Alert archive / New York / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2005
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 14, 2005, 5:02 PM EDT for Erie County, New York. It was in force for 30 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 14, 2005, 5:02 PM EDT (21:02 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 14, 2005, 5:32 PM EDT
- In force
- 30 min
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Erie County, NY
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 39 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:04 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 14, 5:17 PM EDT | TSTM WND DMG | Evans Center, NY | POWER LINES DOWN |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
Did it verify
Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 15 minutes after it went out.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 39 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 814 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -108 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1263 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 14 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 13 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 22 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS51 KBUF 142103 SVRBUF NYC029-142130- /O.NEW.KBUF.SV.W.0024.050714T2102Z-050714T2130Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 502 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHWEST ERIE COUNTY IN WESTERN NEW YORK * UNTIL 530 PM EDT * AT 500 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ANGOLA...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... LAKE ERIE BEACH BY 525 PM EDT... FARNHAM BY 530 PM EDT... THIS STORM WILL ALSO PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH PONDING ON ROADWAYS EXPECTED. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN BUFFALO. LAT...LON 4273 7897 4259 7912 4251 7893 4265 7884 $$ RSH
2 follow-up statements
000 WWUS51 KBUF 142123 SVSBUF SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 522 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005 NYC029-142130- /O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0024.000000T0000Z-050714T2130Z/ ERIE NY- 522 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 530 PM EDT FOR SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY... AT 515 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR NORTH COLLINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. ANOTHER STORM NEAR WEST SENECA COULD ALSO PRODUCE SIMILAR WIND GUSTS. BOTH STORMS ARE NEARLY STATIONARY. ALONG WITH THE DAMAGING WIND GUST POTENTIAL...THE STORMS ARE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH IN LESS THAN ONE HOUR IS POSSIBLE. LAT...LON 4288 7875 4259 7912 4251 7893 4282 7852 $$ RSH
000 WWUS51 KBUF 142132 SVSBUF SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 531 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005 NYC029-142141- /O.EXP.KBUF.SV.W.0024.000000T0000Z-050714T2130Z/ ERIE NY- 531 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005 ...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY EXPIRED AT 530 PM EDT... AT 531 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED THAT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WHILE LEFTOVER DOWNPOURS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO AREAS NEAR HAMBURG AND NORTH COLLINS...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED. LAT...LON 4288 7875 4259 7912 4251 7893 4282 7852 $$ RSH
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Buffalo, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 14, 2:40 PM EDT, 2 hours 22 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 14, 2:40 PM EDT, 2 hours 22 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 240 PM THU JUL 14 2005 .SYNOPSIS... ...AND THE HEAT GOES ON...AND ON AND ON. ONCE AGAIN WESTERN NEW YORK EXPERIENCED ANOMALOUS HEAT WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 90 DEGREE READINGS BAKING THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. BUFFALO SET YET ANOTHER RECORD FOR THE DAY...REACHING AT LEAST 92 WHICH BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 91 (1968). THAT MAKES 8 90+ DAYS OF HEAT IN BUFFALO...MORE THAN DOUBLING THE NORMAL NUMBER FOR ONE SUMMER. ROC NOW STANDS AT 7 DAYS. WHILE THAT IS NOT ABOVE THEIR NORMAL TOTAL FOR ONE SUMMER (10 DAYS) IT IS WELL ABOVE THE CURVE FOR MID JULY. WHILE TEMPERATURES THE NEXT WEEK OR SO ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS EXTREME...READINGS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY. THE HEAT HAS HELPED TO DRY OUT SFC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION... WITH MANY AREAS 30 TO 50 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL IN SFC MOSTURE VALUES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR BENEFICIAL RAINS WILL BE INCREASING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL BE AS A RESULT OF INCREASED FOCUSING MECHANISMS (SFC BOUNDARIES) AND THE PASSING OF THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)... A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS EVENING AS CAPES WILL AVERAGE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. COMBINE THIS INSTABILITY WITH THE PRESENCE OF SEVERAL BOUNDARIES...AND THE RESULT WILL BE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN BOUNDARY TO WATCH WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE U.S. NEARSHORES OF LAKE ONTARIO TO THE CANDADIAN NEARSHORES OF LK ERIE. THIS BOUNDARY ALREADY HELPED TO FIRE UP STRONG STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY EARLIER TODAY. THE OTHER BOUNDARIES WILL BE MESOSCALE IN NATURE WITH A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY SRETCHING WEST TO EAST FROM YSN TO IAG TO ABOUT ROC. ANOTHER LK BREEZE BOUNDARY...ALBEIT WEAKER...LIES ALONG THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY FROM ERI TO BUF. VIS IMAGERY IS ALREADY SHOWING MODERATE CU ALONG THESE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WITH A CELL OR TWO POPPING UP NEAR BUF. MORE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STORMS POP AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BECOME INVOLVED. THE KBUF VAD SHOWS WEAK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS BLO 10K...SO WITH PWS AROUND 1.6-1.75...SLOW MOVING DOWNPOURS WILL BE COMMON WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS. THIS MAY BE