Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
155 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005

.SHORT TERM (TNGT - SUN)...

AN UNSETTLED PTRN FOR THE NXT 48 HRS WITH S/WVS EMBEDDED IN THE SW
FLOW ALOFT, AND AN UNDULATING FNTL BNDRY (AND PSBL WAVES) ACRS THE
RGN. DYNAMICS ASSCD WITH THE S/WVS, COUPLED WITH LOW LVL
CONVERGENCE ASSCD WITH FNTL ZONE AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS, IN
COMBINATION WITH A MOIST AND FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS, SUGGESTS BOUTS
OF SCT TO NUMEROUS TSTMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WMFNT WILL PUSH THRU THIS EVNG, THEN THE CDFNT WILL DROP SWD ACRS
THE RGN TO VCNTY OF THE NY/PA BORDER BY SAT EVNG, BEFORE LIFTING NWD
ONCE AGAIN LATER SAT NGT INTO SUNDAY AFTN. STRONGER CDFNT IS THEN
FCST TO PUSH SEWD ACRS THE RGN LATE SUN NGT INTO MONDAY.

POTNL FOR SOME STRONG TO SVR STORMS THIS AFTN ACRS SRN NY AND NE PA
WHERE TEMPS HAVE RISEN TO NEAR 90. THIS AREA SOUTH OF THE STRONGER
UPR LVL WINDS, BUT 0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE NOT TOO SHABBY. UP N
APPEARS INSTABILTY WILL BE LACKING DUE TO XTNSV CLD CVR AND PCPN.
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF AN OUTFLOW BNDRY CAN PUSDH SWD INTO
THE SRN TIER TNGT, SUPPLYING A FOCUS FOR ADDNL CONVECTIVE DVLPMNT.
AGAIN, WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR PSBL TRAINING OF CELLS AND +RA. THE
MDLS DIFFER SOMEWHAT W/RESPECT TO LOCATIONS OF MORE CONCENTRATED
ACTIVITY. ATTM, PLAN ON GOING WITH MORE OF A BROADBRUSH APRCH FOR
PDS 2-4, AS NOCTURNAL STORMS A DISTINCT PSBLTY TNGT (SPCLY THIS
EVNG), AND AGAIN TMRW NGT AS THE WMFNT LIFTS NWD. BETTER CHCS FOR
STORMS TMRW MAY BE OVER THE SRN TIER AND NE PA AS OPPOSED TO NRN
ZONES, BUT AGAIN NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUN NIGHT - FRI)...
FLAT RDG REMAINS IN CNTRL OF OUR WX THRU THE XTNDD PD. WEAK WLY FLOW
OVER TOP OF THE RDG BRINGS A PARADE OF DFCLT TO TIMS SHRT WVS TO THE
FCST AREA. WITH THE WARM AND HUMID AIR IN PLACE...ANY WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL INCRS THE CHANCE OF AFTN CONV. FIRST ENHANCED
PSBLTY IS RIGHT IN THE BEGINNING OF THE PD AS A SHRT WV DVLPS A CLSD
SFC LOW AND SLIPS THE EVER PRESENT FNT BACK THRU THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING TRWS SUN NGT AND CONT INTO MON AS THE FNTL BNDRY STALLS IN THE
AREA. FNTL BNDRY SHD SAG FAR ENUF SOUTH TO LWR THE CHANCE OF TRWS BY
MID WEEK. WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE PD DRY FOR NOW AS HIPRES
SFC AND ALOFT BLD OVER THE AREA.

FLWD GUID CLOSELY FOR TEMPS WITH ONLY SLGT ADJUSTMENTS. MORFORD

&&

.AVIATION (12/18Z - 13/18Z)...
AREA OF SHRWS AND TRWS MVG THRU WRN NY AND APRCHG THE TAF SITES.
BEST CHANCE OF TRWS...GUSTY WINDS AND LWRD VSBYS AND CIGS IS ACROSS
THE SRN TIER STATIONS AND AVP LTR THIS AFTN. SYR AND UCA MORE LIKELY
TO SEE LGTR PCPN. LGT WINDS AND POOR MIXING OVRNGT SHD RESULT IN
VSBYS AND CIG LWRD INTO THE MVFR RANGE BUT DO NOT XPCY CONDS INTO
THE LIFR RANGE. SLOW IMPRVMT ON SAT...BUT LWRD VSBYS DUE TO HAZE
PSBL SOME STATIONS.

MORFORD

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...SVR TSTM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM SRN TIER AND WRN CATSKILLS
.PA...SVR  TSTM WATCH UNTIL 8 PM NE PA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
318 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-130717-
BRADFORD PA-BROOME NY-CHEMUNG NY-CHENANGO NY-CORTLAND NY-DELAWARE NY-
LACKAWANNA PA-LUZERNE PA-MADISON NY-NORTHERN ONEIDA NY-
NORTHERN WAYNE PA-ONONDAGA NY-OTSEGO NY-PIKE PA-SCHUYLER NY-
SENECA NY-SOUTHERN CAYUGA NY-SOUTHERN ONEIDA NY-SOUTHERN WAYNE PA-
STEUBEN NY-SULLIVAN NY-SUSQUEHANNA PA-TIOGA NY-TOMPKINS NY-
WYOMING PA-YATES NY-
318 AM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
FORECAST TO BECOME UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF OUR REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PADAVONA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
330 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ADDISON                 42.11N 77.23W
08/12/2005                   STEUBEN            NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN

&&

JML

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
337 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005

PAZ038-122030-
BRADFORD PA-
337 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CENTRAL BRADFORD COUNTY...

* AT 331 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WETONA..AND
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ULSTER AND SHESHEQUIN AT 345 PM EDT
  ATHENS AND MILAN AT 350 PM EDT
  LITCHFIELD AND SAYRE AT 355 PM EDT
  WINDHAM AT 405 PM EDT

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN, WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND
POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
338 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005

NYZ024-055-PAZ038-122015-
BRADFORD PA-CHEMUNG NY-TIOGA NY-
338 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 335 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS LOCATED
ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM SPENCER TO PINE CITY..AND MOVING EAST AT
30 MPH.

* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WILLSEYVILLE AT 350 PM EDT
  WELLSBURG... JENKSVILLE AND RIDGEBURY AT 400 PM EDT
  NEWARK VALLEY...WILAWANA AND WAVERLY AT 410 PM EDT
  LITCHFIELD AND SAYRE AT 415 PM EDT

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
358 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0308 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ADDISON                 42.11N 77.23W
08/12/2005                   STEUBEN            NY   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

&&

MC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
429 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ULSTER                  41.85N 76.50W
08/12/2005                   BRADFORD           PA   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE
            COUNTY.

&&

MC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
449 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005

PAZ047-122130-
LUZERNE PA-
449 PM EDT FRI AUG 12 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 446 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  STRONG THUNDERSTORM.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF
  FAIRMOUNT SPGS..AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RED ROCK AND FAIRMOUNT SPGS AT 505 PM EDT
  SWEET VALLEY AND HUNTINGTON MILLS AT 520 PM EDT
  MUHLENBERG AND PIKES CREEK AT 525 PM EDT
  GLEN LYON AND NANTICOKE AT 530 PM EDT

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY