Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
330 PM CST WED MAR 30 2005

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST STATES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AND
PUSH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA.  SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATE TONIGHT OVER WEST ALABAMA AND SPREAD EASTWARD.  VORT MAX WILL
PASS OVER ALABAMA ON THURSDAY AND PUSH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO GEORGIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY EVENING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE WEST
OF ALABAMA.  CONVECTION WILL SPREAD BACK INTO ALABAMA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA.  UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, AND
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN IN TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING RAPIDLY OVER THE AREA WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.
JACKSON 18Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG CAP AT 850MB WHICH
IS SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.  STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS
FORECASTING CAP TO ERODE LATER TONIGHT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SPREADING
INTO WESTERN ALABAMA AFTER MIDNIGHT.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE
ETA SHOW CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BY 12Z THURSDAY.  WIND
PROFILES ALSO INDICATE SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND CONVECTION SHOULD DECREASE AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.  PW VALUES WILL DECREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE MID LEVELS.  THE AIRMASS
WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING UNTIL DEEPER
MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.  DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON FRIDAY.  PW VALUES APPROACH
1.5 INCHES EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, AND THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.  SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL EXIT ALABAMA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING AN END TO THE
CONVECTION.  GIVEN STRENGTH OF UPPER TROUGH, THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA FRIDAY EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
STARTING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.  SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD, AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH ALABAMA ON WEDNESDAY.  SYSTEM LOOKS STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     60  74  61  69 /  60  50  50  70
ANNISTON    60  74  61  70 /  60  60  50  80
BIRMINGHAM  63  74  63  69 /  60  50  70  60
TUSCALOOSA  63  75  64  70 /  60  50  70  60
CALERA      63  75  64  71 /  60  50  70  70
AUBURN      60  77  61  74 /  50  70  50  80
MONTGOMERY  63  77  64  76 /  60  60  50  80
TROY        60  77  64  77 /  40  70  50  80

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

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