Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Burlington, VT

000 
WGUS71 KBTV 271937
FFSBTV

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
337 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2005

VTC027-272130-
WINDSOR VT-
337 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 530 PM EDT FOR WINDSOR
COUNTY...

AT 335 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A 
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM NEAR CHESTER...OR ABOUT 6 MILES WEST OF 
SPRINGFIELD...MOVING EAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LUDLOW BY 335 PM EDT.
  PERKINSVILLE BY 410 PM EDT.
  SPRINGFIELD BY 435 PM EDT.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF 
RAINFALL IN LESS THAN AN HOUR AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

ELSEWHERE IN WINDSOR COUNTY RAINFALL HAS DECREASED IN INTENSITY.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

LAT...LON 4388 7264 4394 7280 4385 7286 4383 7278
      4371 7281 4369 7271 4351 7278 4346 7273
      4327 7281 4322 7269 4324 7245 4378 7229

$$

SISSON

000 
WGUS71 KBTV 272058
FFSBTV

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
457 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2005

VTC027-272130-
WINDSOR VT-
457 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 530 PM EDT FOR WINDSOR
COUNTY...

AT 450 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS 
STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LUDLOW...OR ABOUT 11 MILES 
SOUTHEAST OF DANBY. THE THUNDERSTORM WITH EXCESSIVE RAIN WAS NEARLY 
STATIONARY.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WOODSTOCK...WEST WINDSOR...WEST HARTFORD...TYSON...SOUTH WOODSTOCK...
READING...QUECHEE...POMFRET...CHESTER...CAVENDISH...BRIDGEWATER AND
BARNARD.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW
LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

LAT...LON 4382 7260 4331 7282 4323 7261 4373 7231

$$

TABER

000 
WGUS71 KBTV 272126
FFSBTV

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
525 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2005

VTC027-272135-
WINDSOR VT-
525 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2005

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WINDSOR COUNTY EXPIRES AT 530 PM 
EDT...

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN HAVE MOVED OUT OF WINDSOR COUNTY AND 
THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING HAS ENDED.

LAT...LON 4388 7264 4394 7280 4385 7286 4383 7278
      4371 7281 4369 7271 4351 7278 4346 7273
      4327 7281 4322 7269 4324 7245 4378 7229

$$

SISSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
935 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
SOME MINOR CHANGES TO CRNT FCST BASED ON 06Z WS-ETA AND CRNT
POSITION OF SFC FRNT. WL INCREASE POPS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A ESSEX
COUNTY VT TO ESSEX COUNTY NY LINE TODAY AND WL MENTION SOME STORMS
WL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

COUPLE FACTORS SUPPORTING AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION ACRS OUR
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FCST AREA. FIRST IS WATER VAPOR SHOWS WEAK 5H VORT
NOW ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA MOVING INTO NORTHERN NY THIS AFTN.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC A WARM FRNT/OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS LOCATED
FROM NEAR VSF TO RUT TO PLB ATTM WL SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE NORTH. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH TRRN WL BE TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTN.
CRNT FEELING CONVECTION WL FIRE AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED ACRS
ESSEX COUNTY NY BY 18Z TODAY AND STORMS WL SLOWLY MOVE NE AT 5 TO 10
KTS PER 0-6KM WINDS. IN ADDITION...FEEL MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WL DEVELOP OVER THE NE KINGDOM AND HIR TRRN OF
RUTLAND/WINDSOR COUNTY BY 20Z...THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS TO
HIGH CHC IN THESE AREAS.

WITH SFC TEMPS WELL INTO THE 90S AND DWPTS NEAR 70...CAPE VALUES WL
BE BTWN 2500-3500 J/KG THIS AFTN ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ALSO...NOTED
WAS A 7H THETA E AXIS...STEEP 1000-850 AND 850-500MB LAPSE
RATES...LIS AROUND -5...TTS NEAR 50...AND LITTLE CIN BY 21Z. THE
MISSING ELEMENT IS WINDS ALOFT AND LOW/MID LLVL SHEAR. HOWEVER...VAD
THIS MORNING SHOWS 4-5KFT WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KNTS...WHICH MODELS ARE
UNDER-ESTIMATING. GIVEN...SOUNDING PROFILE AND DERIVED WINDEX
VALUES APPROACHING 60 KNTS...FEEL ISOLATED TO SCT WET-MICROBURST WL
BE POSSIBLE WITH. THIS ALSO IS SUPPORTED BY SOUNDINGS SHOWING US
BEING ABLE TO MIX FROM 650MB...THEREFORE WL MENTION GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM WINDS IN ZNS. ALSO...GIVEN SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS AND
PWS APPROACHING 2.0 AND WARM CLOUD DEPTH OVER 4KM...HEAVY RAIN WL
BE POSSIBLE AND WL MENTION IN ZNS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG TO SVR THUNDERSTORM WINDS WL BE ESSEX COUNTY NY...NE
KINGDOM...AND HIR TRRN OF SOUTHERN VT.

