Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
930 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

.SYNOPSIS...CWA REMAINS UNDER SW FLOW AS MAIN WAVE THAT ONCE DENNIS
SLOWLY MERGES WITH 500 MB TROUGH DIVING DOWN FORM THE CANADIAN
PLAINS.  THIS COMBINED SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY - TUESDAY)...
FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT...SCT CONVECTION CONTINUES MAINLY NRN FINGER
LAKES TO THE TUG HILL. VERY HIGH DEWPOINTS(MID/UPR 70S) AND PW/S 2+
IN (2.3 INCHES ON KALB 00Z SOUNDING) WERE RIDING UP INTO THE TUG
HILL PLATEAU ON LL SW WINDS. THIS MOIST SW FLO HAS DVLPED
SLOW-MOVING TSTMS WHICH RESULTED IN FLASH FLOODING NRN ONEIDA CO.
CAPES PROBABLY WERE CLOSE TO 3000 J/KG OR MORE BASED ON MODIFIED
SOUNDINGS. FREEZING LEVEL WAS ABV 600 MB AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WERE
CLOSE TO 4KM. THIS SET UP IS CLASSIC FOR FLASH FLOODING.

WV IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS AN UPR WAVE AND ASSCTD JET STREAK LIFTG
THRU THE ERN GREAT LAKES IN ASSCTN WITH THE VERY OLD AND WORN OUT
REMNANTS OF DENNIS. THE LL AGEO RESPONSE TO THIS UPR JET WAS TO DVLP
A LL SW FLO UP THRU WRN NY TO NRN NY. WITH THE TERRAIN AS
SUCH...THIS FLO IS LOCALLY ENHANCED IN THESE AREAS AND HAS SUPPORTED
MORE LL MOIST CONV AND CONVECTION IN BGM/S WRN AND NRN CWA. THIS LLJ
FEATURE WILL PROPAGATE THRU LATER THIS EVE AND WEAKEN. THERE WAS
ALSO SOME SCT SHRA IN PA THAT WERE LIFTG NE AS WELL. GIVEN THE HI
DEWPOINTS AND SOME INSTAB...HAVE KEPT CHC POPS IN FOR MAINLY SHRA
AFTER THIS MAIN BATCH OF SCT CONVECTION HEADS TO NRN NY FOR THE
OVRNGT.
IT  WILL REMAIN HAZY OVRNGT SO ADDED HAZE TO THE GRIDS. NDFD OUT TO
CENTRAL SERVER. ZONES SOON. -NICOSIA

PRVS SHORT TERM DSCN...
THIS AFT-TONIGHT...MAIN 500 MB TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST...WITH WEAKER
WAVES OVER OH AND NJ.  WAVE IN OH SHOULD STAY OUR WEST THIS EVE...SO
ONCE AGAION EXPECTING JUST SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION LASTING
INTO THE EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING.  THERE IS A LITTLE MORE WIND
ALOFT THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH SOME WEAK SHEAR...WHICH WILL ACT TO
DEVELOP MORE DESCRETE CELLS WHICH WILL LAST LONGER...AS UPDRAFTS
HAVE SOME SUPPORT AND COULD PRODUCE GOOD RAINFALL RATES...HOWEVER
CELLS WILL BE MOVING...SO THIS WILL REDUCE THE THREAT OF ANY ONE
AREA SITTING UNDER ANY ONE CELL FOR A LONG TIME.  THE ONE THING TO
WATCH IS FOR ANY BACK-BUILDING THAT MAY OCCUR OVER COMPLEX TERRAIN.
ANY CELLS COULD LAST A LITTLE LONGER AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...BUT
MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN BEFORE MIDNIGHT.  FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...MOIST BL COULD STILL GENERATE SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY AROUND LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES...SO HAVE TO
CONTINUE THE CHC TSRA...WITH REDUCED POPS.

MONDAY...A 500 MB RIPPLE MOVES THRU THE SW FLOW...JUST S AND E OF LK
ONTARIO...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE CONVECTION A BIT...PARTICULARLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT EVEN WITHOUT THIS WAVE...AIR MASS IS
MOSIT ENOUGH THAT ANY BIT OF LL CONVERGENCE COULD PRODUCE A TSRA.
SHOULD SEE MORE SUN...CLOSER TO P/S THAN TODAY...ALSO WARMER MID-LVL
AIR WILL BE ADVECTED IN...SO EXPECT MAX TEMPS UPPER 80S TO 90 IN
MANY SPOTS.

