Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
212 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

.SHORT TERM...
WARM AND INCREASINGLY MOIST RIDGE OVER NORTHEASTERN CONUS THIS
MORNING. SHORT WAVE TROF DIGGING THROUGH MI TODAY WILL INCREASE UL
JET TO 80 KTS...WITH SOUTH CENTRAL NY AND NORTHERN PA FIRMLY IN THE
FAVORED RIGHT REAR QUAD. REMNANTS OF CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING TOWARD
WESTERN FA ATTM IN THE FORM OF MID-DECK. REMNANTS WILL LEAVE A FEW
BOUNDARIES THIS MORNING AND THESE WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE FOCUS.

PREFRONTAL TROF WILL APPROACH WESTERN FA EARLY AFTERNOON. SFC DEW
POINTS PROGGED TO REACH MID/UPR 60S PRIOR TO TROF ARRIVAL. CAPE
VALUES OF 1500+ J/KG APPEAR ATTAINABLE. LITTLE LOW LEVEL DIR SHEAR
ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. A LOOK WESTWARD INTO MI SHOWS IMPRESSIVE
HODOGRAPH THIS EVENING HOWEVER LL JET IS TRANSLATING TOWARD ONTARIO.
THEREFORE THINK STRAIGHT LINE WIND / SQUALL LINE SCENARIO MOST
LIKELY DESPITE STEEP LL LAPSE RATES. OVERALL EVENT LOOKS LESS
IMPRESSIVE 12 HOURS OUT THAN IT DID 36 HOURS OUT.

MODEL PRECIP WATER AROUND 1.25 INCHES VERIFIES WELL WITH UPSTREAM
SOUNDINGS SO HEAVY RAINERS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. PLAYED LIKELY
POPS THIS EVENT AND FORECAST IT BLEED OVER INTO EVENING PERIOD.

WE SHOULD RAPIDLY CLEAR TUESDAY MORNING AS FRONT PASSES NORTHEAST.
FRONT BY THEN WILL BE MORE OF A BOUNDARY OF SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR,
RATHER THAN COOL. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN BL TEMPS. FACTOR IN
APPRECIABLE SUN AND TEMPS SHOULD BE QUITE WARM AGAIN. SECONDARY COOL
PUSH MAY KNOCK TEMPS DOWN BY WEDNESDAY.  DJP
&&

.LONG TERM...
SUMMERTIME PTRN TO START OFF THE LONG TERM PD. UPPER RDG BUILDS OVER
THE ERN US AND GNRLY HOLDS THRU THE PD. VARIOUS SHRT WVS ATTEMPT TO
FLATTEN LNG WV RDG...BUT DO LTL TO DISPLACE IT. MODELS HAVE TENDED
TO OVER WEAKEN THE RDG IN THE FACE OF THESE SHRT WVS...AND GENERATE
TO MUCH CONV UNDER THE RDG. SO...MODEL QPF FIELDS AMD MOS POPS HAVE
NOT BEEN RELIED ON TOO MUCH IN THE LONG TERM. VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PD WILL BE DRY AND GENERALLY CLR...ALTHOUGH WITH HTG AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY...EVEN WEAKENING SHRT WVS COULD TRIGGER CONV AS THEY
ROUND THE RDG.

TIMING IS DFCLT WITH THE SHRT WVS...BUT PRBLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PCPN WILL BE ON FRI AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE GFS BRINGS ENERGY UP
FROM THE SOUTH AND WRAPS IT INTO THE AREA. GFS QPF AND MOISTURE
FIELDS PRBLY OVERDONE BUT WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT AND
GO WITH LOW CHANCE POPS AT THE END OF THE PD.
&&

.AVIATION (06/12Z - 07/12Z)...
ANOTHER FOGGY START PARTICULARLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS. HOWEVER FOG
NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS DENSE FOR AS LONG A PERIOD THIS MORNING, DUE
TO A LITTLE MORE MIXING FROM INCREASING WIND FLOW. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT...BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
DJP
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...NONE.
.PA...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
212 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-070610-
BRADFORD PA-BROOME NY-CHEMUNG NY-CHENANGO NY-CORTLAND NY-DELAWARE NY-
LACKAWANNA PA-LUZERNE PA-MADISON NY-NORTHERN ONEIDA NY-
NORTHERN WAYNE PA-ONONDAGA NY-OTSEGO NY-PIKE PA-SCHUYLER NY-
SENECA NY-SOUTHERN CAYUGA NY-SOUTHERN ONEIDA NY-SOUTHERN WAYNE PA-
STEUBEN NY-SULLIVAN NY-SUSQUEHANNA PA-TIOGA NY-TOMPKINS NY-
WYOMING PA-YATES NY-
212 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

PADAVONA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
946 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-062200-
BRADFORD-BROOME-CHEMUNG-CHENANGO-CORTLAND-DELAWARE-LACKAWANNA-
LUZERNE-MADISON-NORTHERN ONEIDA-NORTHERN WAYNE-ONONDAGA-OTSEGO-PIKE-
SCHUYLER-SENECA-SOUTHERN CAYUGA-SOUTHERN ONEIDA-SOUTHERN WAYNE-
STEUBEN-SULLIVAN-SUSQUEHANNA-TIOGA-TOMPKINS-WYOMING-YATES-
946 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM FOR ALL OF
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WITH A SURFACE FRONT EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO
PRODUCE FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS
FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...OR
VISIT OUR INTERNET WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV.

MUNDSCHENK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1044 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

NYZ009-018-036-037-061545-
MADISON NY-ONEIDA NY-ONONDAGA NY-
1044 AM EDT MON JUN 6 2005

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO THE AREA...

* AT 1040 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
  INDICATED SEVERAL DEVELOPING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
  PRODUCING SMALL HAIL.  THESE STORMS WERE SCATTERED ACROSS ONONDAGA
  MADISON AND ONEIDA COUNTIES... AND WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT
  AROUND 30 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CHITTENANGO AND KIRKVILLE AT 1050 AM EDT
  SULLIVAN AND PERRYVILLE AT 1055 AM EDT
  CANASTOTA AND WAMPSVILLE AT 1100 AM EDT
  ONEIDA AND ONEIDA CASTLE AT 1105 AM EDT
  VERONA AND SHERRILL AT 1110 AM EDT

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

LAT...LON 4307 7619 4290 7610 4312 7519 4341 7520

MSE