GIVEN CONFIDENCE LVL WL UPDATE HWO TO MENTION THESE FACTORS AND WL
CONT TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN.
OTHERWISE...REST OF FCST LOOKS FINE WITH HIGHS IN THE U80S TO L90S
AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 215 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2005)

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
ANOTHER HAZY...HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON ON TAP FOR THE FA AS
UNSEASONABLY WARM JUNE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ONLY SUBTLE
CHANGES TO OVERALL SYNOPTIC REGIME TODAY...AS SPRAWLING SUBTROPICAL
HIGH DOMINATES REGIONAL WX CONDS. 850 HPA TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER
TODAY (18C) THAN YESTERDAY...SO EXPECT MORE AREAS TO REACH OR
ECLIPSE THE 90 DEGREE MARK TODAY UNDER FULL TO PARTIAL SUNSHINE. AS
WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...ISOLD TO WDLY SCT AIRMASS-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 18Z. LITTLE TO NO
DYNAMICS/FORCING WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT EXACT LOCN OF
ANY CONVECTION...BUT INSTABILITY PROGS COMBINED WITH ORIENTATION OF
OLD WEAKNESS AT MID LVLS WOULD SEEM TO ARGUE FOR A FEW STORMS
INITIATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DACKS/GREEN MTNS IN
MORE OF A SW TO NE FASHION...AND SLOWLY EDGING EASTWARD TOWARDS
EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY HOWEVER...WITH MAIN EMPHASIS ON
HAZY/HOT CONDS.

AFTER A SLT CHC OF AN EVENING SHOWER/STORM...MAINLY PTLY CLOUDY AND
DRY OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH MILD/WARM CONDS. PATCHY BR ONCE AGAIN
POSSIBLE UNDER LIGHT WIND REGIME. BY TUESDAY/TUESDAY EVENING WILL
OPT TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF QPF/POPS AS SLUG OF DEEPER
TROPICAL MARITIME MOISTURE AND ASSOC VORTICITY ADVECT NORTHWARD
INTO REGION. GFS APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON THIS FEATURE...NOW
LOCATED ALONG DELMARVA SHORE. INCREASED LIFT COMBINED WITH DEEP AND
NEARLY SATURATED MOISTURE COLUMN ARGUE FOR STORMS TO HAVE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...AND TO BE SLOW MOVERS. THIS
POTENTIAL HAS BEEN EVIDENT OVER PAST FEW DAYS...AND LOOKS EVEN
BETTER THIS MORNING...AS MODIFIED GFS SOUNDINGS FOR 18Z TUE
INDICATE WARM COAL DEPTHS OF 4.2 KM AND A MEAN 0-6KM CELL MOTION OF
8KT. THUS FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

EVENING SHRAS/TSRAS WILL THEN WANE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND PATCHY FOG FORMATION. BY WEDNESDAY ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT WILL UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS ACROSS AREA AS MAIN DYNAMICS PASS
FAR NORTH OF AREA. NONETHELESS...WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS
REMAINS IN PLACE...AND WITH BNDRY IN VCNTY...CANNOT ARGUE FOR SCT
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE FA.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED PORTIONS OF FCST AT THIS TIME. SCT AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN THE RULE THURSDAY...THEN A
BETTER CHC OF ACTIVITY DURING FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING AS A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AND BONAFIDE COOL FRONT STILL APPEAR ON TRACK TO CROSS AREA.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SEASONABLY WARM CONDS EXPECTED...BUT WITH MORE
TOLERABLE HUMIDITY LVLS.

AVIATION...
EXPECTING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH SCT HIGH CLOUDS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOME IFR
CONDITIONS 08Z THROUGH 12Z AT SLK AND MPV AS VISIBILITIES TO DROP TO
2SM IN BR AT TIMES. ALSO EXPECTING 3SM IN BR AT MSS AS WELL. FEW-SCT
CU WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z...THEN DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TOMORROW WILL BE
ISOLATED...SO DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...TABER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
931 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2005

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-280752-
CALEDONIA VT-EASTERN ADDISON VT-EASTERN CHITTENDEN VT-
EASTERN CLINTON NY-EASTERN ESSEX NY-EASTERN FRANKLIN VT-
EASTERN RUTLAND VT-ESSEX VT-GRAND ISLE VT-LAMOILLE VT-
NORTHERN FRANKLIN NY-NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-ORANGE VT-ORLEANS VT-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN NY-
SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE NY-WASHINGTON VT-WESTERN ADDISON VT-
WESTERN CHITTENDEN VT-WESTERN CLINTON NY-WESTERN ESSEX NY-
WESTERN FRANKLIN VT-WESTERN RUTLAND VT-WINDSOR VT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARRE...BETHEL...BRANDON...BURLINGTON...
CANAAN...CANTON...DANBY...ESSEX JUNCTION...FAIR HAVEN...MALONE...
MASSENA...MIDDLEBURY...MONTPELIER...MORRISVILLE...NEWCOMB...
NEWPORT...OGDENSBURG...PLATTSBURGH...POTSDAM...RANDOLPH...RUTLAND...
SARANAC LAKE...SOUTH BURLINGTON...SPRINGFIELD...ST. ALBANS...
ST. JOHNSBURY...SWANTON...VERGENNES...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...
WILLSBORO AND WINOOSKI
931 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VERMONT AS
WELL AS NORTHERN NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR STRONG
STORMS WILL BE AFTER 200 PM ON A LINE FROM ESSEX COUNTY NEW YORK...TO
ESSEX COUNTY VERMONT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. THE SLOW MOVING NATURE
OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO ALL HAZARDS OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA
OUTLETS FOR UPDATES.

&&
FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON (LOWER CASE)

LAHIFF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
137 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2005

VTZ012-019-271830-

WINDSOR-EASTERN RUTLAND-

AT 129 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM OVER MT. HOLLY. THE STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR TYSON BY 220 PM...NEAR LUDLOW AND 6
MILES NORTHWEST OF CAVENDISH BY 230 PM.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF
40 MPH OR HIGHER. IN ADDITION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THIS RAINFALL MAY CAUSE
MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.