Wind Advisory 11, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

000 
WWUS71 KBOX 030800
NPWBOX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
300 AM EST THU NOV 3 2005

...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED IN MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS AFTERNOON...

.THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FELT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST
AND ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR
UPDATED INFORMATION.

CTZ004-MAZ002-005-008-009-013>015-017>019-026-RIZ001>004-031700-
/O.EXA.KBOX.WI.Y.0011.051103T1700Z-051103T2300Z/
WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
EASTERN KENT RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PUTNAM...WILLIMANTIC...CHARLEMONT...
FRAMINGHAM...LOWELL...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...FOXBORO...
NORWOOD...CAMBRIDGE...BOSTON...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...
AYER...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...
WARWICK
300 AM EST THU NOV 3 2005

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS PORTION OF THE WIND ADVISORY INCLUDES THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE BERKSHIRES...MUCH OF EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEAST
CONNECTICUT AND NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
OCCUR BETWEEN 1 AND 4 PM...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE WIND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...
POSSIBLY CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. DRIVING CAN ALSO BE
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

$$

MAZ004-012-016-020-021-RIZ005>008-031700-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0011.051103T1700Z-051103T2300Z/
NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-
NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BARRE...FITCHBURG...MILFORD...
WORCESTER...QUINCY...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...
BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND
300 AM EST THU NOV 3 2005

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS PORTION OF THE WIND ADVISORY INCLUDES CENTRAL
MASSACHUSETTS...THE BLUE HILLS NEAR BOSTON...AND THE SOUTH COASTS
OF RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. GUSTS MAY REACH 55 MPH ATOP
BLUE HILL. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 1 AND 4 PM...
BEFORE DIMINISHING EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE WIND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...
POSSIBLY CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. DRIVING CAN ALSO BE
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

$$

MAZ022>024-031700-
/O.CON.KBOX.WI.Y.0011.051103T1700Z-051104T0200Z/
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...
VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET
300 AM EST THU NOV 3 2005

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM EST
THIS EVENING...

A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM EST
THIS EVENING. THIS PORTION OF THE WIND ADVISORY INCLUDES CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD
OCCUR BETWEEN 2 AND 6 PM...BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

THE WIND MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...
POSSIBLY CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. DRIVING CAN ALSO BE
DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

$$

JWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
957 PM EST WED NOV 2 2005

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
HAVE MADE WIND ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST...MAINLY FOR THURSDAY.
WILL BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTH COASTS OF RHODE ISLAND AND
MASSACHUSETTS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TO INCLUDE THE WORCESTER
HILLS AND BLUE HILL. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW EXCELLENT MIXING BELOW
INVERSION AFTER 16Z TOMORROW. AND JUST BELOW INVERSION AT ABOUT 2K
FEET IS LOCATION OF LOW LEVEL JET BLOWING AT 45-50KT. ALL DUE TO
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW SCOOTING ACROSS SOUTHERN
QUEBEC AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF MID ATLC COAST.

HAVE ADJUSTED MARINE HEADLINES AS WELL TO INCLUDE NARR BAY IN A GALE
WARNING...AND TO EXTEND TIME OF GALES ALONG OUTER WATERS THROUGH 06Z
FRIDAY.

OTHER PARAMETERS NUDGED A BIT WAS THE TIMING OF UPSTREAM CLOUDS
DIVING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF WARM FRONT AND OTHER COSMETIC TWEAKS.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 338 PM EST WED NOV 2 2005)

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FAST ZONAL FLOW WILL PREAVAIL ACRS NEW ENG DURING THIS PERIOD.  WITH
LOW AMPLITUDE PATTERN SHORTWAVES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF NEW ENG WITH
DRY WEATHER CONTINUING AND ANOTHER WARMING TREND.

SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES QUICKLY EWD ACRS NEW ENG TNGT THEN E OF REGION
BY DAYBREAK.  AS RIDGE APPROACHES WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND EXPECT CLR
SKIES FOR MOST OF TNGT.  ONSET OF WEAK WAA AHEAD OF WFNT WILL ALLOW
SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPILL INTO SNE FROM THE N AND W LATE
TNGT AND EARLY FRI.  MINS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 30S WITH
SUBFREEZING TEMPS PSBL NW MA AND S NH.

ANY CLOUDS EARLY THU SHOULD LIFT NE RESULTING IN MOSUNNY SKIES.  IT
WILL BECOME WINDY AS A STRONG SW GRADIENT DEVELOPS BY AFTN.  50 KT
JET AT 850 MB MOVES ACRS REGION AND NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW 45
KTS DOWN TO 2K FT.  THERE IS AN INVERSION BUT IT IS MODELED ABOVE 2K
FT AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENT MIXING FOR GUSTS
TO 40-45 MPH THU AFTN.  WE WILL PROBABLY NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR AT
LEAST A PORTION OF CAPE/ISLANDS.  WE WILL LET LATER SHIFTS MAKE
DETERMINATION ON THIS.  TEMPS WILL RECOVER NICELY FROM A CHILLY
START AS 850 TEMPS SOAR TO +10.  SHALLOW MIXING DEPTH WILL PRECLUDE
FULL HEATING POTENTIAL BUT ENOUGH FOR MAXES INTO LOWER 60S.

