Special Marine Warning 40, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
244 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2005

.SYNOPSIS...

ANOTHER SPELL OF SULTRY HOT HUMID WX UNDERWAY AND WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK. SOME CONVECTION POSSIBLE FOR AWHILE THIS EVENING
WITH BEST CHANCES EAST OF LK ONTARIO AND POSSIBLY FINGER
LAKES...OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY WITH JUST ISOLD ACTIVITY POSSIBLE
TUES-WED. NEXT COLD FRONT DUE EARLY-MIDDAY FRI WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...THEN CLEARING OUT AND LESS HUMID LATER FRI
LEADING TO ANOTHER FINE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

WESTERN AREAS REALLY COOKING AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND DEW PTS
POOLING SIGNIFICANTLY...INTO L70S BUF-YHM AND ALSO ART AND ST LAWR
VALLEY. EARLIER ACTIVITY UP BY GEORGIAN BAY HAS FIZZLED AS IT MOVED
SE...AS FAIRLY STRONG CAP EXISTS ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND FAR WESTERN
NY. BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY DEVELOPMENT NEXT FEW HOURS
ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES ACROSS NIAG PENINSULA AND ESP GENESEE
VALLEY. THE CAP IS WEAKER FURTHER EAST...AND CONVECTION FIRING NORTH
OF KINGSTON MAY STRENGTHEN AS IT DROPS SE ACROSS JEFF/LEWIS NEXT FEW
HOURS. SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL HERE. WILL CARRY CHC POPS INTO THE
EVENING FROM ABOUT GEN VALLEY EAST...AND KEEP JUST SLGT CHC FURTHER
WEST.

FORECAST PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED WITH A PERIOD OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY
TUES-THURS. STRONG RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO OUR WEST...WITH PRETTY GOOD
NW FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHEASTERN U.S. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL RIPPLE
ALONG THIS FLOW WITH ENHANCED CHANCES OF TSTORMS...BUT TIMING WILL
BE DIFFICULT. OUR AREA IS ON THE EDGE...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER ST
LAWR VALLEY AND ERN NY TUES...WHILE CAP TENDS TO STRENGTHEN OVER
WEST. WILL CARRY 20 POPS WEST AND 30 NORTHEAST ON TUES...DROPPING TO
10-15 POPS BY THURS AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST. MET TEMPS LOOK
BETTER...WITH 850S OF 17-19C SUPPORTING NR 90 AWAY FROM LAKE
INFLUENCES. THURS SHOULD BE WARMEST DAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING NEXT COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION FRI MORNING FROM ABOUT 10-16Z. THIS IS NOT PRIME TIME FOR
CONVECTION...BUT WE SHOULD GET A SHOT OF SHOWERS AHEAD AND WITH THE
FRONT. WILL INCREASE POPS TO 40 LATE THURS NT AND FRI
MORNING...DRYING IT OUT FROM WEST TO EAST IN AFTERNOON. COMFORTABLE
WX TO FOLLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

PLEASANT WX WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND...FOLLOWED HPC GRAPHICS
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS (80/60) AND NIL POPS. WILL BRING CHC POPS IN
MONDAY AHEAD ON NEXT FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ISOLD TSTMS PSBL...BEST
CHC AT KROC AND ESPECIALLY KART THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHERLY TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST AGAIN TUES. NO ADVISORIES.

&&

.CLIMO...

BUFS JULY AVG TEMP OF 75.0 MAKES IT THE WARMEST JULY IN 50 YRS AND
3RD WARMEST EVER. THIS ALSO COMBINES WITH A VERY WARM JUNE TO MAKE
IT THE WARMEST JUNE-JULY COMBO EVER IN BUFFALO. ROC WAS NOT QUITE AS
WARM BUT ENOUGH FOR THEIR WARMEST JUNE-JULY COMBO IN 32 YRS. MORE IN
CLMS ISSUED EARLIER ON ON CLIMATE SECTION OF OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...NONE.
.MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/CLIMO...MCLAUGHLIN
LONG TERM/AVIATION/MARINE...NIZIOL

NWS ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
536 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2005

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-
020935-
ALLEGANY-CATTARAUGUS-CHAUTAUQUA-GENESEE-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
MONROE-NIAGARA-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-ONTARIO-ORLEANS-OSWEGO-
SOUTHERN ERIE-WAYNE-WYOMING-
536 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...AND
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BUFFALO
CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT THE FOLLOWING (LOWER CASE):
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

TMA