Snow Advisory 4, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

000 
WWUS41 KBOX 061644
WSWBOX

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1144 AM EST TUE DEC 6 2005

MAZ020>024-RIZ003>008-061745-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SN.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-051206T1700Z/
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-
NANTUCKET MA-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-
WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...
MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...
VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...
NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...NEWPORT...BLOCK ISLAND
1144 AM EST TUE DEC 6 2005

...SNOW ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS CANCELED THE SNOW
ADVISORY. SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES MAY LINGER
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...LITTLE 
IF ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

$$

FRANK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
302 AM EST TUE DEC 6 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)...
BASED UPON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WE ARE BACKING OFF
ON ACCUMULATIONS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WILL DROP ADVISORIES
FOR I-95 CORRIDOR AND LOWER WARNINGS TO ADVISORIES FOR S COASTAL ZONES.

IF WE WERE ALL AT 10KFT THIS WOULD BE A GOOD SNOWSTORM...BUT LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR HAS BEEN WINNING THE BATTLE ALL NIGHT AND WILL LIMIT
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF SNOW SHIELD THIS MORNING. SURFACE MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS RIDGING WORKING DOWN INTO NORTHERN CT...NW RI AND MUCH OF SE MA
WHICH CAN ALSO BE SEEN BY A LACK OF ECHOES ON KBOX 88D.

PRECIPITATION ON RADAR MOSAIC MATCHES UP VERY WELL WITH 850-700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS FIELDS...BUT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A PRONOUNCED DRY LAYER
NW OF KPVD-KTAN-KPYM WHICH HAS PREVENTED SNOW FROM MAKING IT MUCH
FARTHER N THAN S COAST. IN ADDITION...IR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS SPLIT
IN BEST ENHANCEMENT WITH ONE AREA HEADING OFF CAPE COD AND ISLANDS
AND A SECOND INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

RUC ACTUALLY DEPICTS EVOLUTION OF FEATURES NICELY THIS MORNING...
INDICATING LITTLE IF ANY SNOW BEFORE 15Z IN GREATER BOSTON AS LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDS...AND STRONGEST LIFT OVER S COAST BENEATH MAXIMUM
SNOW GROWTH REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WHICH WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS.

AS A RESULT...IT NOW APPEARS THAT SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL ONLY BE 2-4
AT MOST ALONG S COAST...CAPE COD AND ISLANDS WITH AN INCH INTO
PROVIDENCE AND PLYMOUTH AND LITTLE IF ANYTHING FARTHER N.

MORE LATER.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
FORECAST LOOKS REASONABLE AND FEW IF ANY CHANGES ARE BEING MADE.

MAIN ITEM OF INTEREST IS POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM FRI...AS YET ANOTHER
SYSTEM PUSHES OFF MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS TIME WE DO NOT HAVE
PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS...BUT 500 MB TROUGH IS A
POTENT ONE. 00Z GFS BRINGS SYSTEM CLOSE ENOUGH TO 40/70 BENCHMARK TO
HAVE AN IMPACT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS DOES CANADIAN...BUT 12Z/5
ECMWF IS A BIT FARTHER SE. WE LIKE THIS FARTHER OFFSHORE SOLUTION
WHICH HAS GOOD SUPPORT FROM 18Z/5 MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE MEAN...SO FOR
NOW WE ARE THINKING THIS WILL BE A NEAR MISS FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.
THAT SAID HOWEVER...PASSAGE OF 500 MB TROUGH ALONE SHOULD BE GOOD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...
COMING LATER.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM COMING LATER.

IN THE LONGER TERM...WE WILL CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES INTO WED
DUE TO TIGHT GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT 25KT GUSTS. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THU...BUT
SHOULD PICK UP ONCE AGAIN LATE FRI INTO SAT BEHIND NEXT COASTAL LOW
WHICH SHOULD PASS WELL SE OF NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...SNOW ADVISORY FOR MAZ020>024 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
NH...NONE.
RI...SNOW ADVISORY FOR RIZ003>008 UNTIL NOON TUESDAY.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254-255 UNTIL 6 PM
     WEDNESDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...JWD/BELK/MCJ
LONG TERM...JWD
AVIATION...BELK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
312 PM EST MON DEC 5 2005

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-061200-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-BRISTOL RI-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
CHESHIRE NH-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
EASTERN KENT RI-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-HARTFORD CT-
NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-
NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-SUFFOLK MA-TOLLAND CT-
WASHINGTON RI-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-WESTERN ESSEX MA-
WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN KENT RI-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-WINDHAM CT-
312 PM EST MON DEC 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT...
ALL OF MASSACHUSETTS EXCEPT BERKSHIRE COUNTY...SOUTHWEST NEW
HAMPSHIRE...AND ALL OF RHODE OF ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN POSTED FOR THE SOUTH
COAST OF RHODE ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS. THIS INCLUDES BLOCK
ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD...NANTUCKET AND CAPE COD. HEAVY SNOWFALL
APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA...BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT. FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM
PROVIDENCE TO BOSTON AND THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS....A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.  SNOW WILL
OVERSPREAD THIS REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE
AFTERNOON. IN THE WARNING AREA SNOWFALL OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IS
EXPECTED...WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THESE AMOUNTS LIKELY ON CAPE COD AND
THE ISLANDS. FARTHER NORTH INTO THE ADVISORY AREA FROM PROVIDENCE TO
BOSTON AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS...2 TO 4 INCHES IS ANTICIPATED
WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS FROM PROVIDENCE TO TAUNTON.  JUST AN INCH
OR LESS OF SNOW IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NOREASTER ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW TO THE REGION BUT THE EXACT TRACK REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. IF THE STORM DOES TRACK CLOSE TO THE COAST THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ON THE COAST. HOWEVER...IT
COULD JUST AS EASILY TRACK TO THE EAST OF THE REGION DELIVERING A
GRAZING BLOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER AND SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR SNOW AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

FRANK/KJC