Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

000 
WWUS55 KBOU 302037
SVSBOU

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
237 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2005

COC059-302100-
/O.CON.KBOU.SV.W.0075.000000T0000Z-050530T2100Z/
JEFFERSON CO-
237 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 300 PM MDT FOR
CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY...

AT 235 PM MDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS CONTINUED TO REPORT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
KEN CARYL...OR ABOUT 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DENVER...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
TINY TOWN...RED ROCKS PARK...MORRISON...KITTREDGE...INDIAN HILLS...
IDLEDALE...CONIFER...ASPEN PARK...LAKEWOOD AND SOUTHEASTERN GOLDEN.

LAT...LON 3955 10534 3940 10529 3942 10521 3952 10509
      3959 10506 3960 10513 3965 10514 3965 10510
      3975 10507 3968 10534

$$
RJK

000 
WWUS55 KBOU 302055
SVSBOU

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
256 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2005

COC059-302106-
/O.EXP.KBOU.SV.W.0075.000000T0000Z-050530T2100Z/
JEFFERSON CO-
256 PM MDT MON MAY 30 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL JEFFERSON COUNTY
EXPIRED AT 300 PM MDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER.

LAT...LON 3955 10534 3940 10529 3942 10521 3952 10509
      3959 10506 3960 10513 3965 10514 3965 10510
      3975 10507 3968 10534

$$

RJK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
255 PM MDT SUN MAY 29 2005

.SHORT TERM...QUTIE A BIT OF CONVECTION HAS BROKEN OUT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTN WITH EVEN MORE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
WESTERN SLOPE OF CO AND BACK INTO WRN UTAH. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING AS THEY DRIFT INTO THE COOLER MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THE MID LVL MSTR WILL DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE
UPR WAVE PASSES AND MSTR DEPTH BECOMES A BIT MORE SHALLOW. STILL
LOOKS DEEP ENOUGH FOR DRIZZLE AND FOG OVERNITE AND INTO MON AM...ESP
FOOTHILLS AND ADJ AREAS. ANOTHER COOL AND CLOUDY DAY ON TAP FOR
MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHWEST NEVADA. MODELS
ARE NOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINING THE WEAKENING LOW ACRROSS CO
LATE MONDAY WITH DECENT UPWARD ASCENT MOVING OVER THE CWA. MAY AGAIN
GET SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH THE SHALLOW UPSLOPE FLOW AND WILL
BUMP POPS UP TO LIKELY FOR MON AFTERNOON. TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH MAINLY 50S ON THE PLAINS. THERE WILL BE SOME
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS BUT GIVEN FCST SOUNDINGS/WET
BULB THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE AROUND 10K TNT AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT OUT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MONDAY NIGHT DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE WYOMING AND
IDAHO BORDER MAKES VERY SLOW SEWRD PROGRESS ACROSS WYOMING WITH THE
500MB LOW SOMEWHERE NEAR CHEYENNE BY 00Z/WEDNESDAY. AREA OF STRONG
MID-LEVEL ASCENT/QG OMEGA ROUNDING BOTTOM OF THE UPPER LOW SWINGS
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS ALSO SHOW A PRETTY
DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE AS IT PASSES OVER
THE NRN MOUNTAIN AND WRN VALLEYS FROM 00Z-06Z/TUESDAY. EARLIER
THOUGHT TEMPS WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW DOWN TO AROUND 8K FT
MSL...BUT NOW NAM AND GFS INDICATE FREEZING LEVEL OVERNIGHT UP
AROUND 11K FEET. SO WILL STILL MENTION A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT
HIGH ELEVATIONS. DO NOT SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FRONT RANGE
FOOTHILLS AS WAS ONCE ONCE THOUGHT. AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND
ASCENT REGION MOVES EAST OUT ACROSS THE NERN PLAINS EXPECT TO SEE AN
INCREASE IN RAINFALL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. WILL GO WITH LIKELY
POPS IN THE EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES WHERE 6-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS
FCSTD IN THE 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH RANGE BY 12Z/TUESDAY. SHOULD SEE A
FAIRLY RAPID DROP OFF IN PRECIPITATION OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND
ADJACENT PLAINS WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING NWLY WITH PASSAGE OF THE
700-500MB TROUGH AXIS.

TUESDAY STILL LOOKS UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL
OVERHEAD WITH THE UPPER TROUGH HANGING AROUND. ATMOSPHERE OVER NERN
COLORADO REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO WARRANT AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF T-STORMS AREAWIDE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BY WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES BOTH
SFC AND ALOFT TO WARM WITH RETURN TO W MTN TOP FLOW. LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON PROMPTING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
T-STORMS IN THE MTN AND FOOTHILL ZONES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW ANOTHER COLD
CORE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OVER THE NRN
ROCKY MTNS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MODELS ALSO SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG
PACIFIC COLD FRONT SWEEPING OVER THE NRN MTNS THURSDAY MORNING AND
OUT ACROSS THE NERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES LOOK
QUITE STEEP AND WITH SFC DEWPTS FCST TO BE IN THE UPPER 40/LOWER
50S...COULD SEE A FEW HIGH PLAINS STORMS BECOMING SEVERE. REALLY TOO
EARLY TO SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY. FRIDAY LOOKS DRIER WITH WLY FLOW
ALOFT. ATMOSPHERE LOOKS PRETTY DRY AND STABLE EAST OF THE MTNS SO
NOT PCPN EAST OF THE MTNS. ON SATURDAY SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF LATE DAY
T-STORMS WITH STRONG HEATING.

&&

.BOU...NONE.

&&

ENTREKIN/BAKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1116 AM MDT MON MAY 30 2005

COZ030>051-311200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1116 AM MDT MON MAY 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  A FEW
STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE STRONGER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THEY MOVE
INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE THIS EVENING...MAINLY IN LOCATIONS EAST OF A
LINE FROM FORT MORGAN TO LIMON.  HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF ANY
FLOODING WILL BE LIMITED BY THE RATHER DRY SOIL CONDITIONS.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL PRODUCE THE WET AND UNSTABLE WEATHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. DAYTIME HEATING
WILL PRODUCE MOST OF THE LIFT AND INSTABILITY REQUIRED FOR THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER PASSAGE OF A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT LATE ON
THURSDAY MAY PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON THE NORTHEAST PLAINS OF
COLORADO CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

BARJENBRUCH/BAKER