Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
317 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

.SHORT TERM (TON - SAT)...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WL DIVE ACROSS ERN CANADA AND NRN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT WITH SFC COLD FRONT SAGGING SLOWLY INTO NEW YORK. SVRL
THUNDERSTORMS WL CONTINUE ACROSS THE VERY UNSTABLE NRN ZONES INTO THE
EVENING ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MEAN WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR DCRG
THRU THE AFTERNOON...SO THESE ARE PREDOMINANTLY HEAVY RAINERS WITH
FLASH FLOODING THE MAIN FOCUS. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND UL TROF PROMOTES
RIDGING OVERNIGHT...SO WITH LOSS OF HEATING XPCT TO SEE STORMS
WITHERING AFTER DARK. SFC FRONT FCST TO WASH OUT OVER CNY DURG
FRIDAY. THIS STILL MAY ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...BUT EXPECT TO
SEE A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE BNDRY OVER PA. OLD
REMNANTS OF DENNIS ARE PROGGED BY GFS/CAN RGL AND GLB TO EJECT SPOKES
OF ENERGY NORTHWARD FRI AFTN THRU SAT. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL HAVE BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA ON SATURDAY AS GFS HINTING AT
MCS ARRIVING IN THE MORNING. CAN GLB ALSO ON BOARD WITH WAVE MOVING
NEWD AND DECENT GENERATION OF QPF IN THE MODEL THRU 00Z SUN.

TEMPERATURES VARY LITTLE WITH MUGGY 60S-70 AT NIGHT AND AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 IN URBAN AREAS. -JAB
&&

.LONG TERM (SAT NITE - THURS)...
STRONG 500 MB TROF FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER ERN US/WRN ATLANTIC INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WEAK FLOW.  LL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
HIGH...AND TEMPS WILL RUN IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90.  THEREFORE WILL
KEEP THE CHC POPS THRU THIS PERIOD.  WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH PASSES
ACROSS NRN NY MID WEEK...WHICH WILL PULL WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THROUGH...BUT GFS INDICATES HEAT RETURNS LATE IN THE WEEK.  -CEMPA
&&

.AVIATION (14/18Z - 15/18Z)...
COPIOUS LL MOSITURE WILL KEEP VIS AT MVFR IN HZ INTO THIS EVE...AND
COULD DROP TO IFR OCCNLY LATE TONIGHT.  AT KICA/KSYR CIGS COULD DROP
TO MVFR AT TIMES IN TSRA AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE.
-CEMPA
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM FOR
NYZ009-015>018-036-037-044>046.
.PA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
431 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-150830-
BRADFORD PA-BROOME NY-CHEMUNG NY-CHENANGO NY-CORTLAND NY-DELAWARE NY-
LACKAWANNA PA-LUZERNE PA-MADISON NY-NORTHERN ONEIDA NY-
NORTHERN WAYNE PA-ONONDAGA NY-OTSEGO NY-PIKE PA-SCHUYLER NY-
SENECA NY-SOUTHERN CAYUGA NY-SOUTHERN ONEIDA NY-SOUTHERN WAYNE PA-
STEUBEN NY-SULLIVAN NY-SUSQUEHANNA PA-TIOGA NY-TOMPKINS NY-
WYOMING PA-YATES NY-
431 AM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
INTERSTATE 81 IN UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE RISK WOULD BE DUE TO DAMAGING
WINDS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT LARGE HAIL. THERE IS ALSO THE
POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED...BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ALMOST EVERY DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
FORMAL SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. RAINFALL SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO CALL IN THEIR REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
BINGHAMTON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
340 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

NYZ018-142045-
ONONDAGA NY-
340 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER EASTERN ONONDAGA
COUNTY...

* AT 337 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...STRONG GUSTY
  WINDS...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LYNDON
  THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MANLIUS AT 350 PM EDT
  KIRKVILLE AT 405 PM EDT
  ORAN AT 440 PM EDT

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
424 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

NYZ009-142115-
ONEIDA NY-
424 PM EDT THU JUL 14 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 420 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FORESTPORT..AND
  MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WOODGATE AT 430 PM EDT
  FORESTPORT AT 435 PM EDT

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>