Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
400 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
MODELS INDICATE BUILDING MID LEVEL CAP OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND
EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING. ONGOING WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IN
MONTANA MOVING EAST - EXPECT THIS IS HIGH BASED AND WILL WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES EAST. WILL NOT PUT IN PRECIP THIS MORNING.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND IS EXPECTED
TO ENTER THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE AROUND NOON TODAY AND
PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST ALMOST INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THAT
SAID...FIRST CONCERN IS FIRE WEATHER. EXPECTING SOUTH WINDS WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 IN THE WEST WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...THEN WINDS SWITCH TO THE
WEST AND TEMPS RISE INTO THE 90S AND AROUND 100 WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES DROPPING TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT...THEN WINDS BECOME
NORTHWEST AROUND 20 MPH DURING THE EVENING. ALSO EXPECTING A CHANCE
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WESTERN
COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND BEHIND THE TROUGH AND NORTH CENTRAL SHERE
THE CAP MAY BE JUST WEAK ENOUGH TO HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. KEPT
CHANCES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE TROUGH ADVANCES AND AS THE
CAP BREAKS DOWN...MENTIONING SEVERE DURING THE EVENING.

NEXT CONCERN IS WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE H850 WINDS ARE NORTHWEST AROUND 50 KNOTS AT 12Z
SUNDAY. WILL ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THE FAR SOUTHWEST.

STILL A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY WITH H500 TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH.

BY MONDAY...COOLER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S
AND LOWS DOWN IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN WEAK UNCERTAIN SURFACE
FEATURES. MODELS SHOW A FAST MOVING SHALLOW SHORT WAVE PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE ENERGY WILL BE
IN CANADA.  WILL KEEP THE BIS CWA DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WIND ADVISORY FAR SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

VINING/LM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
535 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-171033-
BILLINGS-DIVIDE-DUNN-GOLDEN VALLEY-MCKENZIE-STARK-WILLIAMS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILLISTON...DICKINSON...CROSBY...
WATFORD CITY...MEDORA AND BEACH
535 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITIES...AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S TO AROUND
100...AND WIND SWITCHES. SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME WEST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH AT
15 TO 25 MPH THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

NDZ040-041-043-044-171033-
ADAMS-BOWMAN-HETTINGER-SLOPE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWMAN...MOTT AND HETTINGER
535 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOT
A.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR LOW HUMIDITIES...AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 90S TO AROUND
100...AND WIND SWITCHES. SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME WEST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTH AT
15 TO 25 MPH THIS EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.

AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY MORNING IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT NORTH WINDS TO INCREASE TO 30 TO 35 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

NDZ002>005-010>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051-171033-
BOTTINEAU-BURKE-BURLEIGH-DICKEY-EMMONS-FOSTER-GRANT-KIDDER-LA MOURE-
LOGAN-MCHENRY-MCINTOSH-MCLEAN-MERCER-MORTON-MOUNTRAIL-OLIVER-PIERCE-
RENVILLE-ROLETTE-SHERIDAN-SIOUX-STUTSMAN-WARD-WELLS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MINOT...JAMESTOWN...BOTTINEAU...BISMARCK...
MANDAN...WASHBURN...STANLEY...RUGBY...LINTON...HARVEY...ELLENDALE...
CARRINGTON...BEULAH...BELCOURT AND ASHLEY
535 AM CDT SAT JUL 16 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOT
A.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

VINING

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