OUR BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH RAIN LOADED DOWNDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KTS. SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE LARGE CAPE VALUES. AS THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT... OUR ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE A BIT AND A MID LEVEL CAP WILL THEN DEVELOP FOR FRIDAY. THIS CAP WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...SO WILL KEEP STORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE THE CAP WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AND THE PRESENCE OF THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY WILL BE JUST TO THE SOUTH. IT WILL CERTAINLY BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY ON FRIDAY...AS H8 TEMPS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS FOR ALL BUT THE NORTH COUNTRY. DRY SFC CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN PROMOTING THE HEAT AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO ON FRIDAY...SO EXPECT MANY AREAS TO ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. SLIGHTLY MORE TOLERABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND WETSREN SOUTHERN TIER. THE FORECAST WILL BECOME MORE DIFFICULT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON BRINGING THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE NAM IS DRIER AND APPARENTLY SLOWER WITH THIS PROCESS...WHILE THE NORMALLY MORE RELIABLE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE. WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODELS (THEREBY MOVING AWAY FROM THE NAM BASED CONTINUITY) AND GO WITH CHC POPS FOR ALL AREAS BUT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO. THIS FORECAST IS ALSO CONSENSUS OF THE SURROUNDING OFFICES. FOR SATURDAY...WILL GO WITH HIGH CHC POPS REGIONWIDE AS THE REMNANTS OF DENNIS SHOULD BE MAKING THEIR WAY NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. THE REMNANTS COMBINED WITH AN ALREADY HUMID AIRMASS WILL PROBABLY MAKE SATURDAY ONE OF THE MOST OPPRESSIVE DAYS THAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE AS TDS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS COULD ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR LOCALIZED TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION. THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/REMNANTS OF DENNIS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. CHC POPS WILL BE USED FOR BOTH PERIODS. && .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... THE MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES DEPICT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST OF A CONTINUED STORNG RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE CORRESPONDING H8 TEMPS AVERAGING IN THE UPPER TEENS. THIS WILL PRODUCE MORE 90 DEGREE MAX TEMPS IN THE NORMALLY WARMER AREAS WITH MID-UP 80S ELSEWHERE. BOUNDARIES WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN FOR MONDAY SO SLIGHT CHC POPS WILL REFLECT THIS. THE CHANCE FOR ANY STORMS WILL THEN INCREASE ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AT THIS POINT...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT HOLDING OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. CHC POPS FOR STORMS WILL BE USED FOR THIS SCENARIO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH CONSENSUS H8 TEMPS OF +16C EXPECTED. && .AVIATION... GENERALLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDS IN WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. TONIGHT VSBYS WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN FOG AND HAZE AFTER 06Z WITH LOCAL IFR CONDS AFT 09Z. FOG AND HAZE LIFTING AFTER 13Z. && .BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...NONE. .MARINE...NONE. SHORT/LONG TERM...RSH AVIATION...TJP
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 14, 2:14 AM EDT, 14 hours 48 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 214 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005 LOZ044-045-065-NYZ006>008-150800- JEFFERSON-LEWIS-OSWEGO- 214 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. .DAY ONE... THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER SAYS THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER JEFFERSON LEWIS AND OSWEGO COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS THAT COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND PONDING ON AREA ROADS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED. LOZ042-043-062>064-NYZ001>005-010>014-019>021-085-150800- ALLEGANY-CATTARAUGUS-CHAUTAUQUA-GENESEE-LIVINGSTON-MONROE-NIAGARA- NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-ONTARIO-ORLEANS-SOUTHERN ERIE-WAYNE- WYOMING- 214 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. BECAUSE OF THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR, ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS THAT COULD RESULT IN POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND PONDING ON AREA ROADS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. APB
The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 13, 8:47 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | BUF | Allegany | 3 hr |
| Jul 14, 1:31 AM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 59 min | |
| Jul 14, 2:43 AM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 62 min | |
| Jul 14, 8:55 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Jefferson | 35 min |
| Jul 14, 8:57 AM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Lewis | 64 min |
| Jul 14, 3:26 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Niagara | 49 min |
| Jul 14, 3:44 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 46 min | |
| Jul 14, 4:03 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Monroe | 42 min |
| Jul 14, 4:18 PM EDT | Special Marine Warning | BUF | 57 min | |
| Jul 14, 5:27 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Genesee | 52 min |
| Jul 14, 5:46 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | BUF | Lewis | 3 hr |
| Jul 14, 6:15 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Erie | 37 min |
| Jul 14, 7:25 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | BUF | Monroe | 59 min |
| Jul 14, 7:35 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | BUF | Monroe | 3 hr |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in New York, 2005Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2005
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.