Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Brownsville, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
810 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

.DISCUSSION...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
MIDNIGHT ACROSS ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY REMAINS CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AND THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER ZAPATA AND KENEDY COUNTIES WILL
LIKELY GENERATE SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT WILL SPARK
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOWER VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHEAST MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE INTO
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT CROSS INTO THE CWA
AND MERGE WITH THUNDERSTORMS BUILDING SOUTHWARD HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
STRONG WINDS.
&&

.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE LAGUNA MADRE
AND NEAR SHORE WATERS DUE TO THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER BAFFIN
BAY. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD SOUTH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL MAKE THE BAY WATER CONDITIONS VERY ROUGH
AND DANGEROUS.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE FOR MEMORIAL DAY.
&&

.AVIATION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
STORMS TO THE NORTH. THESE STORMS WOULD REDUCE CIGS AND HAVE GUSTY
WINDS. WINDS TOMORROW ARE EXPECTED TO BE CALMER FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...TXZ248>257.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...53
SHORT TERM...58
MESO...ABBOTT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
615 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

TXZ248>257-301000-
BROOKS-COASTAL CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-HIDALGO-INLAND CAMERON-
INLAND WILLACY-JIM HOGG-KENEDY-STARR-ZAPATA-
615 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT CDT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...SOME MAY BE SEVERE...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND SMALL HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

VANSPEYBROECK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
405 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

GMZ130-150-155-170-175-TXZ248>257-292315-
BROOKS-COASTAL CAMERON-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WILLACY-HIDALGO-INLAND CAMERON-INLAND WILLACY-JIM HOGG-
KENEDY-LAGUNA MADRE-STARR-
WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
ZAPATA-
405 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

...AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS MAY RESULT IN STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR AREAS JUST NORTH OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES OVER
NORTHEAST MEXICO SHOULD MIGRATE OVER OUR REGION BENEATH THE TROUGH.
ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE
INTENSE...AS OUR ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM HIDALGO
AND BROOKS COUNTIES WEST INTO ZAPATA COUNTY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...OR YOUR CABLE TELEVISION SERVICE PROVIDER FOR LATER
STATEMENTS CONCERNING THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. PHILO

PHILO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
543 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

GMZ130-TXZ248>257-300100-
BROOKS-COASTAL CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-HIDALGO-INLAND CAMERON-
INLAND WILLACY-JIM HOGG-KENEDY-LAGUNA MADRE-STARR-ZAPATA-
543 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
VALID UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT SUNDAY EVENING. THE WATCH INCLUDES THE
COUNTIES OF ZAPATA...JIM HOGG...STARR...BROOKS...HIDALGO...KENEDY...
WILLACY...AND CAMERON COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE WATERS OF THE LAGUNA
MADRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IF TORNADOES
DO IN FACT DEVELOP OR ARE SPOTTED...THEN A TORNADO WARNING WILL BE
ISSUED.

EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND SPOTTER SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
ACTIVATION. RESIDENTS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT
AND BE READY TO QUICKLY ACT IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR
AREA. IF SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS YOUR AREA...THEN MOVE TO AN INTERIOR
ROOM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS OR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS REGARDING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

FOR THE LATEST WEATHER FORECASTS AND WARNINGS...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

VANSPEYBROECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
646 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     HAIL             5 SE ZAPATA             26.84N 99.20W
05/29/2005  0.75 INCH        ZAPATA             TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

KMV