Severe Thunderstorm Warning 471, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
730 PM CST SAT DEC 3 2005

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS FINALLY GETTING STARTED ACROSS WESTERN TENNESSEE.
UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS AT KJAN AND KBMX SHOW A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
AT 850MB AND 700MB RESPECTIVELY.  THIS INVERSION WILL BE HARD TO
BREAK AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS AREA UNTIL WELL
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SPC HAS MOVED SOUTHERN EDGE OF SLIGHT RISK FARTHER
NORTHWARD AND ONLY MARION/LAMAR COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA THRU
6 AM SUNDAY.  WITH A LATER ARRIVAL OF SHWRS/TSTMS...REDUCED RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.

WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IN PLACE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT LIKELY FALL BELOW MORE THAN A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW CURRENT
READINGS AND ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPS UPWARD.

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.

&&

58/ROSE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
832 PM CST SAT DEC 3 2005

ALZ011>015-017>050-050233-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
832 PM CST SAT DEC 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE. THE TIME FRAME OF CONCERN WILL BE
BETWEEN 2 AND 6 AM FOR NORTHWEST ALABAMA.

FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 59 AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65...WINDS IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.  THE ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED
TO THE EXTREME NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF MARION AND LAMAR.

FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 59...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL HAS DECREASED
FOR THE OVER NIGHT HOURS.  THIS IS DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING NATURE
OF THE DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ON SUNDAY...SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL A CONCERN...WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. AT THIS TIME, THE THREAT
WILL MAINLY BE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 59 AND/OR EAST OF
INTERSTATE 65. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

AT THIS TIME...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT FOR NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
159 AM CST SUN DEC 04 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 AM     HAIL             HALEYVILLE              34.24N 87.62W
12/04/2005  0.88 INCH        WINSTON            AL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL REPORTED

&&

61

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
207 AM CST SUN DEC 4 2005

ALZ012-040845-
LAMAR-
207 AM CST SUN DEC 4 2005

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR LAMAR COUNTY UNTIL 245 AM
CST...

...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE FROM APPROACHING
THUNDERSTORMS...

...WINDS 35 TO 45 MILES AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE FROM APPROACHING
THUNDERSTORMS...

AT 204 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF BEAVERTON TO 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF MOLLOY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND NEAR
SULLIGENT...BEAVERTON...MOLLOY...VERNON AND MANSFIELD THROUGH 245 AM
CST.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THESE
WINDS CAN BREAK OFF SMALL TREE LIMBS...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
OBJECTS SUCH AS LAWN FURNITURE AND TRASH CANS.

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