Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
948 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005

.UPDATE...

THE MAIN REASON FOR THE UPDATE IS FOR TORNADO WATCH 97 FOR THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

AT 15Z MSAS ANALYZED THE SURFACE LOW AROUND TUSCALOOSA.  THE COLD
FRONT EXTENDED WESTWARD AND IT WAS EAST OF MERIDIAN AND WEST
OF MOBILE.  THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TODAY.

THE WARM FRONT IS SOMEWHERE AROUND CALERA TO NORTH OF ALEX CITY.
THIS PUTS THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA IN THE DANGEROUS WARM
SECTOR.  STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FIRE IN THE WARM AREA AND EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THE BEST GUESS WOULD BE FOR THE WARM SECTOR TO LIFT NORTHWARD
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD.  THIS WILL MOVE THE SEVERE
THREAT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY.
&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 5 PM FOR LEE...MACON...RUSSELL...BULLOCK...
MONTGOMERY...LOWNDES...PIKE...AND BARBOUR

&&

80/80

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
733 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005

ALZ011>015-017>050-281333-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
733 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT).

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEARLY ALL
OF CENTRAL ALABAMA TODAY.

TODAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA.  BY LATE MORNING...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO
CLEAR AND THE AIR SHOULD DESTABILIZE QUICKLY ALLOWING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.

THE SPECIFIC THREAT WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK WILL VARY NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST.  THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
20 AND 59 WILL BE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND ISOLATED TORNADOES,
AS THE AIR WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE AND SHEAR WILL BE GREATER.  THE RISK
OF TORNADOES MAY INCREASE WITH ANY SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THIS AREA.  ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS, THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY).

BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY...WHICH SOME MAY BE
STRONG ON FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY.

KH/JDD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
704 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 AM     FLASH FLOOD      MONTGOMERY              32.35N 86.28W
03/27/2005                   MONTGOMERY         AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LAMAR ROAD IS CLOSED AND FLOODING IS OCCURRING UP TO CAR
            DOORS.

&&

KH/99

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
828 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005

ALZ050-271603-
828 AM CST SUN MAR 27 2005

THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES HAVE BEEN CLEARED FROM TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 96...

BARBOUR

NO COUNTIES REMAIN IN THIS WATCH.