Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
250 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE FRONT IS NOW MAKING PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA
WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD IN MORE WARM AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH PLENTY OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS BEHIND. WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 60S WITH FROPA.
MODELS ARE A LITTLE FAST WITH THE FRONT, WHICH HAS BEEN SLOWED BY
WAVES DEVELOPING AND MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT THAT THE
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS EVENING, AND THAT THE
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL LINGER UNTIL ABOUT MIDNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTH.

DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD THRU THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES. LOWS IN THE 50S. -03

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI NITE-WEDS)...
GENERALLY A MEAN RIDGE WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO KEEP THINGS
FAIR AND SEASONABLE AROUND THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE TUESDAY TO BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. -JAB
&&

.AVIATION (27/18Z - 28/18Z)...
COLD FRONT CROSSING THRU TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GENERALLY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AND STRONG TSRA DVLPG AHEAD.
LOCALIZED PERIODS OF IFR VSBY/CIG SHOWING UP AT SYR-ITH AND UPSTREAM
AT FZY...BUT BELIVE THIS WILL MIX OUT IN NEXT FEW HRS. FRONT PASSES
AVP AROUND 23Z...WITH SHRA TAPERING OFF TWD 03Z-06Z. GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND SOME SCT CLRG PSBL. GIVEN
THAT...ELM AND AVP LIKELY TO DROP TO IFR-LIFR IN FG AFT 09Z. COULD
OCCUR ALSO AT UCA...BUT DRY ADVECTION A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FURTHER
SOUTH...AND MAY PRECLUDE DENSE FOG DVLPG. -JAB

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 800 PM FOR DELAWARE AND SULLIVAN.
.PA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 800 PM FOR LACHAWANNA,
LUZERNE, WAYNE AND PIKE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
240 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-PAZ038-280637-
BRADFORD PA-BROOME NY-CHEMUNG NY-CHENANGO NY-CORTLAND NY-DELAWARE NY-
MADISON NY-NORTHERN ONEIDA NY-ONONDAGA NY-OTSEGO NY-SCHUYLER NY-
SENECA NY-SOUTHERN CAYUGA NY-SOUTHERN ONEIDA NY-STEUBEN NY-TIOGA NY-
TOMPKINS NY-YATES NY-
240 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AHEAD OF A SLOWLY ADVANCING COLD
FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

NYZ062-PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072-280637-
LACKAWANNA PA-LUZERNE PA-NORTHERN WAYNE PA-PIKE PA-SOUTHERN WAYNE PA-
SULLIVAN NY-SUSQUEHANNA PA-WYOMING PA-
240 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAS
T PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY IN THE WARM AIR
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
131 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

NYZ024-025-044-045-055-056-271830-
BROOME NY-CHEMUNG NY-CHENANGO NY-CORTLAND NY-TIOGA NY-TOMPKINS NY-
131 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 128 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
  WINDS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
  ELMIRA TO CORTLAND...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MARATHON AT 145 PM EDT
  WAVERLY AT 155 PM EDT
  OWEGO AT 205 PM EDT
  NORWICH AT 210 PM EDT
  ENDICOTT AT 215 PM EDT
  JOHNSON CITY AT 220 PM EDT
  BINGHAMTON AT 225 PM EDT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
248 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

NYZ057-271930-
DELAWARE NY-
248 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

...LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 246 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY
  WINDS.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 7
  MILES NORTH OF ROXBURY TO PEABROOK..AND MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

* STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  WOLF HOLLOW AT 255 PM EDT
  NEW KINGSTON AT 300 PM EDT
  ROXBURY AT 310 PM EDT
  HALCOTTSVILLE AT 325 PM EDT
  MARGARETVILLE AND ARKVILLE AT 330 PM EDT

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
254 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

PAZ047-272000-
LUZERNE PA-
254 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 250 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF EAST BERWICK...
  AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HAZLETON AT 340 PM EDT

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS. OTHER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY AFFECTING
LUZERNE COUNTY WILL CONTINUE...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CONTAIN LARGE HAIL
OR STRONG WIND GUSTS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY

JAB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
353 PM EDT WED JUL 27 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GRAHAMSVILLE            41.85N 74.57W
07/27/2005                   SULLIVAN           NY   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN

&&

MJC

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