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY THU EVNG THEN WINDS
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THU NGT AS JET MOVES EWD AND GRADIENT RELAXES.
WEAK BACKDOOR FNT SLIPS SWD INTO NNE THU NGT AND MAY BRIEFLY GET
INTO NE MA AND S NH EARLY FRI BEFORE RETREATING NWD.  MAIN EFFECT OF
THIS FNT WILL BE A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS ACRS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FA.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND CHC SHWRS WILL REMAIN TO THE N ACRS NNE.  850 MB
TEMPS RISE TO +12 TO +14 ON FRI.  MIXING DEPTH LIMITED AGAIN BUT BL
TEMPS SUGGEST BIG WARMUP TO 70+ ON FRI AWAY FROM THE S COAST SO HAVE
BUMPED UP GUIDANCE TEMPS TO REFLECT THIS.  COOLER ACRS SRN NH DUE TO
PROXIMITY OF CDFNT AND COOLER BL TEMPS.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY CONTINUES TO BE A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD
FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER.  IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS ON SATURDAY.  BY
MONDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY COOLER WEATHER TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM UP AGAIN AS THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL.

OFFSHORE HIGH COMBINED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES TO THE NORTH...WILL
BRING WARM SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH SUNDAY.  RESULTING TEMPERATURES (MAX AND MIN TEMPS) WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE WARMEST
DAY WILL BE SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY CLIMBING TO AROUND
70 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY AND ACROSS
NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND/INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS.  70 DEGREES
WILL NOT BREAK THE RECORDS FOR NOVEMBER 5TH...BUT IT WILL COME CLOSE
TO THE RECORD.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FOUR OF OUR CLIMATE SITES ON 5 NOVEMBER
ARE AS FOLLOWS...

WINDSOR LOCKS (BDL)    76 (1994)
PROVIDENCE (TF GREEN)  75 (1994)
BOSTON (LOGAN)         79 (1994)
WORCESTER (AIRPORT)    73 (1994)

ON SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND THEN NORTH NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC MONDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIP THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BECAUSE
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LESS
AMPLIFIED AND QUICKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...WHEREAS THE ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE
TO DEPICT A MORE AMPLIFIED AND...HENCE...SLOWER PASSAGE OF THE LOW
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

AS HPC DISCUSSED...YESTERDAYS 12Z AND 18Z GFS MODEL RUNS WERE
TRENDING TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED 500 MB TROUGH THAT THE GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING IN RECENT DAYS.  HOWEVER...TODAYS 00Z AND
06Z GFS MODEL RUNS WERE ONCE AGAIN TRENDING BACK TOWARD THE LESS
AMPLIFIED (MORE PROGRESSIVE) SOLUTION  TO MAKE THE FORECAST EVEN
MORE CONFUSING...THE 12Z MODELS TODAY (INCLUDING THE ECMWF) ARE NOW
TRENDING TOWARDS A LESS AMPLIFIED (MORE PROGRESSIVE) SOLUTION LIKE
THE 00Z/06Z/12Z GFS MODEL RUNS  SINCE THE AMOUNT OF AMPLIFICATION
OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN VARYING FROM MODEL RUN TO MODEL
RUN...DECIDED NOT TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES BASED ON THE NEW
12Z DATA.  INSTEAD...WILL WAIT TO ANALYZE THE 00Z MODEL RUNS TONIGHT
TO
SEE IF THIS MORE PROGRESSIVE TREND IS CONSISTENT.

THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH
SOLUTION (SLOWER FRONTAL PROGRESSION THROUGH SNE). THUS...WENT WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT.

COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TEMPORARILY RETURN TO SNE BEHIND MONDAYS
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.  ON WEDNESDAY...WARMER
WEATHER WILL RETURN AS THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE
REGION.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD.  CU ALREADY DISSIPATING AND EXPECT
CLR SKIES TNGT WITH SOME MID/HI CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE N AND W
LATE TNGT AND EARLY THU AHEAD OF A WFNT.  GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING BUT INCREASE FROM THE SW BY MIDDAY THU AND MAY
SEE SOME G35KT BY LATER THU AFTN.

MARINE...
SHORT TERM...STILL SEEING SOME G25 KTS ON THE WATERS AND ENOUGH
GRADIENT TO SUPPORT CONTINUING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES INTO THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT THEY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM FOR NARR BAY AND BOS
HARBOR.  STRONG SW GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON THU AND BOTH NAM AND GFS
SHOW 45 KTS DOWN TO 2K FEET.  WE HAVE AN INVERSION BUT THESE WINDS
ARE JUST BELOW INVERSION.  SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH MIXING
POTENTIAL TO BRING DOWN SOME OF THIS JET SO WE DECIDED TO GO WITH
GALES THU AFTN/EVNG FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT BOS HARBOR AND NARR BAY
WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED.

LONG TERM... PERSISTENT SW FLOW FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BUILD SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON
MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...WIND ADVISORY FOR MAZ004-012-016-020-021 FROM NOON THURSDAY TO
     6 PM THURSDAY.
  ...WIND ADVISORY FOR MAZ022>024 FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 9 PM
     THURSDAY.
NH...NONE.
RI...WIND ADVISORY FOR RIZ005>008 FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 PM
     THURSDAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ230 FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 11 PM
     THURSDAY.
  ...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254-255 FROM NOON THURSDAY
     TO 1 AM FRIDAY.
  ...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ236 FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY.
  ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ250-254-255 UNTIL 1 AM THURSDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...KAB/MCJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
350 PM EST WED NOV 2 2005

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-031100-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-
NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA- SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN
KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
350 PM EST WED NOV 2 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT...ALL OF
MASSACHUSETTS EXCEPT BERKSHIRE COUNTY...SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE...AND
ALL OF RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE (TONIGHT)...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
IT WILL BECOME WINDY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST
UP TO 45 MPH.  A WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR BLUE
HILL AS WELL AS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY EVENING.

GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT BOSTON HARBOR AND NARRAGANSETT BAY
WHERE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

THESE STRONG WINDS COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 30
AND 40 PERCENT MAY LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.  BUT THE
GROUND REMAINS SATURATED FROM THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN
OCTOBER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

KJC