Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Birmingham, AL

000
WWUS54 KBMX 221414
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
814 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

ALC119-221424-
/O.EXP.KBMX.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-050322T1415Z/
SUMTER AL-
814 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL SUMTER COUNTY
EXPIRES AT 815 AM CST...

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED. THE STORMS THAT PROMPTED THE 
WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3248 8815 3245 8803 3262 8790 3260 8808
      3260 8808

$$

KH/99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
257 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...

WELL...THE STAGE IS SET SYNOPTICALLY.  HOWEVER...THERES AS MANY
QUESTIONS ON THE MESOSCALE AS IN AN S.A.T. TEST.

CURRENTLY...THE BIG BAD UPPER TROF IS ROLLING EASTWARD AS EXPECTED...
WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW CENTERED ON OKLAHOMA. STRONG/SEVERE
STORMS HAVE FINALLY PUSHED ACROSS THE MS RIVER...WHILE ALABAMA
REMAINS HIGH AND DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND LOOKING AT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...
AND REFERENCING THE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS DETAILED IN YESTERDAY
MORNINGS DISCUSSION...IT LOOKS LIKE SCENARIO 1 (EARLY MORNING
SQUALL LINE THROUGH ALABAMA) IS THE LEAST LIKELY TO HAPPEN.
STRONGEST CELLS HAVE ONLY JUST BARELY MOVED ACROSS THE MS RIVER.
PLUS...THESE STORMS ARENT YET THE MOST LINEAR ORGANIZED THINGS
IVE SEEN.  NOT TO MENTION THAT DEWPOINTS FARTHER TO THE EAST OF THE
CURRENT CONVECTION WOULD NOT REALLY BE ALL THAT SUPPORTIVE FOR
SUSTAINING IT.

YOU KNOW...I MAYBE SHOULD HAVE RECOGNIZED THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FOURTH SCENARIO YESTERDAY -- ONE IN WHICH THE MODE OF CONVECTION
REMAINS MORE SUPERCELLULAR...OR CLUSTERED...RATHER THAN LINEAR.
THIS SCENARIO WOULD DECREASE THE IMPORTANCE OF TIMING OF THE
ARRIVAL OF THE CONVECTION INTO ALABAMA.  MEANING...THE LACK OF A
SQUALL LINE PASSAGE ELIMINATES THE NEED FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO
RELOAD AFTERWARDS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE.

WHICH BRINGS US BACK TO THE MESOSCALE QUESTIONS...THE MOST IMPORTANT
ONES BEING...

1) WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THE CURRENT STORMS NEAR THE MS RIVER?  WILL
THEY MOVE MORE NORTH THAN EAST?  WILL THEY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN THEIR
STRENGTH?  AND WILL THEY ORGANIZE MORE LINEARLY?

2) CAN SURFACE DEWPOINTS HERE RISE INTO LOWER 60S?

3) HOW MUCH SUNSHINE WILL THERE BE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND HOW WARM WILL IT GET TODAY AS A RESULT?

THE SEQUENCE OF EVENTS (AND ANSWERS TO THE ABOVE QUESTIONS) THAT
WOULD CONCERN ME THE MOST IS THAT THE CURRENT MS RIVER CONVECTION
EITHER REMAINS TO OUR WEST THROUGH NOON (OR WEAKENS BEFORE IT GETS
HERE)...THE SUN COMES OUT AND RAISES TEMPS INTO THE 70S...AND
DEWPOINTS ARE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S.  IF THIS WERE TO
HAPPEN...GIVEN HOW THINGS ARE FORECAST TO BE SYNOPTICALLY (AS FAR AS
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETERS GO)...THEN I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE
EXPLOSIVE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.

