Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
250 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

.SHORT TERM(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
SCTRD SHRA/FEW TSRA DEVLPG AHEAD OF MAIN UPR LVL SHRT WAVE WHICH WAS
SWINGING E FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES. THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING WIND SHEAR...ESP NRN/ERN NY AND FORCE THE COOL FRNT E
INTO NY AND NRN PA TONIGHT. THEREFORE...CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN
INTENSITY AND ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES E THRU THE ERN PART OF BGM/S FCST
AREA INTO THE EARLY EVE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SVR STORMS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS PRIMARY THREAT. WIND SHEAR WAS MARGINAL FOR
SVR IN SRN NY AND NRN PA WITH BETTER SHEAR FARTHER N AND E. SVR
WATCH BOX OUT FOR NRN/ERN CWA WHICH LOOKS GOOD GIVEN THAT THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO INTENSIFY TO SVR LEVELS AS THEY ASCEND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THESE AREAS. AFTER THIS BATCH OF CONVECTION
MOVES E...SCT ACVTY WAS REVELOPING IN ADVANCE OF THE ACTUAL SFC FRNT
IN WRN NY/WRN PA. THUS WILL KEEP SCT SHRA/TSRA IN FCST INTO EVENING
W AND S OF WATCH BOX AREA IN BGM CWA. SFC FRNT WILL PASS THRU SRN
AND ERN CWA LATER TONIGHT ON NW WINDS...SO CANNOT RULE OUT STRAY
SHRA OR TSRA WHEN THIS PASSES THRU SO WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN FOR
CATSKILLS/POCONOS UNTIL A BIT AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SKIES WILL CLR LATE TONIGHT AS FRNT AND COOLER TEMPS EDGE S...THINK
VALLEY FOG WILL DVLP LATE TONIGHT AS COOLER AIR WORKS IN ABV STILL
RATHER MOIST LL/S.

HIGH PRESSURE SFC THRU MID-TROP THEN WORKS OVER REGION FOR THE REST
OF SAT THRU SUNDAY. SOME SCT-BKN CU WILL DVLP ACRS NC NY IN ASSCTN
WITH COLDER 850 MB TEMPS ALOFT SAT. HIGHER DWPTS SUN WILL MAKE FOR
MORE CU THAN SAT.

NEW ZONES AND UPDATED GRIDS OUT SOON. - NICOSIA
&&
.LONG TERM (SUN NGT - FRI)...
LONG TERM GNRLY A TRANQUIL PD...WITH THE XCPTN OF A SHRT WV TUE AND
WED. PD STARTS WITH DRY WX WITH SFC HIPRES DRFTG OFF THE EAST CST
AND AN UPPER RDG IN PLACE. WEAK SHRT WV APRCHS ON TUE BRINGS
MOISTURE AND CHANCE OF PCPN. CHANCE OF RWS/TRWS WITH THE LWRD HGTS
AND WEAK SFC TROF AND COLD FNT. SYSTEM SHD BE CLR OF THE AREA BY THU
AND ONCE AGAIN WEAK RDGG AND DRIER AIR WORK INTO THE REGION. WITH
UPPER RDG BUILDING IN THE WEST AND A BROAD TROF IN THE EAST...TEMPS
SHD REMAIN SEASONABLE AND DO NOT XPCT A RETURN OF THE ABV NRML HEAT.
MORFORD
&&

.AVIATION (01/18Z - 02/18Z)...
TROF OVER THE REGION ATTM TRIGGERING SOME CONV AND WIDESPREAD CLDS.
XPCT CONDS TO REMAIN VFR THIS AFTN XCPT INVOF TRWS. CLRG SKIES THIS
EVENING SHD SETUP A CLASSIC VALLEY FOG SITUATION SO HAVE BROUGHT ELM
DOWN TO LIFR SHRTLY AFT MIDN. OTR THAN RISING VLY FOG SAT...XPCT
FINE VFR CONDS. MORFORD

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...SVR WATCH TIL 01Z NYZ009-036-037-045-046-056-057-062
.PA...NONE.
&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
408 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

NYZ009-037-012115-
ONEIDA NY-
408 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 404 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BLOSSVALE..AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LEE AT 415 PM EDT
  ROME AT 420 PM EDT
  STOKES CORNER AND DELTA LAKE AT 425 PM EDT
  WESTERNVILLE AND AVA AT 435 PM EDT
  NORTH WESTERN AND FRENCHVILLE AT 440 PM EDT
  STEUBEN AT 445 PM EDT
  TRENTON AND BARNEVELD AT 450 PM EDT
  BOONVILLE AND REMSEN AT 455 PM EDT

RRM

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