Flash Flood Warning 27, NWS Bismarck, ND

000
WGUS73 KBIS 110210
FFSBIS

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
906 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

NDC049-069-079-083-110530-
SHERIDAN ND-PIERCE ND-MCHENRY ND-ROLETTE ND-
906 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT FOR ROLETTE...
SOUTHEASTERN MCHENRY...PIERCE AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES...

AT 900 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH ACROSS THE WARNED AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RADAR 
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS 
ALREADY FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF PIERCE...ROLETTE AND SHERIDAN 
COUNTIES.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO BERWICK...
SILVA...THORNE...NANSON...WOLFORD...ST. JOHN...SHELL VALLEY...
RUGBY...ROLLA...ROLETTE...MYLO...BELCOURT...BARTON AND BALTA.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 4857 9952 4842 9964 4836 9988 4790 9987
      4787 10011 4737 10010 4735 10050 4746 10063
      4785 10058 4786 10063 4813 10063 4859 10010
      4896 9999 4897 9956

$$

RSL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
251 PM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MAIN CONCERN IS FOR TONIGHT. A STALLED WEAK FRONT BISECTS THE CWA
AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. GENERAL COOLING
ALOFT WILL BE AIDED BY A SHORT WAVE TO BREAK A MID LEVEL CAP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.  EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST AND
THEN SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL LATER THIS EVENING.  CAPES ARE
SIGNIFICANT AND SOME STORMS COULD HAVE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. ALSO...THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING QUITE SLOW TO THE EAST
TONIGHT...AND THERE MAY BE TRAINING OF STORMS AS THEY MOVE
NORTHEAST. SOME AREAS OF CENTRAL ND WERE DELUGED A FEW DAYS AGO
AND SOILS LIKELY REMAIN SATURATED.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.  THEN THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL REBOUND AND BRING A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
FEW CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY ON UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HAVE
ADDED LOW POPS FOR TIME PERIODS THAT LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP...BUT KEPT WEATHER MENTION OUT FOR NOW. GFS LONG AND DGEX NOW
BRING IN A SHORT WAVE INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS. PLACEMENT RIGHT NOW
IS WELL TO THE EAST AND WOULDT HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON WESTERN
AND CENTRAL ND WEATHER BESIDES A COOLING TREND.  12Z GFS80 HAS A
HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH AND BRINGS IT RIGHT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SO...WELL HOLD OFF ONCE AGAIN ON ANY MAJOR CHANGES UNTIL MODELS
BECOME BETTER AGREEABLE IN LATER RUNS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CENTRAL ND TONIGHT...

&&

LM/NH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
406 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051-110905-
ADAMS-BILLINGS-BOTTINEAU-BOWMAN-BURKE-BURLEIGH-DICKEY-DIVIDE-DUNN-
EMMONS-FOSTER-GOLDEN VALLEY-GRANT-HETTINGER-KIDDER-LA MOURE-LOGAN-
MCHENRY-MCINTOSH-MCKENZIE-MCLEAN-MERCER-MORTON-MOUNTRAIL-OLIVER-
PIERCE-RENVILLE-ROLETTE-SHERIDAN-SIOUX-SLOPE-STARK-STUTSMAN-WARD-
WELLS-WILLIAMS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILLISTON...MINOT...JAMESTOWN...
DICKINSON...CROSBY...BOWMAN...BOTTINEAU...BISMARCK...MANDAN...
WATFORD CITY...WASHBURN...STANLEY...RUGBY...MOTT...MEDORA...LINTON...
HETTINGER...HARVEY...ELLENDALE...CARRINGTON...BEULAH...BELCOURT...
BEACH AND ASHLEY
406 AM CDT SUN JUL 10 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL MANITOBA CANADA
THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
MANITOBA CANADA WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE
PRIMARY THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

RGT