Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
302 PM CST MON MAR 7 2005

.SYNOPSIS...

REALLY A MAJOR OVERHAUL TO BOTH THE SHORT AND LONG RANGE THIS
UPDATE...SCALED BACK THE SEVERE THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM...ALONG
WITH ADDING STRONG WINDS TO TOMORROW.  IN THE MEDIUM LONG RANGE...
ADJUSTED TEMPT OUT THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THE WHOLE 9 YARDS FOR
OTHER VARIABLES.

FIRST CONCERN IT THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING.
STILL LOOKS LIKE A VERY MARGINAL EVENT AND WOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT TRAVERSES THE STATE BETWEEN 00Z
AND MIDNIGHT.  DEW POINTS HAVE JUST NOR REACHED THE MIDDLE 50S IN
CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND CLOUDS/RAIN HAS VIRTUALLY NEGATED ANY
DESTABILIZATION.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE...IF
NOT SATURATION THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WHICH SHOULD LIMIT
THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND WIND.  HOWEVER...IF SOME WINDS ARE ABLE
TO BE TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE FROM ALOFT...THERE COULD BE A WIND
THREAT...BUT THEY SHOULNT BE ENHANCED BY DRY AIR.  NEWEST SWODY1
FROM THE SPC STILL HIGHLIGHTS THIS THREAT.  I HAVE MY DOUBTS.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL.
GRADIENT WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY
TOMORROW.  WILL HOLD OFF ON THE ISSUANCE OF A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
UNTIL THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXTINCT.  EXPECTING ANY
THUNDER AFTER MIDNIGHT...REALLY ONLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST.

.SHORT TERM...OVERNIGHT SEVERE/WIND AND TOMORROWS WIND CONCERNS
DISCUSSED EARLIER.  OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT BY SUNSET.  THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN OVERNIGHT AS RADIATIONAL PARAMETERS
BECOME FAVORABLE.

.LONG TERM...MAIN CONCERN AFTER MIDWEEK IS THE COMBINATION OF
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S (CURRENTLY MOSTLY ABOVE FREEZING) AND A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.  THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW VARIES FROM
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF...TO NEAR NASHVILLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
ONCE AGAIN AM VERY HESITANT ABOUT INTRODUCING THE S WORD INTO
THE FORECAST.   AFTER THAT...GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED EACH DAY
WITH A NICE LOOKING WEEKEND AHEAD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     43  50  28  53 / 100  20  10  30
ANNISTON    43  50  30  53 / 100  20  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  44  52  32  54 / 100   0  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  45  54  34  54 / 100   0  10  30
CALERA      45  54  34  55 / 100   0  10  30
AUBURN      48  53  33  57 / 100  20  10  20
MONTGOMERY  48  54  34  58 / 100   0  10  20
TROY        49  56  34  58 / 100  20  10  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

12/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
132 PM CST MON MAR 7 2005

ALZ011>015-017>050-081300-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
132 PM CST MON MAR 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...(THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT).

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO
WEST ALABAMA THIS EVENING AND MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD. STRONG WINDS
ALOFT MAY EXTEND DOWN TO THE SURFACE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SQUALL
LINE...PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.  THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL BE WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 85. THE SQUALL LINE SHOULD BE EAST OF AREA BY 300
AM CST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY).

ON TUESDAY...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.  A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR TUESDAY.

...SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
MAY BE NECESSARY THIS EVENING.