MON NIGHT...MOST CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET...BUT ALSO
CANT RULE OUT A SHOWER POPPING UP OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...AS SFC TROUGH SWINGS N OF CWA...COOL FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED
ACROSS NY/PA...MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THE MODEL TREND HAS
BEEN FOR THE 500 MB TROUGH TO LIFT FURTHER N...THUS PROVIDING LESS
OF A PUSH FOR THE FRONT TO OVERCOME THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT...SO
EXPECT IT TO CROSS CWA A LITTLE LATER THAN MODEL RUNS...BUT ONLY BY
A FEW HOURS.  -CEMPA

&&

.LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT - SUNDAY)...
FRONT WILL MOVE S OF FORECAST AREA TUE NIGHT WITH A CLEARING TREND.
HI PRES WILL BE OVER THE AREA WED AND THU. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
BE SEASONABLY WARM BUT HUMIDITY WILL HAVE BACKED OFF A BIT MAKING IT
A LITTLE MORE COMFORTABLE. A WEAK FRONT WILL APRCH LATE THU INTO FRI
BRINGING ANOTHER CHC FOR SCT AFTN/EVE SHWRS AND TSTMS. HI PRES WITH
NW FLOW ALF FOR SAT AND SUN. -BMW

&&

.AVIATION (17/18Z - 18/18Z)...
SUBTROPICAL AIR MASS LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS BEGINS
TO PUSH IN FM THE W TOWARD MORNING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL
REDUCE VSBYS TO BETWEEN 3 AND 5 MILES TONIGHT AND AREAS OF MVFR
STRATUS WILL STILL BE AROUND UNTIL 14Z. -BMW

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...NONE.
.PA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
413 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-180812-
BRADFORD PA-BROOME NY-CHEMUNG NY-CHENANGO NY-CORTLAND NY-DELAWARE NY-
LACKAWANNA PA-LUZERNE PA-MADISON NY-NORTHERN ONEIDA NY-
NORTHERN WAYNE PA-ONONDAGA NY-OTSEGO NY-PIKE PA-SCHUYLER NY-
SENECA NY-SOUTHERN CAYUGA NY-SOUTHERN ONEIDA NY-SOUTHERN WAYNE PA-
STEUBEN NY-SULLIVAN NY-SUSQUEHANNA PA-TIOGA NY-TOMPKINS NY-
WYOMING PA-YATES NY-
413 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL FORM TODAY...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED LOCATIONS
COULD HAVE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN CAUSING FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT WILL BE LESSENED BUT STILL POSSIBLE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE ON TUESDAY DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
FORMAL SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...RAINFALL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL IN THEIR REPORTS
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
822 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BOONVILLE               43.48N 75.33W
07/17/2005                   ONEIDA             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MILL CREEK IN THE TOWN OF BOONVILLE WAS FLOODING THE
            BOONVILLE FAIRGROUNDS. ROUTE 294 WAS ALSO REPORTED TO BE
            FLOODED.

&&

DJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
935 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     FLASH FLOOD      BOONVILLE               43.48N 75.33W
07/17/2005                   ONEIDA             NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MILL CREEK IN THE TOWN OF BOONVILLE WAS FLOODING THE
            BOONVILLE FAIRGROUNDS. ROUTE 294 WAS ALSO REPORTED TO BE
            FLOODED AND CLOSED IN BOONVILLE AND AVA. WATER WAS UP TO
            THE TOPS OF CARS IN THESE AREAS. MANY BASEMENTS WERE
            FLOODED. SOME HOMES HAVE WATER TO THE FIRST FLOOR. A
            SPOTTER IN BOONVILLE REPORTED 3.65 INCHES OF RAIN FROM
            THIS STORM.

&&

DJN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
939 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

NYZ017-018-180230-
CAYUGA NY-ONONDAGA NY-
939 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 937 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS TO
  AROUND 40 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND VIVID LIGHTNING.  THIS STORM
  WAS LOCATED NEAR SKANEATELES..AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ELBRIDGE AND JORDAN AT 945 PM EDT
  MARCELLUS AT 950 PM EDT
  BENNETTS CORNERS AND MEMPHIS AT 955 PM EDT
  CAMILLUS AND WARNERS AT 1000 PM EDT
  AMBOY AND FAIRMOUNT AT 1005 PM EDT
  LAKELAND AND SOLVAY AT 1010 PM EDT
  LIVERPOOL AND SYRACUSE AT 1015 PM EDT
  WOODARD AND MATTYDALE AT 1020 PM EDT

MJ