Severe Thunderstorm Warning 380, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
250 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
A QUASI STATIONARY 500 MB LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. EAST OF THE LOW...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
WILL SPEED EAST IN LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEAST FROM A LOW PRESSURE CENTER IN THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS. THIS FEATURE MAY GENERATE A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH HAIL THAT MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OUT OF THE CWA SATURDAY EVENING AS
THE WESTERN UPPER LOW CROSSES THE ROCKIES.  THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CHANGE TO SHOWERS.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD COMMENCE SUNDAY EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
PASSES. THE GFS THEN SHOWS DRY ZONAL FLOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW NOW FORECAST TO BE NEARLY ZONAL TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH THE NEW 12Z GFS DEVELOPING A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE OVER WESTERN MONTANA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE NORTH CENTRAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW. WITH CURRENT
12Z GFS CHANCE OF PCPN LOOKS BETTER THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BUT
CONSIDERING THE CHANGE FROM EARLIER RUNS WILL WAIT TO SEE IF LATER
RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH CHANGE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

LM/TSW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
407 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2005

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-170915-
DIVIDE-BURKE-RENVILLE-BOTTINEAU-ROLETTE-WILLIAMS-MOUNTRAIL-WARD-
MCHENRY-PIERCE-MCKENZIE-DUNN-MERCER-OLIVER-MCLEAN-SHERIDAN-WELLS-
FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-BILLINGS-STARK-MORTON-BURLEIGH-KIDDER-
STUTSMAN-SLOPE-HETTINGER-GRANT-BOWMAN-ADAMS-SIOUX-EMMONS-LOGAN-
LA MOURE-MCINTOSH-DICKEY-
407 AM CDT FRI SEP 16 2005 /307 AM MDT FRI SEP 16 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

NH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
739 PM CDT FRI SEP 16 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0737 PM     HAIL             GARRISON                47.65N 101.42W
09/16/2005  0.75 INCH        MCLEAN             ND   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            STARTED AT 730 CDT AND WAS STILL FALLING

&&

JC