Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS Birmingham, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
400 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

.DISCUSSION...
HEAVY DOWNPOURS OCCURRED AS EXPECTED YESTERDAY...THEY JUST TRAINED A
BIT MORE....PRODUCING SCATTERED 4 TO 6 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. SEVERAL REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING AND ASSOCIATED
DAMAGE. SEE THE LOCAL STORM REPORT SUMMARY (LSRBMX).

REMNANT CIRCULATION OF DENNIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY HAS CERTAINLY LOST
QUITE A BIT COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY. GFS/NAM/NGM/UKMET/CAN
GLOB ALL HAVE GENERAL CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN EVOLUTION. DEEP UPPER LOW PUSHES OUT INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...RETROGRADING THE WEAKNESS (TROUGH) BACK
WESTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS
BY SUNDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS INCREASE INTO THE 592-594 RANGE. THE
ATMOSPHERE SOUTHEAST OF THE WEAKNESS/TROUGH/UPPER SHEAR AXIS WILL
REMAIN QUITE TROPICAL IN NATURE...PRECIP WATER VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES...SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 70S...THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY AND CONTENT WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
PREVIOUS PACKAGES...WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE STARTING
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES A TAD SATURDAY
AREAWIDE FROM CURRENT FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL SHOW A BIT MORE
UNIFORM FLAVOR AND GENERALLY RUN 88 TO 95. IT LOOKS HOT AND HUMID FOR
CENTRAL ALABAMIANS.

BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS TIME OUT IS THE RAIN COVERAGE
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH THE TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TODAY. SUBTLE COOL
POOL ALOFT...NUMEROUS STORM-SCALE BOUNDARIES...INSTABILITY...SUBTLE
SHORT WAVE ENERGY REMNANTS OF MID LEVEL DENNIS...RELATIVE WIND
SPEED DIFFERENCES IN SEVERAL LEVELS...AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
AREAS WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE THEIR PARTS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION AGAIN TODAY. HARD TO ARGUE WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE THAT
SPIT OUT 100 IN SEVERAL PLACES. PIN-POINTING THE EXACT LOCATION OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN TODAY WILL DEPEND ON THE SMALL SCALE INTERACTIONS
THAT DEVELOP AND PROPAGATE. SAME STORY AS PREVIOUS DAYS...TOOK A
MIX OF GFS/NAM/PERSISTENCE FOR TEMPS AND POPS.

HURRICANE EMILY WATCH...EMILY HAS REACHED CATEGORY 4 STRENGTH
WITH WINDS OF 135 MPH. EMILY WAS LOCATED NORTH NORTHEAST OF
CURACAO EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WHICH WILL STEAR EMILY ON A CONTINUED
WEST NORTHWEST PATH THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 3 OR 4 DAYS. EMILY
WILL PASS IN THE VICINITY OF JAMAICA, THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND
COZUMEL BY LATE SUNDAY. CURRENT TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER FORECAST
HAS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF PREVIOUS FORECASTS. AT THIS TIME EMILY
SHOULD REMAIN A NON-PLAYER IN ALABAMA WEATHER...BUT INTERESTS ALONG
THE TEXAS COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY. SEE THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER PRODUCTS FOR SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     86  71  88  71 /  90  60  50  50
ANNISTON    87  71  89  71 /  90  60  50  50
BIRMINGHAM  87  73  89  73 /  90  60  50  50
TUSCALOOSA  89  72  90  72 /  90  50  50  30
CALERA      87  72  90  72 /  90  60  50  50
AUBURN      86  71  90  71 /  90  60  60  50
MONTGOMERY  88  73  90  73 /  90  60  60  50
TROY        89  73  90  73 /  90  50  60  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

75/LINHARES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
600 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

ALZ011>015-017>050-161130-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
600 AM CDT FRI JUL 15 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT).

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE STILL VERY TROPICAL...LOCALIZED HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. SOME SPOTS WILL RECEIVE TWO TO THREE INCHES
OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN
YESTERDAY ARE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLOODING
TODAY.

WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL:
BIRMINGHAM...LOW.
MONTGOMERY...LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY).

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LINHARES