Severe Thunderstorm Warning 338, NWS Birmingham, AL

000 
WWUS54 KBMX 200057
SVSBMX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
757 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

ALC081-200115-
/O.CON.KBMX.SV.W.0338.000000T0000Z-050520T0115Z/
LEE AL-
757 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 815 PM CDT FOR
CENTRAL LEE COUNTY...

AT 755 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF SALEM...AND JUST EAST
OF OPELIKA...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS
OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3271 8538 3257 8535 3260 8511 3273 8516

$$

KSL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
247 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDEL ON THE UPCOMING
SYSTEM(S)...THUS ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS THE AREA AT
THE MOMENT AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S.
LIKEWISE...CUMULUS FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND.  THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN GREATER INSTABILITY AND THUS ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT.  THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
PLACES MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TOMORROW. FEEL THIS SOLUTION IS A GOOD ONE CONSIDERING THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY...BUT LACK OF ANY REAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.  TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT COULD END UP BEING THE 1 TO 2 INCH RAIN WE HAVE
BEEN WAITING FOR OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.  EXPECTING ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AS WELL...SO KEPT TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE RATHER QUICKLY FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN A NICE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
STATE ON MONDAY..RESULTING IN A FEW SHOWERS.  MOISTURE WILL BE
QUESTIONABLE ON MONDAY...SO AT THIS TIME...NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SUMMER-TYPE NON-SEVERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...DIMINISHING IN BOTH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.  AN EXTREMELY
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE.  AFTER THIS SYSTEM...A STRONG THERMAL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHWEST RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  NORMALLY...THIS PATTERN KEEPS
CONDITIONS DRY IN CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A ROGUE
MCS A FEW TIMES OF YEAR.  NOTHING REALLY POINTING TO THIS LATTER
SOLUTION AT THE MOMENT.  AFTER A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY...CONDITIONS LOOK DRY WITH GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     85  66  77  62 /  50  70  70  20
ANNISTON    85  66  77  62 /  50  70  70  40
BIRMINGHAM  86  67  78  62 /  30  70  70  30
TUSCALOOSA  88  67  81  62 /  20  50  70  20
CALERA      87  66  79  62 /  30  60  70  40
AUBURN      86  66  80  64 /  30  50  70  60
MONTGOMERY  89  67  83  65 /  20  50  70  60
TROY        88  65  83  65 /  20  50  70  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

JDS/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
140 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

ALZ011>015-017>050-201230-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
140 PM CDT THU MAY 19 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...(THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT).

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 3 PM CDT TODAY NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 20.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...PEA SIZE HAIL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS EXPECTED WITH
THE STRONG STORMS.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH ALABAMA FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON.  THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...
WINDS...AND LIFT WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY STRONG
TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON.

AT THIS TIME...WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TODAY OR TONIGHT.  HOWEVER...IF MOISTURE...INSTABILITY...OR WINDS
INCREASE MORE THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY).

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF AN
ONEONTA TO ANNISTON LINE BETWEEN NOON CDT FRIDAY THROUGH 12 AM CDT
ON SATURDAY.

DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL
ALABAMA ON FRIDAY.  ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD LIFT...
AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL SUPPORT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...
PARTICULARLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 WHERE HEATING AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE GREATEST.  HOWEVER...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE GULF COAST AND END
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA AFTER
12 AM CDT SATURDAY.

BEYOND FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 6 PM CDT TODAY AND 12 AM CDT SATURDAY.

KH/99