Wind Advisory 5, NWS Burlington, VT

000 
WWUS71 KBTV 161744
NPWBTV

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1244 PM EST WED NOV 16 2005

...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON 
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...

.STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY
THIS EVENING. A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A BAND OF
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY
THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED BY TERRAIN
INFLUENCES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN AND
ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS...AND IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. ACROSS
THESE LOCATIONS...WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED
THIS MORNING...AND CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BELOW 35 MPH BY MID
TO LATE EVENING.

VTZ016>019-170000-
/O.CON.KBTV.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-051117T0000Z/
EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
EASTERN RUTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...
BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON
1244 PM EST WED NOV 16 2005

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON CONTINUES THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. IT REMAINS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING.

SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL
CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY RESULT
IN LOCALIZED DAMAGE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER
LINES. WINDS WILL THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

$$

NYZ029>031-034-170000-
/O.CON.KBTV.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-051117T0000Z/
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...
TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...LAKE PLACID
1244 PM EST WED NOV 16 2005

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON CONTINUES THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. IT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
7 PM EST THIS EVENING.

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY
RESULT IN LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DOWNED
TREES AND POWER LINES. WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

$$

NYZ026-027-087-170000-
/O.CON.KBTV.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-051117T0000Z/
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...OGDENSBURG...
POTSDAM...GOUVERNEUR
1244 PM EST WED NOV 16 2005

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON CONTINUES THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. IT REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING.

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED DAMAGE WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF DOWNED TREES AND POWER
LINES. WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. 

$$

000 
WWUS71 KBTV 161945
NPWBTV

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
245 PM EST WED NOV 16 2005

NYZ026-027-029>031-034-087-VTZ016>019-162045-
/O.CAN.KBTV.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-051117T0000Z/
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-WESTERN ESSEX-
SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-
EASTERN ADDISON-EASTERN RUTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...STAR LAKE...
SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...LAKE PLACID...
OGDENSBURG...POTSDAM...GOUVERNEUR...ENOSBURG FALLS...RICHFORD...
UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...KILLINGTON
245 PM EST WED NOV 16 2005

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...THE NORTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.
WHILE IT WILL REMAIN WINDY INTO THE EVENING HOURS...THE THREAT OF
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH OR WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH HAS DIMINISHED.
EXPECT WINDS TO BE MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS OF 15 TO 30
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
858 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...
CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK SO NO UPDATE AT THIS TIME. WARM FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF TO SPOTTY SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS LIFT FROM STRONG DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
FRONTOGENESIS LIFT NORTH AFTER 06Z. TEMPERATURES RISING OVERNIGHT
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT AND WINDS BY MORNING WEST OF
THE GREEN MOUNTAINS. KALY SOUNDING GRADIENT WINDS COULD BE A
PROBLEM TOMORROW NEAR ADVISORY STRENGTH AS MENTIONED EARLIER.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z-00Z)...FCST CONCERNS FOR TAF SITES ARE VARIABLE LIFR/MVFR
CIGS/VIS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONTAL PRECIP THRU 05-06Z...FOLLOWED
OVERNIGHT LOW CIGS/VIS AND INCREASE THREAT FOR LLVL WS. CRNT
RADAR TREND SHOWS LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH WARM FRNT LIFTING ACRS OUR FA. AFT 06Z BEST OMEGA/LIFT MOVES
NORTH OF TAF SITES...BUT SOUNDINGS AND MOISTURE PROFILES SHOW PLENTY
OF LLVL RH...THEREFORE WL MENTION -RA/DZ WITH CIGS AOB 1KFT. IN
ADDITION...SOUNDING PROFILES AND WIND FIELDS INCREASE TO 50KT AT
2KFT. WL MENTION WS020/16050KT. SFC FRNT AND ASSOCIATED
LIFT/MOISTURE APPROACH MSS TAF BY 17Z WED. WSETA SHOWS NARROW COLD
FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION (+SHRA) CROSSING THROUGH ALL THE TAF
SITES REACHING KMPV BY 22Z. COULD BE SOME VCTS BUT WILL LET LATER
SHIFTS PUT IN IF IT BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
TOMORROW BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FLOOD.

RAINFALL OF 0.50 TO 1.00 WITH A FEW REPORTS OF MORE THAN AN INCH
SO FAR. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION LATER TONIGHT
AFTER ANOTHER 0.25 IN THE FAR N. LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
THUNDER TOMORROW COULD ADD ANOTHER HALF INCH. THE SMALLER
TRIBUTARIES OF THE MAIN RIVERS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF VERMONT
ARE ALREADY SHOWING THE INITIAL SHARP RISES OF UP A HALF A FOOT
TO A FOOT INCLUDING...DOG RIVER...PIKE RIVER...NEW HAVEN
RIVER...AYERS BROOK...EAST BRANCH OF THE PASSUMPSIC.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 410 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NORTH THRU
CNTRL GRTLKS TONITE AND REACHES JAMES BAY WED PM. WRMFRNT ASSOCD
WITH THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTH THRU FA OVERNIGHT/EARLY WED. LATEST
RADAR SHOWING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACRS FA ATTM...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING. AS BEST OVERRUNNING LIFTS NORTH OF FA LATER
TONITE...SO WILL THE RAIN. POPS TAPER TO CHC AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACRS FA. EXPECTED TOTAL RAINFALL THRU TONITE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND AN INCH ACRS MUCH OF RGN.

WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A GOOD PART OF WEDNESDAY. CDFNT
WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACRS FA BTWN 18Z-00Z. SEVERAL WX CONCERNS
FOR WED INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR STG WINDS...HVY RAIN...AND TSRA.
STRONGEST WINDS DURING WED EXPECTED TO BE ACRS ADRNDKS AND WRN
SLOPES OF GREEN MTNS WITH GUSTS 45 MPH PSBLE. GUSTS MAY ALSO APRCH
40 MPH IN CHMPLN/ST LWR VLYS...ALTHO PRESENCE OF INVERSION AT LEAST
DURINGTHE MORNING MAY BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR. MUCH OF WED AM WILL
BE DRY...BUT MORE RAIN EXPECTED DURING PM WITH CDFNT. ANOTHER INCH
OF RAIN PSBL WED PM/EVEN. THIS PCPN CONVECTIVE IN NATURE...SO
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIR AMTS. RESULT WILL BE MDT RISES IN
RIVERS...BUT ATTM THEY ARE EXPECTED TO RMN BELOW FLOOD STAGE.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF FROPA WEDNESDAY...SO HAVE CONTD
WITH CHC TSRA. RISK OF ANY SVR EXPECTED TO RMN SOUTH OF FA HOWEVER.

AS FRONT PUSHES EAST OF FA WED NITE...WDSPRD SHWRS AND WDLY SCT TSRA
ASSOCD WITH FRONT WILL COME TO AN END. THERE WILL BE A CONTD CHC OF
SHWRS OVRNGHT AS WE RMN UNDER UPPER TROF. CAA WILL RESULT IN RAIN
SHWRS MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW SHWRS...ESP OVER HIR TRRN.
MORE RAIN/SNOW SHWRS PSBL THURS AS CAA CONTINUES AND SHRTWV TROF
MOVES THRU RGN. LLVL FLOW FAVORABLE FOR SOME LES IN ADRNDKS THURS.
FLOW EVENTUALLY TURNS MORE NW AND FAVORABLE FOR UPSLOPE SNOW SHWR
ACTIVITY LATER THURS/THURS NITE. HIGH PRESSURE BLDS IN FRIDAY
RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
MID/UPPER LVL TROF DEVELOPING ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF TROF ACRS REGION...BUT HAVING
DIFFICULTIES WITH INDIVIDUAL S/WS AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK. FCSTER CONFIDENCE IS AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT BELOW AVERAGE FOR NEXT WEEK. WL KEEP SATURDAY DRY
BASED SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE ACRS OUR
FA. WL MENTION CHC POPS WESTERN FA LATE SATURDAY NITE INTO SUNDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH LLVL WAA AND WEAK 5H VORT MOVING ALONG SFC FRNT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN AMOUNT OF LIFT AND OVERALL MOISTURE PROFILE...QPF WL
BE LIGHT. MID/UPPER LVL TROF CONTS MONDAY INTO TUES WITH SOME
QUESTION ABOUT EVOLUTION OF SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. ECMWF IS CLOSEST TO THE COAST AND STRONGEST WITH
DEVELOPMENT...WHILE GFS HAS SFC DEVELOPMENT WELL OFF THE SE COAST
LINE. WL CONT TO MENTION CHC POPS ATTM AND MONITOR LATER RUNS FOR
POTENTIAL COASTAL DEVELOPMENT. PROGGED 85H TEMPS SUPPORT TEMPS 3 TO
5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THRU NEXT TUES.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SISSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
523 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-161030-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-
CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-
WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
EASTERN RUTLAND-
523 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
YORK...CENTRAL VERMONT...NORTHEAST VERMONT...NORTHWEST VERMONT
AND SOUTHERN VERMONT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA AS SLEET...SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CHANGE TO RAIN
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. A SLUSHY...ICY
ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN AN INCH TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE.

THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MOVE
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND LIKELY NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THIS STORM HAS A VERY STRONG WIND JUST A FEW THOUSAND FEET IN ELEVATION
THAT MAY CAUSE SOME POWER OUTAGES ON EXPOSED RIDELINES LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THIS COULD POSE
SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW WEEKS...THAT BEING
VERY WINDY AND MILDER AHEAD THE COLD FRONT WITH WINDY...COLDER AIR
AND RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS AFTER THE COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ANY REPORTS OF SNOWFALL...TYPE OF PRECIPITATION AND CHANGEOVER OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE ENCOURAGED TO BE REPORTED TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BURLINGTON.