Severe Thunderstorm Warning 186, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
238 PM MDT TUE JUL 12 2005

.SHORT TERM...A FEW STORMS BEGINNING TO FIRE ALONG A BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL ELBERT COUNTY NORTHEAST TO SEDGWICK COUNTY.
WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES AROUND 1600 J/KG...AS NOTED BY LATEST LAPS
SURFACE DATA...BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
BE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.  PLATTEVILLE PROFILER SHOWING WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW TO AROUND 700 MB...AND WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS STILL HANGING IN
THE 50S ACROSS PLAINS...WILL KEEP SOME STORMS IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING. SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW GIVEN MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND LACK OF UPPER DYNAMICS. A FEW STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
COULD BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH WIND GUSTS THE MAIN
THREAT.  MAY BE SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH THE STORMS AS THE LATEST
GPS INTEGRATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HOVERING AROUND NINE
TENTHS OF AN INCH. GIVEN LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT...STORMS SHOULD BE
GONE BY MIDNIGHT.  ON WEDESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD ALONG WEST SLOPE.  LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW STILL PROGGED ACROSS
PLAINS...SHOULD MAINTAIN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WARMING ALOFT ALONG WITH MID LEVEL DRYING. SO...
BARRING ANY SUBTLE BOUNDARIES HANGING AROUND... THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
LIMITED TO SOUTHERN FRINGES OF CWA...SPECIFICALLY FOOTHILLS OF
DOUGLAS AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES...WHERE UPSLOPE SHOULD AID
IN DEVELOPMENT. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD AGAIN REACH THE 90S ACROSS
THE PLAINS...THOUGH IT APPEARS THE HIGH OF 98 OFF THE NGM GUIDANCE
FOR DENVER APPEARS A BIT OVERDONE. STILL...WILL ADD A DEGREE OR TWO
TO THE TEMPERATURE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...THE STRONG RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS WRN CO
WITH THE FLOW ALOFT FROM THE N-NE. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN CAPPED ACROSS
MOST LOCATIONS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE AROUND SUMMIT AND PARK
COUNTIES WHERE WILL KEEP ISOLD TS IN THOSE AREAS WITH JUST ENOUGH
MSTR/INSTABILITY TO POP A STORM. WILL KEEP EVERYONE ELSE DRY WED
NITE THRU THU. WILL MAINTAIN VERY LOW POPS FRI-SUN WITH VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE STILL ADVERTISING A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
TROF TO SWEEP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE SUN-MON TIME FRAME WITH
SIGNIFICANT COOLING AND BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS ERN CO.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY AND OTHER
INTERNATIONAL PLAYERS ARE SIMILAR...THOUGH OPERATIONAL 00Z GFS IS
ONE OF THE MORE DEEPER AND COOLER SOLUTIONS. NOT READY TO GO WILD
WITH THIS YET...BUT WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS AND
INCREASING POPS A BIT...ESP ON MONDAY.

&&

.BOU...NONE.

&&

D-L/SWE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1101 AM MDT TUE JUL 12 2005

COZ030>051-131200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1101 AM MDT TUE JUL 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS AND
ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS BY THE EVENING.  A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN NO THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT IS ANCHORED ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO. ONLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

THERE MAY BE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT AND BETTER MOISTURE MOVE INTO COLORADO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

D-L/SWE