Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
236 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE MORAL...OLD BOUNDARIES NEVER DIE AND IM NOT SURE THEY FADE
AWAY TOO EASILY EITHER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE AGAIN FIRED
WITHIN PERSISTENT AREA OF LLVL CONVERGENCE AND POOLING MOISTURE...
THIS TIME FROM THE TWIN TIERS INTO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. BASICALLY
THIS IS THE COLD FRONT THAT DRIFTED IN ABOUT 3 DAYS AGO. STORMS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE CONVERGENT CORRIDOR WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER NRN ZONES AS UPPER TROF SWINGS BY TO OUR
NORTH. ETA KEEPS SOME LIGHT QPF THRU 12Z WHILE GFS DRIES EVENING
CONVECTION OUT AROUND 06Z. STABILIZATION LATE TONIGHT SHOULD WIN OUT
THIS TIME AS WAVE WILL BE DEPARTING...NOT ARRIVING LIKE LAST NITE.
WILL STILL KEEP A SLGHT CHC ALL NIGHT WITHIN CONVERGENCE...
BUT OVERALL THINGS SHOULD QUIET DOWN TO ISOLD COVERAGE.

ANOTHER WEAK FRONT APPROACHES AREA FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY WITH UPR
JET SUPPORT. AREA BECOMES MODERATELY UNSTABLE AGAIN WITH FAVORABLE
CONVECTIVE INDICES AND CAPE VALUES NEAR 1500 SHOWING UP IN MODEL
PROFILES. NO REASON ATTM TO DOUBT THE PROGS. OLD CONVG ZONE WILL
STILL BE AROUND...AND PSBLY ENHANCED BY PRES FALLS WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL
TROF. SCATTERED TSRA EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND
MID-LATE AFTERNOON NE PA. WIND FIELDS STRONGER THAN TODAY WITH 0-3KM
SHEAR INCRG TO 30-35 KTS BY EVENING. SOME STORM CORES PRETTY HEALTHY
TODAY...SO WITH MORE FVRBL ENVIRONMENT MONDAY A FEW CELLS COULD
BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE.

BOUNDARY SLIPS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING DVLPG THRU TUESDAY.
LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WANES WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND
UPR SUPPORT. NORTHWEST FLOW LOCKS IN BETWEEN RISING HEIGHTS OVER
UPPER MIDWEST AND MARITIME TROF. THETA-E PROGS SHOW LLVL THERMAL AND
MOIST GRADIENT SETS UP JUST TO OUR WEST WITH DRIER AIR NORTHEAST.
WILL MAKE AN ADJUSTMENT TO DRIER FCST FOR TUESDAY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION FOR CHC SHRA/TSRA FROM STEUBEN COUNTY...SOUTH INTO NE PA
WHICH WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE NEAR Q-STATIONARY FRONT.

NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS WITH 850-925 MB TEMPS SUPPORTING 80S AND NEAR
90 URBAN CENTERS. TWEEKED PREV FCST WITH NEW MOS...AND LEANED WITH
WARMER VALUES DURING THE DAY AT EACH STATION. -JAB
&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
ON WRN EDGE OF UL TROF IN NW ATLANTIC SO NW FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF EXTENDED.  WEAK
FORCING COULD SET OFF SOME SHOWERS BUT LEFT OUT AS SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY THEN THU PULLS OFF THE EAST COAST AND RIDGING
ALOFT.  WITH SW FLOW THU INTO FRI HUMIDITY AND A TAD MORE HEAT WILL
RETURN AHEAD OF SECOND COLD FRONT FRI NIGHT.  THIS FRONT HAS MORE
PUSH WITH A WEAK UL TROF...JET AND SHORT WAVE.  QUESTION IS ABOUT
TIMING WITH A FEW MODELS INCLUDING DGEX A FEW HOURS FASTER.  THIS
WOULD MEAN MORE CLOUDS AND LESS HEATING.  AS HAS BEEN THE CASE
LATELY FRONT EXPECTED TO MAKE GOOD PROGRESS OUT OF ONTARIO AND
THROUGH NY THEN STALLS IN PA.  LINGERING CHANCES OF PRECIP INTO SAT
NGT BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY.  FOLLOWED HPC
GUIDANCE CLOSELY. -TAC
&&

.AVIATION (31/18Z - 01/18Z)
VFR EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AGAIN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TWIN TIERS COULD
AFFECT ELM...BGM AND AVP WITH LOW VFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS.  SOME
MVFR DUE TO FOG AND HAZE IN ELM AND AVP LATE TONIGHT.  LIGHT WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH 5 TO 10 KTS OUT OF W FOR AFTER 14Z MONDAY.
MOST OF SHOWERS MONDAY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 18Z. -TAC
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...NONE.
.PA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
255 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-010655-
BRADFORD PA-BROOME NY-CHEMUNG NY-CHENANGO NY-CORTLAND NY-DELAWARE NY-
LACKAWANNA PA-LUZERNE PA-MADISON NY-NORTHERN ONEIDA NY-
NORTHERN WAYNE PA-ONONDAGA NY-OTSEGO NY-PIKE PA-SCHUYLER NY-
SENECA NY-SOUTHERN CAYUGA NY-SOUTHERN ONEIDA NY-SOUTHERN WAYNE PA-
STEUBEN NY-SULLIVAN NY-SUSQUEHANNA PA-TIOGA NY-TOMPKINS NY-
WYOMING PA-YATES NY-
255 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

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