Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Billings, MT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
415 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2005

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...

STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING NE THROUGH E ZONES PRODUCING SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN. MODELS WERE SIMILAR IN HANDLING SITUATION
AND MOVED SHORTWAVE OUT OF AREA AROUND 00Z. OTHER SHORTWAVES WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SW LATER TONIGHT BRINGING A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR MON...SAME PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER AREA DUE TO UPPER LOW
ANCHORED OVER PACIFIC NW. AIRMASS WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR SO EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS AND HAIL.

COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AREA MON NIGHT WITH MODELS PROGGING
STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER FAR EAST ZONES. AFTER 06Z...SE 850 MB
JET OF 30-40 KT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EAST. TIME OF DAY NOT
CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE WEATHER...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE NOCTURNAL EVENT.

UPPER LOW WILL MOVE TO MT/CANADIAN BORDER BY 00Z WED CONTINUING
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ON TUE. ARTHUR

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MODELS IN AGREEMENT AND GFS ENSEMBLES CONSISTENT IN MOVING TROF
OVER REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LATEST RUNS TEND TO TREND
TROF PASSAGE A LITTLE SLOWER SO LINGERING POPS ON WEDNESDAY SEEMS
GOOD IDEA AS MAIN TROF AXIS MAY LINGER WITH WEAK WAVES IN
NORTHWEST FLOW POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME CONVECTION WEDNESDAY.
PREVIOUS SHIFT TRENDED TEMPS DOWN WED AND CONTINUED THIS NOTION AS
COOLEST AIR ALOFT AND CLOUD COVER AFFECT AREA PRIMARILY WED.

REST OF PACKAGE IN GOOD SHAPE WITH MODELS GENERALLY DRYING US OUT
AFTER MIDWEEK FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS. LAST SHIFT INTRODUCED SOME
LITE POPS TO MOUNTAINS FOR ZONAL FLOW CLIMATOLOGY WHICH IS HARD TO
ARGUE WITH. CONFIDENCE IN SOLUTION FOR NEXT WEEKEND DROPS AS
MODELS HINT AT A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPMENT...SO LEFT
ALONE FOR NOW. TESAR

&&

.AVIATION...

AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM
MLS TO BIL TO SHR THIS AFTERNOON DECREASING AFTER 01Z. BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE FOUND IN THIS AREA DUE TO LOW VSBY IN RAIN AND
LOW CEILINGS. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE IN THE MLS VCNTY AS WELL.
OVER THE ROUTES WEST OF BIL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH MAINLY MVFR WITH STORMS...THOUGH
OCNL BRIEF HEAVY RAIN COULD LWR VSBY TO IFR IN ISOLD LOCATIONS.
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE OVER THE AREA AFT 03Z.
TESAR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055/084 058/078 053/074 052/082 054/084 058/082 055/079
    23/T    63/T    42/T    00/U    00/U    02/T    00/B
LVM 048/077 049/073 045/075 049/079 051/082 051/080 050/077
    47/T    63/T    42/T    22/T    22/T    22/T    22/T
HDN 056/084 057/080 055/073 053/084 055/086 057/083 055/083
    +3/T    23/T    32/T    00/U    00/U    02/T    00/B
MLS 058/083 062/080 054/073 055/083 057/086 056/086 056/084
    +3/T    33/T    32/T    00/B    00/U    02/T    02/T
4BQ 056/086 061/080 053/073 053/083 055/085 057/085 055/084
    +3/T    23/T    32/T    00/B    00/U    02/T    00/B
BHK 057/080 062/076 053/071 055/078 057/080 054/080 054/079
    83/T    33/T    32/T    00/B    00/B    02/T    02/T
SHR 052/084 053/079 050/073 049/079 052/083 054/082 052/081
    22/T    13/T    32/T    00/U    00/U    02/T    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 531 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
      EVENING FOR ZONES 32-33-36-37.
WY...NONE.

&&

WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
229 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2005

MTZ032-033-036-037-272030-
CUSTER-FALLON-POWDER RIVER-CARTER-
229 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. PLEASE SEE GTFWCNBYZ AND GTFZFPBYZ FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MTZ028>031-034-035-038>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-272030-
SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-MUSSELSHELL-TREASURE-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-
NORTHERN STILLWATER-YELLOWSTONE-SOUTHERN BIG HORN-EASTERN CARBON-
NORTHERN PARK-NORTHERN SWEET GRASS-GOLDEN VALLEY-
RED LODGE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN BIG HORN-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-JUDITH GAP-
PARADISE VALLEY-LIVINGSTON AREA-BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-
ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS-CRAZY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST BIG HORN MOUNTAINS-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS-
229 PM MDT SUN JUN 26 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
WYOMING...SOUTHEAST MONTANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA AND CENTRAL
MONTANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
THIS EVENING AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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