Winter Weather Advisory 2, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
356 PM EST THU DEC 15 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
COMING SOON.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
NOT MUCH SENSIBLE WEATHER THIS PERIOD BEHIND DEPARTING FRI STORM.
TRAILING S/WV FRI EVENING WILL USHER IN A REINFORCING SURGE OF
SEASONABLY COLD WX INTO THE REGION...WITH A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE TROF
DOMINATING THE NORTHEAST SAT AND SUN. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO DRY AND
SEASONABLY COLD WX THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

AS FOR MON THRU THU...MODELS IN OVERALL GD AGREEMENT DAYS 4 AND 5
(MON & TUE)...WITH A STRONG WRN RIDGE AND A PROGRESSIVE POSITIVELY
TILTED DOWNSTREAM TROF OVER THE EAST. ANY SFC DVLPMNT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROF REMAINS WELL OFSHR...AS MID AND UPR TROF REMAIN OPEN
AND PROGRESSIVE. TROF PASSAGE TUE WILL RESULT IN A REINFORCING SURGE
OF COLD AIR. SO EXPECTING DRY WEATHER MON AND TUE WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS...ESP TUE.

BY DAYS 6 & 7 (WED AND THU)...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN. THE 00Z GFS/UKMET AND CMC GLOBAL MAINTAIN THE LARGE
AMPLITUDE WESTERN RIDGE...WITH DOWNSTREAM TROF AMPLIFICATION OVER
THE EAST YIELDING CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD THU. THE 00Z
ECMWF BREAKS DOWN THE WESTERN RIDGE WHICH RESULTS IN A MUCH FLATTER
EASTERN TROF AND WEAKER SFC DVLPMNT. HPC INFORMS ME THAT THE NCEP
ENS SUPPORT THE FLATTER 00Z ECMWF. IN ADDITION...LATEST 12Z GFS HAS
NOW FLOPPED TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF. THEREFORE...MY CONFIDENCE IS BELOW
AVG IN A COASTAL STORM THU. ALTH GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WESTERN
RIDGE...THINK THE 00Z ECMWF...NCEP ENS AND NOW 12Z GFS ARE TOO QUICK
BREAKING DOWN THIS LARGE AMPLITUDE FEATURE. THUS...LEANING TWD THE
00Z GFS/UKMET AND CMC GLOBAL SOLUTION. HWR...WITH THIS BEING A DAY 7
FCST...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY AND COLD FCST FOR WED AND THU...AND JUST
HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS OF LATER MDL RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...
COMING SOON.

&&

.MARINE...
IN THE SHORT TERM...COMING SOON.

FRI NIGHT AND BEYOND...POST FRONTAL WNDS FRI NGT MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH
GALE FORCE...ALTH FOR NOW CAPPED WNDS AT 30 KT. THEREAFTER...PROLONG
PERIOD OF WESTERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD AVERAGE 15-20 KT SAT THRU TUE.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CTZ002>004 FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 10
     AM FRIDAY.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MAZ002>006-008-010-012>014-026
     FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 2 PM FRIDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MAZ009-011 FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 10
     AM FRIDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR MAZ016-019 FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 3 PM FRIDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MAZ020>024 FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 3 PM FRIDAY.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NHZ011-015 FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 4 PM
     FRIDAY.
  ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NHZ012 FROM 2 AM FRIDAY TO 2 PM
     FRIDAY.
RI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RIZ001 FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM
     FRIDAY.
  ...HIGH WIND WATCH FOR RIZ006>008 FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 3 PM FRIDAY.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ230>237 FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 2 PM FRIDAY.
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ230>237-250-254-255 FROM 1 AM
     FRIDAY TO 6 AM FRIDAY.
  ...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ250-254-255 FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 11 PM
     FRIDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...THOMPSON
LONG TERM...NOCERA
AVIATION...THOMPSON
MARINE...THOMPSON/NOCERA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
710 AM EST THU DEC 15 2005...UPDATED

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-161213-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-
NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
710 AM EST THU DEC 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT...
ALL OF MASSACHUSETTS EXCEPT BERKSHIRE COUNTY...SOUTHWEST NEW
HAMPSHIRE...AND ALL OF RHODE OF ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SNOW SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
LATE TONIGHT. MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CAUSE SLIPPERY CONDITIONS
FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE FROM BOSTON AND ITS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SUBURBS WEST TO WORCESTER...SPRINGFIELD AND HARTFORD NORTH
INTO SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO
RAIN BY MIDDAY SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE AND ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTAL
LOCATIONS. MIXED PRECIPITATION INLAND WILL END BY EARLY
EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 INCHES IN
SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE TO 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE...
TO GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. IN ADDITION A GLAZE
ACCUMULATION OF ONE QUARTER INCH OR LESS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...CENTRAL AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL
AS SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

GALE FORCE WINDS WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS FROM 40 OR 45 KT
MAY OCCUR ON THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO RELAY REPORTS OF PRECIPITATION
TYPE CHANGES...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE AND GLAZE
ACCUMULATIONS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
FRIDAY.

STRAUSS