Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Brownsville, TX

000 
WWUS54 KBRO 160126
SVSBRO

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
724 PM CST TUE MAR 15 2005

TXC489-160134-
/O.CAN.KBRO.SV.W.0001.000000T0000Z-050316T0200Z/
WILLACY TX-
724 PM CST TUE MAR 15 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN WILLACY COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS DISSIPATED VERY RAPIDLY THIS 
EVENING AND IS MOVING EAST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NO LONGER AT SEVERE LIMITS.  

LAT...LON 2644 9786 2634 9773 2637 9741 2654 9745

$$

GF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
330 PM CST TUE MAR 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS STREAMING NORTHEAST OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST WATERS
OF OLD MEXICO...AND INLAND OVER NUEVO LEON STATE. SURFACE ANALYSIS
AT 18 UTC FROM HPC ET AL INDICATES WARM FRONT OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE BRO CWA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE PUSHES A SURGE OF COLDER AIR THROUGH OUR
REGION BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH TOMORROW. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TONIGHT. GFS AND NAM ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON CONCERNING HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES...
WITH BOTH MODELS INDICATING WEDNESDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR
AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES EITHER HOLDING STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALLING DURING THE DAY AFTER SUNRISE. PRECIPITATION ENDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE 500 MB TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
JUST A FEW CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. ONSHORE FLOW REDEVELOPS
ON FRIDAY AND PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF
WEAK 500 MB TROUGHS PASS OVER DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD GENERALLY BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.MARINE...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. 10 KNOT EAST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS HAVE
SLACKENED AND VEERED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT WILL BACK AROUND TO THE NORTH AND INCREASE TO 20-25
KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING. A BREEZY NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW WILL STIR SEAS UP TO NEAR 10 FEET OVER THE OUTER
COASTAL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THURSDAY.
THESE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP TO LESS THAN 20 KNOTS AND 7 FEET
RESPECTIVELY BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.AVIATION...A BROKEN LOW CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 3K AND 4K FEET COVERS
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST...LOWERING
AFTER SUNSET AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. HEAVY
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD TEMPORARILY LOWER VSBYS TO
1 OR 2 MILES DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. CIGS WILL LIKELY DROP
TO IFR HEIGHTS BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TONIGHT AND REMAIN AT LOW LEVELS
INTO THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...66
MARINE/AVIATION...69
MESO...MARTINEZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1142 AM CST TUE MAR 15 2005

TXZ248>257-161200-
BROOKS-COASTAL CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-HIDALGO-INLAND CAMERON-
INLAND WILLACY-JIM HOGG-KENEDY-STARR-ZAPATA-
1142 AM CST TUE MAR 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MILES PER HOUR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE POSTED FROM
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO
NEAR TEN FEET OFF SHORE. HIGH SEAS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS LIKELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

69