Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
245 PM EST SUN NOV 6 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - TUESDAY)...
VERY ACTIVE OVER THE NEAR TERM...WITH SQUALL LINE GETTING READY TO
ENTER OUR WESTERN ZONES AS OF THIS WRITING.  LINES OF
CONVECTION...SOME OF IT SEVERE...WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...ALONG AND AHEAD OF INCOMING COLD FRONT.

LATER TONIGHT...FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO MORE SYNOPTIC-SCALE GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN / WESTERN ZONES...AS THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF
GOOD ISALLOBARIC FORCING AFFECT THIS REGION.  AS A RESULT...WEVE
DECIDED TO HOIST A WIND ADVISORY OVERNIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FINGER LAKES REGION...THE MOHAWK VALLEY...AND THE SOUTHERN TUG
HILL.  ELSEWHERE...THINGS WILL DRY OUT OVERNIGHT...WITH FAIRLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS.

MONDAY...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE REGION.  OTHER THAN PERHAPS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO IN THE FAR NORTH...IT LOOKS DRY
WITH INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE.

BY TUESDAY...A WEAK COOL FRONT IS PROGGED TO SLIP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NY AND PA.  WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT LITTLE OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.  -MJ

&&

.LONG TERM (TUE NGT-SUN)...
FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE AND 12Z GFS THRU THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL TREND TWD RIDGING THRU THE PERIOD WITH BRIEF POST
FRONTAL TROFINESS AT THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
WELL WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MID WEEK, WHICH WILL
SPREAD A CHC FOR SHRA ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTS. LATEST GFS BUILDS LARGE SFC HIGH INTO THE
EAST WITH DRY WEATHER FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY. -JL

&&

.AVIATION (06/18Z - 07/18Z)...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THRU THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FROM MID AFTERNOON THRU EARLY
EVENING...ROUGHLY 20Z-00Z. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON UP TO 25
KTS WILL INCREASE AND MAY GUST TO 40KTS OR GREATER AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THRU. AFTER THE STORMS PASS, WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO GUST FROM THE WEST UP TO 35 KTS. THE WINDS WILL TAPER OFF SOME
DURING THE OVERNIGHT THRU MORNING, WITH RANGES OF 15-25KTS EXPECTED.
VFR CEILINGS THIS AFTN WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE DURING HEAVY RAIN WITH THE
STORMS. PERIODS OF BKN-OVC MVFR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE
IMPROVING TO SCT-BKN VFR EARLY MONDAY.  -JL

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EST FOR
STEUBEN...YATES...CHEMUNG...TIOGA...TOMPKINS...SCHUYLER...CAYUGA...
SENECA...CORTLAND...AND ONONDAGA COUNTIES.  ALSO A WIND ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FROM 9 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY...FOR
STEUBEN...YATES...SCHUYLER...TOMPKINS...SENECA...CAYUGA...ONONDAGA...
CORTLAND...MADISON...AND ONEIDA COUNTIES.
.PA...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST FOR BRADFORD COUNTY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
239 AM EST SUN NOV 6 2005

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-070745-
NORTHERN ONEIDA-YATES-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-ONONDAGA-STEUBEN-
SCHUYLER-CHEMUNG-TOMPKINS-MADISON-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-CORTLAND-
CHENANGO-OTSEGO-TIOGA-BROOME-DELAWARE-SULLIVAN-BRADFORD-
SUSQUEHANNA-NORTHERN WAYNE-WYOMING-LACKAWANNA-LUZERNE-PIKE-
SOUTHERN WAYNE-
239 AM EST SUN NOV 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW
YORK...SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PADAVONA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1030 AM EST SUN NOV 6 2005

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-062100-
BRADFORD-BROOME-CHEMUNG-CHENANGO-CORTLAND-DELAWARE-LACKAWANNA-
LUZERNE-MADISON-NORTHERN ONEIDA-NORTHERN WAYNE-ONONDAGA-OTSEGO-PIKE-
SCHUYLER-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
STEUBEN-SULLIVAN-SUSQUEHANNA-TIOGA-TOMPKINS-WYOMING-YATES-
1030 AM EST SUN NOV 6 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY AND PRECEDE IT. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE, WITH WIND
GUSTS OF GREATER THAN 50 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER BETWEEN 1 PM AND 3 PM. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM, THEN
ADVANCE INTO THE MOHAWK VALLEY, POCONOS, AND CATKSILLS AROUND SUNSET.

BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
WILL CONTINUE, WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY
OVER THE FINGER LAKES, MOHAWK VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN TUG HILL OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON MONDAY.

THE HEAVY RAINS OF OCTOBER, COMBINED WITH THE RECENT SNOW AND HIGH
WIND EVENTS, HAVE LIKELY WEAKENED THE ROOT SYSTEMS OF SOME TREES.
THIS WILL ADD TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF DOWNED TREES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS SITUATION.  PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR
YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE FOR LATER STATEMENTS.  YOU MAY ALSO
VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV.

PADAVONA / JUREWICZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
326 PM EST SUN NOV 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     HAIL             JASPER                  42.12N 77.50W
11/06/2005  0.75 INCH        STEUBEN            NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            ALSO IN CANISTEO

0322 PM     HAIL             BATH                    42.34N 77.32W
11/06/2005  0.75 INCH        STEUBEN            NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MJC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
345 PM EST SUN NOV 06 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BATH                    42.34N 77.32W
11/06/2005                   STEUBEN            NY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ADDISON                 42.11N 77.23W
11/06/2005                   STEUBEN            NY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN

&&

MJC