Severe Thunderstorm Warning 273, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
410 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MONTANA/WYOMING IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST
TO THE WESTERN BORDERS OF THE DAKOTAS BY 18Z...A SLOWER PROGRESSION
THAN YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. THUS WILL MAKE A CHANGE IN THE
FORECASTED WINDS TODAY AS WELL AS INTRODUCE PRECIP CHANCES TO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION...WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. CAPE VALUES
INCREASE TO 500 TO OVER 1000 THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WHOLE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE MENTIONED POSSIBLY SEVERE WORDING AS PER
PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT NOW INCLUDES THE WESTERN COUNTIES AS WELL.
THE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS THIS EVENING
AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
WITH STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND KEEPING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S. THIS LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE WESTERN
BORDER OF THE DAKOTAS AFTER MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVING INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY. PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CAPE TO WORK WITH...AND EXPECT A LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
SEVERE...FOR THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA. THE TIMING OF THE MOVEMENT OF
THE TROUGH IS KEY FOR TIMING OF PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND
SURFACE MOISTURE ADVECTION.  WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF TSTMS IN THE
FORECAST BEGINNING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.  THE
TROUGH DEEPENS AS IT MOVES EAST MONDAY NIGHT AS STRONG RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST...PUTTING ND IN A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH TEMPS GENERALLY AT OR BELOW NORMAL. LITTLE CHANGE TO
ONGOING FORECAST AND ADDED A DRY AND SEASONABLE DAY 8 TO PACKAGE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

VINING/WETZEL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
508 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-221006-
ADAMS-BILLINGS-BOTTINEAU-BOWMAN-BURKE-BURLEIGH-DICKEY-DIVIDE-DUNN-
EMMONS-FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-GRANT-HETTINGER-KIDDER-LA MOURE-LOGAN-
MCHENRY-MCINTOSH-MCKENZIE-MCLEAN-MERCER-MORTON-MOUNTRAIL-OLIVER-
PIERCE-RENVILLE-ROLETTE-SHERIDAN-SIOUX-SLOPE-STARK-STUTSMAN-WARD-
WELLS-WILLIAMS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILLISTON...MINOT...JAMESTOWN...
DICKINSON...CROSBY...BOWMAN...BOTTINEAU...BISMARCK...MANDAN...
WATFORD CITY...WASHBURN...STANLEY...RUGBY...MOTT...MEDORA...LINTON...
HETTINGER...HARVEY...ELLENDALE...CARRINGTON...BEULAH...BELCOURT...
BEACH AND ASHLEY
508 AM CDT THU JUL 21 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE... FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

VINING