Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2005

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 263, NWS Bismarck, ND

July 16, 2005Ward County, North Dakota

NWS Bismarck, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 16, 2005, 9:27 PM CDT for Ward County, North Dakota. It was in force for 66 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 16, 2005, 9:27 PM CDT (02:27 UTC)
Expired: Jul 16, 2005, 10:33 PM CDT
In force: 66 min
Issued by: NWS Bismarck, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Ward County, ND

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 16, 7:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	4 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 2.5 hours before the alert went out and 184 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2375 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -104 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2709 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 157 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 348 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 7.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KBIS 170227
SVRBIS
NDC101-170330-
/O.NEW.KBIS.SV.W.0263.050717T0227Z-050717T0330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
927 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CENTRAL WARD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA

* UNTIL 1030 PM CDT

* AT 921 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THIS
  STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DES LACS...OR ABOUT 17 MILES WEST OF
  MINOT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BURLINGTON AND FOXHOLM AROUND 935 PM CDT
  MINOT AFB AROUND 950 PM CDT
  WOLSETH AROUND 1000 PM CDT

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 4838 10107 4837 10103 4810 10157 4810 10161
      4838 10185 4840 10185 4841 10183 4846 10171
      4846 10107

$$

JC

2 follow-up statements

000 
WWUS53 KBIS 170255
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
955 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

NDC101-170330-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0263.000000T0000Z-050717T0330Z/
WARD ND-
955 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT FOR
CENTRAL WARD COUNTY...

AT 953 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR BURLINGTON...OR ABOUT 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF MINOT...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MINOT AFB AROUND 1005 PM CDT
  WOLSETH AROUND 1015 PM CDT

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4838 10107 4837 10103 4810 10157 4810 10161
      4838 10185 4840 10185 4841 10183 4846 10171
      4846 10107

$$

JC

000 
WWUS53 KBIS 170333
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1033 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

NDC101-170343-
/O.EXP.KBIS.SV.W.0263.000000T0000Z-050717T0330Z/
WARD ND-
1033 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL WARD COUNTY EXPIRED AT
1030 PM CDT...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND NO LONGER POSES
A SIGNIFICANT THREAT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
SATURDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4838 10107 4837 10103 4810 10157 4810 10161
      4838 10185 4840 10185 4841 10183 4846 10171
      4846 10107

$$

JC

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Bismarck, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 16, 3:10 PM CDT, 6 hours 17 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 16, 3:10 PM CDT, 6 hours 17 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
310 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

FORECAST CHALLENGE OF CONCERN WAS THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED LOW PRESSURE FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO
ERN MONTANA WITH AN E-W WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER. AREA OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA HAS KEPT SURFACE HEATING DOWN WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
80S NORTH TO THE LOWER 90S FAR SOUTH. LAST LOOK AT THE AREA 88DS
SHOWED SOME LEFTOVER ELEVATED THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF SCNTRL
NORTH DAKOTA. SOUTHEAST WINDS FROM 15 TO 25 MPH WERE NOTED ACROSS
MOST OF THE REGION.

MODELS TODAY WERE VERY SIMILAR IN BRINGING A STRONG SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STILL HAVE A SLIGHT RISK
OUT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN THOUGH THE HEATING HAS
BEEN KEPT IN CHECK TODAY I STILL FEEL THAT THE THREAT FOR SOME
SEVERE STORMS IS STILL A REAL POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
MODEL CAPES WERE AROUND 3,000 J/KG WITH A PROGGED UPPER LEVEL
50KT JET FORECAST TO COME INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE HIGH
DEW POINTS FAVOR THE THREAT FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN SPOTS
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL MENTION IT IN THE ZONES.
FEEL THAT THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL FORM ALONG AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN INTO THE 70S
ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN PLEASANT INTO MONDAY AND THEN START TO WARM
BACK IN THE 80S ON TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE
PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SATURDAY LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN WEAK UNCERTAIN SURFACE  FEATURES. CONSEQUENTLY CHANCE OF PRECIP
WILL REMAIN LOW. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY GFS MOVES A TROUGH INTO THE
PLAINS DRIVING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS A
CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN. FOR NOW WILL STAY WITH PREVIOUS
FORECAST KEEPING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS OUR EASTERN MOST
COUNTIES.  OVERALL...TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE AROUND
NORMAL.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY FAR SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

JENSEN/TSW

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 16, 5:35 AM CDT, 15 hours 52 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
535 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-171033-
BILLINGS-DIVIDE-DUNN-GOLDEN VALLEY-MCKENZIE-STARK-WILLIAMS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILLISTON...DICKINSON...CROSBY...
WATFORD CITY...MEDORA AND BEACH
535 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITIES...AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S TO AROUND
100...AND WIND SWITCHES. SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME WEST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH AT
15 TO 25 MPH THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

NDZ040-041-043-044-171033-
ADAMS-BOWMAN-HETTINGER-SLOPE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWMAN...MOTT AND HETTINGER
535 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOT
A.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITIES...AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S TO AROUND
100...AND WIND SWITCHES. SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME WEST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH AT
15 TO 25 MPH THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY MORNING IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT NORTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30 TO 35 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

NDZ002>005-010>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-171033-
BOTTINEAU-BURKE-BURLEIGH-DICKEY-EMMONS-FOSTER-GRANT-KIDDER-LA MOURE-
LOGAN-MCHENRY-MCINTOSH-MCLEAN-MERCER-MORTON-MOUNTRAIL-OLIVER-PIERCE-
RENVILLE-ROLETTE-SHERIDAN-SIOUX-STUTSMAN-WARD-WELLS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MINOT...JAMESTOWN...BOTTINEAU...BISMARCK...
MANDAN...WASHBURN...STANLEY...RUGBY...LINTON...HARVEY...ELLENDALE...
CARRINGTON...BEULAH...BELCOURT AND ASHLEY
535 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOT
A.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

VINING

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 16, 8:17 PM CDT, 1 hour 10 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
817 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     HAIL             8 S STANLEY             48.20N 102.39W
07/16/2005  1.00 INCH        MOUNTRAIL          ND   PUBLIC

            HAILED STARTED AT 755 PM CDT AND WAS STILL OCCURRING AT
            805 PM CDT

&&

JC

Local storm report, Jul 16, 9:06 PM CDT, 21 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
906 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HAIL             22 WNW FAIRFIELD        47.30N 103.65W
07/16/2005  0.88 INCH        BILLINGS           ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TWH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Bismarck, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 16, 7:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dunn	51 min
Jul 16, 7:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McKenzie, Mountrail	54 min
Jul 16, 8:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McKenzie	56 min
Jul 16, 8:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Golden Valley	37 min
Jul 16, 8:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McLean	51 min
Jul 16, 8:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Ward	59 min
Jul 16, 8:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Billings	39 min
Jul 16, 8:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Mountrail	43 min
Jul 16, 8:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Dunn, McKenzie	53 min
Jul 16, 9:17 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Billings	28 min
Jul 16, 9:23 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Mountrail	49 min
Jul 16, 9:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McHenry	60 min
Jul 16, 9:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Billings, Golden Valley, McKenzie	64 min
Jul 16, 10:27 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	BIS	McHenry	31 min
Jul 16, 10:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McKenzie, Williams	59 min
Jul 16, 10:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	McHenry	31 min
Jul 16, 10:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Rolette	34 min
Jul 16, 11:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BIS	Divide, Williams	61 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2005 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2005

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.