Severe Thunderstorm Warning 219, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
430 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2005

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

HELLO WEATHER FANS. LOOKING LIKE TODAY IS GOING TO BE ONE OF THOSE
DAYS. ALREADY SEEING SOME ISOLATED STORMS FIRING ON OLD BOUNDARIES
THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THAT TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT WITH THE DISORGANIZED STORMS.
BY EARLY AFTERNOON...EVERY KIND OF SEVERE WX INDICES THAT YOU WOULD
WANT WILL BE IN PLACE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SQUALL LINE THAT
WILL TO BEGIN TO CROSS THE CWA MID TO LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WERE
LOOKING FOR LONG LIVED BOW-ECHOS (DERECHO?) ON THE NORTH END OF THE
CWA...WHILE THE SOUTH END SHOULD SEE NOT AS LONG LIVED BOWS...HAIL
AND LITTLE MORE OF A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. OF COURSE
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE WITHIN THE CWA WITH THIS
LINE.

THANKS TO HUN...FFC...AND MOB FOR COORDINATION THIS MORNING.

JONES/90

(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE TIME TO FLIP THE SWITCH FROM COOL TO HEAT ON
THE THERMOSTAT AGAIN.  AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND NORTHERLY FLOW
INTENSIFIES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY.  ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE
WARM...BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL KEEP IT FEELING A BIT COOLER. WITH
CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE ONE
OF THOSE WIND BURN/SUN BURN DAYS AT THE BALL FIELD. OTHERWISE...
THE MAIN ISSUE IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES...
DIPPING INTO THE 30S BOTH NIGHTS.  NOT TOO CONCERNED SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH WINDS STAYING UP...BUT SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS SHOULD GO
LIGHT TO CALM...AND I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HEAR OF ISOLATED
FROST IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF
BIRMINGHAM.  STAYED A TOUCH BELOW GUIDANCE ON HIGHS...AND ABOVE
GUIDANCE ON THE LOWS...FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  STILL IN THE PROCESS OF
WORKING OUT THE DETAILS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT GENERALLY
SPEAKING...LOOKS LAST NIGHT/S ZONAL FLOW COULD BE WRINKLED A BIT
BY A SPOKE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW.  FORECAST WILL NEED
SOME ADJUSTMENT...BUT MAIN FOCUS THIS PACKAGE IS IN THE SHORT TERM.

DE BLOCK/81

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     79  51  60  35 /  70  90  20   0
ANNISTON    80  53  61  35 /  60  90  20   0
BIRMINGHAM  80  51  60  35 /  80  80  20   0
TUSCALOOSA  81  52  63  37 /  80  70  10   0
CALERA      81  52  61  36 /  80  80  10   0
AUBURN      81  59  64  39 /  40  90  10   0
MONTGOMERY  82  58  66  39 /  40  90  10   0
TROY        82  60  67  37 /  40  90  10   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
124 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

ALZ011>015-017>050-221200-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
124 PM CDT THU APR 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...(THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT).

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.  A FEW OF THE
STORMS MAY BECOME BRIEFLY SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY).

AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS...ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WILL
BRING A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TO CENTRAL ALABAMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED CENTRAL
ALABAMA UNDER A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS FOR FRIDAY.  THE
EXACT TIMING OF THE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CERTAIN...BUT THE HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH 9 PM FRIDAY
EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ON FRIDAY.