BILLINGS WILL BREAK THE RECORD FOR NOT EXPERIENCING AN 80
DEGREE OR WARMER DAY THIS LATE INTO THE SPRING...THE CURRENT
RECORD IN JUNE 10. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...

MAIN THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE
FROM KBIL EAST TO KMLS...AS WELL AS IN NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND
KBYG AND KSHR. THESE STORMS COULD BE LOCALLY SEVERE WITH MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS...AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. EVEN IN
PARTS OF TWEB ROUTES NOT AFFECTED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO STRATUS CIGS.

FOISY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN     MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/063 047/061 046/069 048/070 050/071 050/072 050/078
    66/T    66/W    22/T    22/T    23/T    32/T    00/B
LVM 038/053 038/060 040/065 039/067 041/066 042/070 043/073
    66/T    66/W    43/T    33/T    33/T    32/T    00/B
HDN 047/067 046/063 045/070 049/070 050/076 050/073 050/080
    64/T    64/W    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T    00/B
MLS 051/068 050/066 048/071 047/071 052/073 052/074 052/075
    74/T    76/W    53/T    22/T    23/T    33/T    32/R
4BQ 049/069 048/066 046/072 046/071 051/074 052/073 050/074
    64/T    63/W    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T    30/B
BHK 052/066 047/063 045/066 045/069 048/070 051/072 050/076
    74/T    66/W    52/T    22/T    23/T    34/T    32/R
SHR 044/064 040/064 043/069 042/067 045/072 047/074 046/076
    64/T    63/W    22/T    22/T    23/T    33/T    00/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...TORNADO WATCH 417 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 30>33-36>38-57-58.
WY...TORNADO WATCH 417 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
      ZONES 98-99.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1239 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2005

MTZ030>033-036>038-057-058-WYZ098-099-071845-
TREASURE-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER-FALLON-POWDER RIVER-CARTER-
SOUTHERN BIG HORN-NORTHERN BIG HORN-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-
NORTHEAST BIG HORN MOUNTAINS-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS-
1239 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
WYOMING...SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY
THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. TORNADO
WATCH 417 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT.  REFER TO GTFWCNBYZ FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ028-029-034-035-039>042-056-063>068-071845-
SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-MUSSELSHELL-NORTHERN STILLWATER-YELLOWSTONE-
EASTERN CARBON-NORTHERN PARK-NORTHERN SWEET GRASS-GOLDEN VALLEY-
RED LODGE FOOTHILLS-JUDITH GAP-PARADISE VALLEY-LIVINGSTON AREA-
BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS-CRAZY MOUNTAINS-
1239 PM MDT MON JUN 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTANA AND CENTRAL MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.