AS I SEE IT...THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY TODAY ON HOW MUCH SEVERE
WEATHER WE GET IS WITH THE DEWPOINTS.  THE MODELS (ESPECIALLY THE
ETA) SHOW THAT AFTER 21Z TODAY...LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITIES...AND
SHEAR/HELICITY PARAMETERS ALL WOULD SUPPORT CELLULARLY ORGANIZED
SEVERE CONVECTION.  THIS MAY BE A CASE WHERE THE TRIGGER OF THIS
LOADED GUN IS ACTUALLY HIGH DEWPOINTS ADVECTING IN AT JUST THE RIGHT
TIME.  SURE...THIS IS ALL QUITE A SPECIFIC SERIES OF EVENTS THAT
WOULD NEED TO HAPPEN...BUT ONE HAS TO BE SITUATIONALLY AWARE TO ALL
POSSIBILITIES.

ANYWAY...HAVING SAID ALL THAT...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH SEVERE
WORDING IN THE ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.  ALSO...GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL
OUTPUT THAT SHOWS THINGS HAPPENING SLOWER...WILL ALSO INCLUDE SOME
SEVERE WORDING INTO THIS EVENING AS WELL.

THE BAD WEATHER SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF HERE LATE TONIGHT...TAKING US
BACK TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.  FRIDAY LOOKS
RATHER TOASTY.

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY IN
ADVANCE OF NEXT STORM SYSTEM.  WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
ON SATURDAY.  COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. IMPRESSIVE UPPER SUPPORT AND VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
IN PLACE.  WILL FORECAST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON
SUNDAY. WITH TIMING REMAINING A PROBLEM WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AREA-WIDE ON MONDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SLOW DOWN IN THE UPPER
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     69  54  63  41 /  50  50  10   0
ANNISTON    69  55  63  41 /  50  50  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  69  54  63  42 /  60  50  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  71  52  63  42 /  70  40   0   0
CALERA      71  54  64  42 /  50  50   0   0
AUBURN      71  58  70  44 /  50  40   0   0
MONTGOMERY  73  55  70  44 /  50  40   0   0
TROY        72  57  71  45 /  50  30   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

61/50

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
618 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

ALZ011>015-017>050-231218-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
618 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT).

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA. SOME SUPERCELLS COULD DEVELOP AS THE
AIR MASS DESTABILIZES...UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES ACROSS...AND PEAK
HEATING OF THE DAY TAKES PLACE.  ISOLATED TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY).

THERE IS ALSO A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE
SATURDAY AND INTO EASTER SUNDAY...AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
HIGHLY LIKELY AREA-WIDE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
340 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

ALZ011>015-017>050-221700-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
340 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...

A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CONNECTED TO A STRONG
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE...WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.  THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER A
MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF ALABAMA THIS MORNING.  WATCHES HAVE ALREADY
BEEN POSTED TO OUR WEST AND IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT A WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AS THE UPPER SUPPORT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY AND GIVEN THE FAVORABLE WIND
PROFILE...SOME SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL
ALABAMA. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION AND ALL ALABAMIANS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO REVIEW THEIR SEVERE WEATHER PROCEDURES NOW.  WITH
MANY ALABAMA SCHOOLS ON SPRING BREAK THIS WEEK...AND SOME KIDS
POSSIBLY HOME ALONE...ALL FAMILY MEMBERS SHOULD KNOW WHAT TO DO IF
SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTS THEIR AREA AND HAVE A PLAN OF ACTION SHOULD
THE NEED ARISE.

PLEASE MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL MEDIA...OR OTHER
FAMILIAR SOURCES OF INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AS WELL AS
ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS THAT ARE ISSUED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
745 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

ALZ030-221415-
SUMTER-
745 AM CST TUE MAR 22 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR SUMTER COUNTY UNTIL 815 AM
CST...

...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE FROM AN APPROACHING
THUNDERSTORM...

...SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE FROM AN APPROACHING THUNDERSTORM...

AT 741 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM OVER BELLAMY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND NEAR BELLAMY THROUGH 815
AM CST.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS SMALL HAIL. HAIL UP TO ONE
HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...IS POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS IN THE
VICINITY OF THESE STORMS...TAKE SHELTER NOW.