Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Binghamton, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
325 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2005

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...

COMPLEX FCST AGAIN WITH UPR LOW MOVG SLOWLY NE ACRS THE RGN. LOTS OF
FLOODING WITH MANY COUNTIES UNDER AS STATE OF EMERGENCY. HARDEST HIT
AREAS APPEAR TO BE FROM THE POCONOS INTO THE CATSKILLS. AREA OF
TSTMS ASSCD WITH S/WV TRACKING ACRS NE PA INTO CNTRL NY IS ONLY
ADDING TO THE CONSIDERABLE FLOODING WOES.

HYDRO CONCERNS OBVIOUSLY THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MRNG, BUT SOME WINTER
WX ALSO A CONCERN. CRNT RAIN/SNOW LINE RUNS APPROX ALONG THE 925 MB
-1C LINE AS SHOWN IN THE ETA12. MDLS SHOW SOME 850 MB COOLING ACRS
MUCH OF UPSTATE NY AND NE PA TDA, BUT ETA12 925 TEMPS ARE FCST TO
REMAIN ABV 0C TDA FOR AREAS ALONG AND E OF I-81. ETA PROFILES SHOW
CHGOVER AT ELM ARND 14Z, ITH 21Z WITH SYR AND BGM NOT UNTIL AFTER
00Z. THESE TIME ARE DEBATABLE SO WONT GET REAL SPECIFIC IN THE
TIMING AT THIS POINT.

ALWAYS BUST POTNL WITH THESE CUTOFFS, BUT WE PLAN ON
MIXING/CHANGING OVER THE RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND
BRADFORD COUNTY TDA WITH POTNL FOR AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUM MAINLY
ACRS THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. WILL MENTION PSBL MIX INTO THE
SYR/BGM/AVP AREAS BY LATE TDA BUT NO ACCUMS. TNGT, XPCT ANY -SHRA
ACRS ERN ZONES TO FINALLY SWITCH OVER. WILL FCST ACCUMS BLO ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR TNGT WITH 1-3 NRN FINGER LAKES INTO WRN MOHAWK VLY, AN
INCH OR TWO TWIN TIERS. LOOKS LIKE NW WINDS 15-25 LATER TNGT AND
TMRW.

&&

.LONG TERM...
THE SLOW MOVING...FLOOD STORM WILL LOSE IT/S GRIP BY MONDAY NIGHT
WITH LINGERING MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ENDING. MED RANGE MODELS
THEN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT WEATHER WILL BRIEFLY DRY OUT UNDER
RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. ANOTHER POWERFUL LOW DROPS INTO
THE TN/OH VALLEY LATE NEXT WEEK AND MOVE SLOWLY. MODELS SHOW FCST
AREA TO BE IN THE FOCUS AREA OF BAROCLINIC ZONE UNDER UPR JET...THUS
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING. WITH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT...DESPITE
PRETTY GOOD MODEL AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT...WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS AT THIS TIME RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION (03/06Z - 04/06Z)...
MAIN CONCENTRATION OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY
OVER NORTHEAST PA AND IS ROTATING WNW AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW. EXPECT SCT THUNDERSTORMS AT AVP... ELM AND BGM DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY LOW MVFR CONDITIONS...
WITH CIGS AVERAGING BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KFT AND VSBYS AVERAGING 3 TO 5
MILES IN RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY THIS AFTERNOON... CHANGING TO
ALL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT. VSBYS IN SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
SHOULD BE MAINLY ABOVE 2 MILES WITH CIGS FROM 1 TO 3 KFT. - MSE

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO SEVERE FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF THE BGM
CWA...WITH RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LVLS FCST AT SOME LOCATIONS. SEE
PRODUCTS ALBFFSBGM, ALBFFWBGM, ALBFLWBGM, ALBRVSBGM FOR DETAILS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...FLOOD WATCH TODAY THRU SUN ALL ZONES.
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AT POINTS IN CHEMUNG, SUSQUEHANNA AND DELAWARE
BASINS.
.PA...FLOOD WATCH TODAY THRU SUN ALL ZONES.
RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AT POINTS IN THE SUSQUEHANNA BASIN.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
445 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2005

NYZ009-015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062-PAZ038>040-043-
044-047-048-072-041100-
BRADFORD PA-BROOME NY-CHEMUNG NY-CHENANGO NY-CORTLAND NY-DELAWARE NY-
LACKAWANNA PA-LUZERNE PA-MADISON NY-NORTHERN ONEIDA NY-
NORTHERN WAYNE PA-ONONDAGA NY-OTSEGO NY-PIKE PA-SCHUYLER NY-
SENECA NY-SOUTHERN CAYUGA NY-SOUTHERN ONEIDA NY-SOUTHERN WAYNE PA-
STEUBEN NY-SULLIVAN NY-SUSQUEHANNA PA-TIOGA NY-TOMPKINS NY-
WYOMING PA-YATES NY-
445 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY...
MAJOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH MAIN STEM RIVERS LIKELY TO REMAIN
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL CAUSE
ADDITIONAL SMALL STREAM AND URBAN FLOOD PROBLEMS TODAY. FLOOD
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AND MANY COUNTIES - SEE
PRODUCTS ALBFLWBGM, ALBFFSBGM, ALBFLSBGM AND ALBRVSBGM FOR DETAILS.

THE RAIN WILL MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW TODAY FOR AREAS WEST OF
INTERSTATE 81. ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR SO ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF BRADFORD COUNTY, AND THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER
AND FINGER LAKES OF NEW YORK. ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT FROM THE FINGER LAKES INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO TUESDAY FROM THIS
WEEKENDS STORM. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM COULD BRING MORE RAIN LATE THIS
WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
FORMAL SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY. RAINFALL SPOTTERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY THEIR REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON.