Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Bismarck, ND

000 
WWUS53 KBIS 080206
SVSBIS

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
906 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2005

NDC025-057-080215-
/O.CON.KBIS.SV.W.0200.000000T0000Z-050708T0215Z/
MERCER ND-DUNN ND-
806 PM MDT THU JUL 7 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 815 PM MDT FOR EAST
CENTRAL DUNN AND NORTHWESTERN MERCER COUNTIES...

AT 804 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14
MILES NORTH OF ZAP TO DODGE...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 58 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MINOT TO 36 MILES NORTHEAST OF DICKINSON...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM MDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4755 10217 4744 10241 4718 10248 4725 10187
      4752 10158 4750 10189

$$

HEINERT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
230 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG COLD FRONT THEN MOVE EAST AS MOD
LEVEL SHORTWAVE/SPEEDMAX MOVES INTO THE REGION. SUFFICIENT CAPE AND
MID LEVEL WINDS FOR LARGE MCS SYSTEM TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD THEN
SOUTHEAST INTO SCNTRL/SERN ND BY MORNING. WITH K INDEX ABOVE 35 WILL
KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAIN.

MEANWHILE...H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WILL RETREAT AS HEAT BUILDS
INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS OLD/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL BECOME ACTIVE BY FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL LIKELY SEE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
H500 VORT ENERGY AND TAIL END OF UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST MONDAY
MORNING...SO KEPT MENTION OF MORNING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST. H500
RIDGE BUILDS QUITE STRONG FROM THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE H500 RIDGE
PUSHES NORTHWARD WELL INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES RESULTING IN A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE. THIS WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S AND 90S OVER NORTH DAKOTA...WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES TO THE
SOUTHWEST. SOME SURFACE AIR FLOW FROM CANADA SHOULD KEEP DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO MID 60S...RATHER THAN HIGHER DEWPOINT
(HIGHER HUMIDITY) AIR MOVING UP THE PLAINS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

WAA/JV

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
500 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2005

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-080959-
ADAMS-BILLINGS-BOTTINEAU-BOWMAN-BURKE-BURLEIGH-DICKEY-DIVIDE-DUNN-
EMMONS-FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-GRANT-HETTINGER-KIDDER-LA MOURE-LOGAN-
MCHENRY-MCINTOSH-MCKENZIE-MCLEAN-MERCER-MORTON-MOUNTRAIL-OLIVER-
PIERCE-RENVILLE-ROLETTE-SHERIDAN-SIOUX-SLOPE-STARK-STUTSMAN-WARD-
WELLS-WILLIAMS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILLISTON...MINOT...JAMESTOWN...
DICKINSON...CROSBY...BOWMAN...BOTTINEAU...BISMARCK...MANDAN...
WATFORD CITY...WASHBURN...STANLEY...RUGBY...MOTT...MEDORA...LINTON...
HETTINGER...HARVEY...ELLENDALE...CARRINGTON...BEULAH...BELCOURT...
BEACH AND ASHLEY
500 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WARM TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL CAUSE DEEP INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK CAP.  PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE AN INCH
OR MORE WITH A K-INDEX OF AROUND 35 INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN.  A WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA PROVIDING A WEAK CONVERGENT ZONE...LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.