Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
307 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005

.SHORT TERM...
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...AS FRONT SINKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS CWA AND 500
MB WAVE TRACKS ACROSS CWA...EXPECTING FRONT TO PICK UP SOME
STEAM...AND CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THROUGH ABOUT 00Z...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTH AS FRONT
MAKES ITS WAY OUT OF SRN ZONES AROUND MIDNIGHT.  STILL SOME CONCERN
FOR SEVERE STORMS AS DEEP LYR SHEAR INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO 500 MB
WAVE SWINGING INTO TROUGH AXIS.  ALSO PRESENCE OF UPPER LVL
DIVERGENCE GENERATED BY WEAKLY COUPLED JET STRUCTURE COULD ADD TO
ASCENT.  WILL THEREFORE KEEP THE CHC TSRA IN ALL CWA THRU EARLY
EVE...AND FAR SRN ZONES THRU 06Z.  THINGS WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY
BEHIND THE FRONT...AS T/TDS FALL BACK TO NEAR 60.

SAT-SAT NIGHT...A GREAT DAY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN VCNTY AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPR 50S. TEMPS GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF 80...THOUGH PERHAPS A TOUCH WARMER IN NE PA...WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 50S MOST LOCATIONS.

SUNDAY...RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST...UNDER 500 MB NW FLOW.
BOTH ETA/GFS SUGGESTING COMPACT WAVE MOVES THRU NW FLOW SOMEWEHRE IN
THE PA/NY AREA (06Z ETA WAS FURTHER NORTH THAN 12Z).  ETA IS FASTER
WITH THIS FEATURE AND BRINGS IT INTO CWA LATE IN THE DAY...WHILE GFS
HOLDS OFF UNTIL EVENING.  IT SEEMS PRUDENT AT THIS POINT TO
INTRODUCE CHC POPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  -CEMPA/LAM

&&

.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT - FRIDAY)...
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE GRIDS. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD IS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE MID-WEST BEGINS A
SLOW DRIFT EASTWARD MOVING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY IN THE
WEEK. BY MID AND LATE WEEK THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WITH THE START A
COUPLE SHORT WAVES CARVING A BROAD TROF FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
-JFC &&

.AVIATION (22/18Z - 23/18Z)...
VFR WITH MAINLY MVFR TSRA AND SHRA MOVING WITH COLD FRONT SWEEPING
ACROSS THE REGION. CLEARING TONIGHT WITH LOWERING DEWPOINTS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING VFR TO ALL BUT ELM WHERE WET GROUND AND CLEAR
SKIES SHOULD PRODUCE TEMPO SHALLOW BR AROUND SUNRISE. VFR AND FEW
FAIR WEATHER CU ON SATURDAY. - JFC
&&

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...NONE.
.PA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
337 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-230735-
BRADFORD PA-BROOME NY-CHEMUNG NY-CHENANGO NY-CORTLAND NY-DELAWARE NY-
LACKAWANNA PA-LUZERNE PA-MADISON NY-NORTHERN ONEIDA NY-
NORTHERN WAYNE PA-ONONDAGA NY-OTSEGO NY-PIKE PA-SCHUYLER NY-
SENECA NY-SOUTHERN CAYUGA NY-SOUTHERN ONEIDA NY-SOUTHERN WAYNE PA-
STEUBEN NY-SULLIVAN NY-SUSQUEHANNA PA-TIOGA NY-TOMPKINS NY-
WYOMING PA-YATES NY-
337 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION MAY BE
SEVERE ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND THE SOUTHERN
CATSKILLS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

RRM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
328 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005

NYZ018-036-037-222030-
MADISON NY-ONEIDA NY-ONONDAGA NY-
328 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 319 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
  WINDS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
  SYRACUSE TO OTISCO..AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  VESPER AT 335 PM EDT
  LENOX AND WAMPSVILLE AT 340 PM EDT
  ONEIDA AND AT 345 PM EDT
  SHERRILL AT 350 PM EDT
  VERNON AND KENWOOD AT 355 PM EDT
  WESTMORELAND AND PETERBORO AT 405 PM EDT

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

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