Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Boise, ID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
950 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2005

.DISCUSSION...VERY UNSTABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...OR ANY TIME OF
YEAR FOR THAT MATTER.  12Z BOI SOUNDING HAS 1666 J/KG WITH LI OF
MINUS 5.7.  SPC HAS MOST OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK...MAINLY FOR
WINDS...FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  HWO HAS BEEN UPDATED.
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY START OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LIKE USUAL...BUT
EVEN IN THE VALLEY THE CONVECTIVE TEMP IS AN ATTAINABLE 88..ONLY TWO
OR SO DEGREES ABOVE CURRENT FORECAST.  CONSIDERING RAISING POPS AT
THIS TIME...WILL LOOK AT A FEW MORE THINGS BEFORE MAKING A FINAL
DETERMINATION.  LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE FOR MORE TRW OVER THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.  WILL CLOSELY MONITOR CONVECTIVE
SITUATION TODAY.  ANYONE PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES NEEDS TO MAKE
SURE TO STAY INFORMED ON THE LATEST WEATHER INFO THROUGHOUT THE DAY
AND INTO THIS EVENING.
&&

.AVIATION...ALL AREAS VFR TODAY. WILL SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS HIGH
BASE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND ALL OF SOUTHWEST IDAHO. TIMING OF CONVECTION IN CURRENT
TAF PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD THOUGH WILL LIKELY ADD AFTERNOON VCTS TO KTWF
TAF...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS ALREADY IN KBOI AND KMYL TAFS. BIGGEST
THREAT TO AIRCRAFT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS IN THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND
SOUTHEAST OREGON TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.  A NORTHEAST MOVING UPPER
LEVEL S/WV TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CA AT 09Z WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
MOISTURE NORTH INTO CWFA TODAY WHICH WILL MERGE WITH
DYNAMICS/MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH DIGGING S/WV TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
BC FOR SCATTERED WET SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN VALLEYS. STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY SOUTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO NV BORDER UNDER H7 THETA-E RIDGE AND
SOME H3 DIVERGENCE WHILE DIGGING S/WV WILL CONFINE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT TO MAINLY CENTRAL ID MOUNTAINS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TODAY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. NORTHERN S/WV SWINGS
EAST INTO MT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING SOUTHERN S/WV FOR
CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER CWFA. GOES SOUNDER SHOWING GOOD PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ALONG NORTHWEST COAST OVERNIGHT WHICH SPREAD OVER CWFA
TONIGHT FOR WETTING TYPE SHOWERS IN MOUNTAINS. 2ND S/WV OVER
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AT 09Z DIVES SOUTHEAST ALONG BC COAST LATE
TONIGHT/SUN TO KEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE OVER PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND KEEP THREAT OF SHOWERS NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES
DECREASING TOWARD ID/ORE/NV BORDER ZONES SUN. THIS DIGGING S/WV
TROUGH PUSHES SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS WA SUN NIGHT INTO CWFA EARLY
MON FOR INCREASING POPS BEGINNING NORTHERN ZONES SUN NIGHT AND
SPREADING SOUTH OVER REST OF CWFA MON. MODELS SHOW HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ALSO ACCOMPANYING THIS DIGGING SYSTEM FOR GOOD QPF
AMOUNTS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAIN ZONES MON. AS UPPER TROUGH OVER
REGION DEEPENS SUN/MON COOLER TEMPS EXPECTED REACHING 6-10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL BY MON.

LONG TERM...FOR SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY.  HARD TO BREAK THIS PATTERN OF SOME SORT OF TROF OR
LOW CENTER OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE WITH SOME MODEST RIDGING
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY MID WEEK. HAVE LEFT
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS VERY LOW AFTER MONDAY EVENING WHEN THE
WEEKEND TROF MOVES OUT. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL BY
MID WEEK AND REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AS THE
NEXT TROF TAKES UP POSITION OFF THE COAST BY THE COMING WEEKEND. &&
&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.ID...NONE.
.OR...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION........SP
AVIATION..........DG
PREV SHORT TERM...KP
PREV LONG TERM....PF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
925 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2005

IDZ011>016-028>030-ORZ061>064-261220-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-LOWER TREASURE VALLEY ID-BOISE MOUNTAINS-
UPPER TREASURE VALLEY-SOUTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY-
CAMAS PRAIRIE-OWYHEE MOUNTAINS-SOUTHERN TWIN FALLS COUNTY-
HARNEY COUNTY-BAKER COUNTY-MALHEUR COUNTY-
LOWER TREASURE VALLEY OR-
825 AM PDT SAT JUN 25 2005 /925 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
IDAHO...SOUTHWEST IDAHO...WEST CENTRAL IDAHO...SOUTHEAST OREGON
AND NORTHEAST OREGON.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER MOST OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM BURNS JUNCTION TO BOISE TO MCCALL...OR IN OTHER WORDS...EXTREME
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND MOST OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHCENTRAL IDAHO.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
LAST INTO THE EVENING OVER THE AREA.  INCREASING MOISTURE AND COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE VERY UNSTABLE AIR.  THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...WITH
GUSTS OVER 60 MPH POSSIBLE.  IN ADDITION...WE MAY SEE HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS WITH THE STRONGEST OF STORMS.  BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SP