Severe Thunderstorm Warning 197, NWS Bismarck, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
338 PM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
MAIN PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME
CONVECTION CHANCES. OVERALL MODELS PRETTY SIMILAR ON PLACEMENT OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS FOR DETAILS.

CURRENTLY SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA WITH QUITE WARM AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WILL KEEP AND EYE ON
LATEST SAT AND RADAR AS WE DID HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRW THIS
AFTERNOON BUT NOTHING THIS EVENING AS OF YET. MAY THROW IN SOME
SMALL POPS.

WARMUP CONTINUES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES LIKELY
APPROACHING THE MID 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST. WE WILL BE UNSTABLE
EACH AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. PROBLEM IS THAT
WE WILL LIKELY BE CAPPED AS 579 THICKNESS LIFTS THROUGH THE CWA.
BEST BET FOR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WEST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND LINGERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE AND A SLIGHTLY WEAKENED CAP MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOMETHING
TO FIRE ACROSS THE NORTH AND RIDE AS BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW SOME
SHORTWAVE FLATTENING THE RIDGE.

BESIDES THE SMALL CONVECTION CHANCES IT LOOKS WARM AND HUMID WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. VERY LITTLE ADJUSTMENT MADE TO THE SHORT
TERM TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE. LONG RANGE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN WITH A SHORT WAVE
AND FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT. LEFT POPS AND WX GRIDS FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD ALONE. AFTERWARDS...ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THAT WOULD WARRANT MODIFYING POPS AT THIS TIME. WILL SEE A
SLIGHT COOLING TREND BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

TWH/NH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
508 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-061007-
ADAMS-BILLINGS-BOTTINEAU-BOWMAN-BURKE-BURLEIGH-DICKEY-DIVIDE-DUNN-
EMMONS-FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-GRANT-HETTINGER-KIDDER-LA MOURE-LOGAN-
MCHENRY-MCINTOSH-MCKENZIE-MCLEAN-MERCER-MORTON-MOUNTRAIL-OLIVER-
PIERCE-RENVILLE-ROLETTE-SHERIDAN-SIOUX-SLOPE-STARK-STUTSMAN-WARD-
WELLS-WILLIAMS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILLISTON...MINOT...JAMESTOWN...
DICKINSON...CROSBY...BOWMAN...BOTTINEAU...BISMARCK...MANDAN...
WATFORD CITY...WASHBURN...STANLEY...RUGBY...MOTT...MEDORA...LINTON...
HETTINGER...HARVEY...ELLENDALE...CARRINGTON...BEULAH...BELCOURT...
BEACH AND ASHLEY
508 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.